Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Lipids bearing extruded-spheronized pellets for extended release of poorly soluble antiemetic agent—Meclizine HCl

Abstract Background Antiemetic agent Meclizine HCl, widely prescribed in vertigo, is available only in immediate release dosage forms. The approved therapeutic dose and shorter elimination half-life make Meclizine HCl a potential candidate to be formulated in extended release dosage form. This study was aimed to develop extended release Meclizine HCl pellets by extrusion spheronization using natural and synthetic lipids. Influence of lipid type, drug/lipid ratio and combinations of different lipids on drug release and sphericity of pellets were evaluated. Methods Thirty two formulations were prepared with four different lipids, Glyceryl monostearate (Geleol®), Glyceryl palmitostearate (Precirol®), Glyceryl behenate (Compritol®) and Carnauba wax, utilized either alone or in combinations of drug/lipid ratio of 1:0.5–1:3. Dissolution studies were performed at variable pH and release kinetics were analyzed. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was conducted and no drug lipid interaction was found. Results Sphericity indicated by shape factor (eR) varied with type and concentration of lipids: Geleol® (eR = 0.891–0.997), Precirol® (eR = 0.611–0.743), Compritol® (eR = 0.665–0.729) and Carnauba wax (eR = 0.499-0.551). Highly spherical pellets were obtained with Geleol® (Aspect ratio = 1.005–1.052) whereas irregularly shaped pellets were formed using Carnauba wax (Aspect ratio = 1.153–1.309). Drug release was effectively controlled by three different combinations of lipids: (i) Geleol® and Compritol®, (ii) Geleol® and Carnauba wax and (iii) Geleol®, Compritol® and Carnauba wax. Scanning electron microscopy of Compritol® pellets showed smooth surface with pores, whereas, irregular rough surface with hollow depressions was observed in Carnauba wax pellets. Energy dispersive spectroscopy indicated elemental composition of lipid matrix pellets. Kinetics of (i) Geleol® and Compritol® pellets, explained by Korsmeyer-Peppas (R2 = 0.978–0.993) indicated non-Fickian diffusion (n = 0.519-0.597). Combinations of (ii) Geleol® and Carnauba wax and (iii) Geleol®, Compritol® and Carnauba wax pellets followed Zero-order (R2 = 0.991–0.995). Similarity test was performed using combination of Geleol® and Compritol® (i) as a reference. Conclusions Matrices for the extended release of Meclizine HCl from extruded-spheronized pellets were successfully formed by using three lipids (Geleol®, Compritol® and Carnauba wax) in different combinations. The encapsulated pellets of Meclizine HCl can be effectively used for treatment of motion sickness, nausea and vertigo for extended period of time

Fabrication and performance evaluation of blood compatible hemodialysis membrane using carboxylic multiwall carbon nanotubes and low molecular weight polyvinylpyrrolidone based nanocomposites

This study focused to optimize the performance of polyethersulfone (PES) hemodialysis (HD) membrane using carboxylic functionalized multiwall carbon nanotubes (c-MWCNT) and lower molecular weight grade of polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP-k30). Initially, MWCNT were chemically functionalized by acid treatment and nanocomposites (NCs) of PVP-k30 and c-MWCNT were formed and subsequently blended with PES polymer. The spectra of FTIR of the HD membranes revealed that NCs has strong hydrogen bonding and their addition to PES polymer improved the capillary system of membranes as confirmed by Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM) and leaching of the additive decreased to 2% and hydrophilicity improved to 22%. The pore size and porosity of NCs were also enhanced and rejection rate was achieved in the establish dialysis range (<60 kDa). The antifouling studies had shown that NCs membrane exhibited 30% less adhesion of protein with 80% flux recovery ratio. The blood compatibility assessment disclosed that NCs based membranes showed prolonged thrombin and prothrombin clotting times, lessened production of fibrinogen cluster, and greatly suppressed adhesion of blood plasma than a pristine PES membrane. The results also unveiled that PVP-k30/NCs improved the surface properties of the membrane and the urea and creatinine removal increased to 72% and 75% than pure PES membranes. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A: 107A: 513–525, 2019

Nanoemulsion-based dissolving microneedle arrays for enhanced intradermal and transdermal delivery

The development of dissolving microneedles (DMN) is one of the advanced technologies in transdermal drug delivery systems, which precisely deliver the drugs through a rapid dissolution of polymers after insertion into the skin. In this study, we fabricated nanoemulsion-loaded dissolving microneedle (DMN) arrays for intradermal and transdermal drug delivery. For this task, model drug (amphotericin B, AmB)-loaded nanoemulsion (NE) were prepared by the probe-sonication method. AmB-loaded-NE was prepared using Capmul MCM C-8 EP/NF, Tween(®) 80, poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA-10 kDa), and poly (vinyl pyrrolidone) (PVP-360 kDa or K29/32) by using SpeedMixer™, followed by probe-sonication and evaluated for particle size and polydispersity index (PDI). Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) was also used to assess the particle size before and after DMN casting. AmB-NE embedded DMN arrays were found to be strong enough, revealed efficient skin insertion, and penetrated down to the fourth layer (depth ≈ 508 μm) of Parafilm M(®) (validated skin model). Ex vivo skin deposition experiments in full-thickness neonatal porcine demonstrated that after 24 h, AmB-NE-DMN arrays were able to deposit 111.05 ± 48.4 µg/patch AmB into the skin. At the same time, transdermal porcine skin permeation studies showed significantly higher permeability of AmB (29.60 ± 8.23 μg/patch) from AmB-NE-DMN compared to MN-free AmB-NE patches (5.0 ± 6.15 μg/patch) over 24 h. Antifungal studies of optimized AmB-NE-DMN, AmB-loaded discs and drug-free DMN against Candida albicans, confirmed the synergistic activity of Campul-MCM C-8, used in the nanoemulsion formulation. This study establishes that nanoemulsion based dissolving microneedle may serve as an efficient system for intradermal as well as transdermal drug delivery. [Image: see text

Effect of lipid and cellulose based matrix former on the release of highly soluble drug from extruded/spheronized, sintered and compacted pellets

Abstract Background The study was to develop an extended release (ER) encapsulated and compacted pellets of Atenolol using hydrophobic (wax based and polymeric based) and high viscosity grade hydrophilic matrix formers to control the release of this highly water soluble drug by extrusion/spheronization (ES). Atenolol is used for cardiovascular diseases and available as an immediate release (IR) tablet dosage form. The lipids, Carnauba wax (CW), Glyceryl monostearate (GMS) and cellulose based i.e. Hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) and Ethyl cellulose (EC) were used in preparing Atenolol ER pellets. Thermal sintering and compaction techniques were also applied to control the burst release of Atenolol. Method For this purpose, thirty-six trial formulations (F1-F36) were designed by Response Surface Methodology (RSM), using Design-Expert 10 software, keeping (HPMC K4M, K15 M & K100 M), (EC 7FP, 10FP & 100FP), waxes (GMS, & CW), their combinations, sintering temperature and duration, as input variables. Dissolution studies were performed in pH, 1.2, 4.5 and 6.8 dissolution media. Drug release kinetics using different models such as zero order, first order, Korsmeyer-Peppas, Hixon Crowell, Baker-Lonsdale and Higuchi kinetics were studied with the help of DDsolver, an excel based add-in program. Results The formulations F35 and F36 showed compliance with Korsmeyer-Peppas Super case II transport model (R2 = 0.975–0.971) in dissolution medium pH 4.5. No drug excipient interaction observed by FTIR. Stereomicroscopy showed that sintered combination pellets, (F35), were highly spherical (AR = 1.061, and sphericity = 0.943). The cross-sectional SEM magnification (at 7000X) of F34 and F35 showed dense cross-linking. The results revealed that the optimized formulations were F35 (sintered pellets) and F36 (compacted pellets) effectively controlling the drug release for 12 h. Conclusion Extended-release encapsulated, and compacted pellets were successfully prepared after the combination of lipids CW (10%) and GMS (20%) with EC (10FP 20% & 100FP 20%). Sintering and compaction, in addition, stabilized the system and controlled the initial burst release of the drug. Extended release (ER) Atenolol is an effective alternative of IR tablets in controlling hypertension and treating other cardiovascular diseases

Super-swelling Hydrogel-forming Microneedle based Transdermal Drug Delivery: Mathematical Modelling, Simulation and Experimental Validation

Super-swelling hydrogel-forming microneedles (HFMNs) based transdermal drug delivery (TDD) is gaining significant interest due to their non-invasiveness and ability todeliver a wide range of drugs. The HFMNs swell by imbibing interstitial skin fluid (ISF), and they facilitate drug transport from the reservoir attached at the base into the skin without polymer dissolution. To develop HFMNs for practical applications, a complete understanding of the drug transport mechanism is required, allowing for controlled TDD and geometrical optimisation. A three-phase system consisting of a reservoir, microneedle, and skin is considered. A mathematical model is developed to incorporate the drug binding within the matrix of the compartment, which was not considered earlier. Super-swelling nature of the HFMNs is incorporated through the swelling ratio obtained experimentally for a polymer. The results are validated with in vitro diffusion studies of ibuprofen sodium (IBU) across excised porcine skin, showing that around 20% of the loaded IBU in lyophilised wafer was delivered in 24 hours. It was observed that increasing IBU solubility in reservoir can achieve high drug transport across the skin. The developed model is shown to be in good agreement with the experimental data. It is concluded that the proposed model can be considered a tool with predictive design and development of super-swelling HFMNs based TDD systems.</p

Perspectives about pandemic influenza and its prophylactic measures among final year pharmacy students in Karachi, Pakistan

Aims: In flu pandemics, pharmacy students' knowledge, attitudes, and practices are critical to save patients life. The objective of study was to determine the knowledge of and attitude toward the pandemic influenza among the pharmacy students of Karachi, Pakistan. Settings and Designs: The cross-sectional study was conducted from September to December 2014 by adopting a prevalidated questionnaire distributed to senior pharmacy students (final year) in seven private and public sector universities of Karachi. Materials and Methods: A total of 443 pharmacy students responded the survey. Data regarding sociodemographic characteristics of the students, perceptions, level of knowledge and attitudes toward influenza, and prophylactic measures were collected. Statistical Analysis: To compute the correlation between different variables, data were analyzed using Pearson's Chi-square statistic method. P< 0.05 was considered statistical significance for all analysis. Results: Influenza was identified as a viral disease (n = 423; 95.48%) and 282 (71.2%) students correctly identified it as disease affecting humans and pigs. Textbooks reported as most common source of knowledge (n = 282; 64%). Most common symptoms identified were fever (81.94%), sore throat (64.1%), and nonproductive cough (43.34%). The most common preventive measures were covering nose and mouth (268; 60.5%) and wearing protective coverings (254; 57.3%). Only half of the students correctly reported about the route of administration (180; 40.6%) and strains in vaccine (186; 41.98%). The best time for administration of such vaccine was known by only 156 pharmacy students (35.34%). The majority of the students (82.6%) had no idea about the manifestation of influenza pandemic. Knowledge regarding influenza differed according to gender and institutions differing in their affiliation with tertiary care hospitals. Conclusion: It was observed that knowledge about disease progression, transmission, vaccination, and treatment in pharmacy students, especially those who are not getting clinical training in tertiary care hospitals was limited. There is an urgent need to develop awareness programs to increase knowledge of influenza among clinical pharmacists as they are more susceptible to infections and community as a whole. © 2017 Journal of Pharmacy and Bioallied Sciences | Published by Wolters Kluwer - Medknow

Deferasirox nanosuspension loaded dissolving microneedles for intradermal delivery

Microneedles are minimally invasive systems that can deliver drugs intradermally without pain and bleeding and can advantageously replace the hypodermal needles and oral routes of delivery. Deferasirox (DFS) is an iron chelator employed in several ailments where iron overload plays an important role in disease manifestation. In this study, DFS was formulated into a nanosuspension (NSs) through wet media milling employing PVA as a stabilizer and successfully loaded in polymeric dissolving microneedles (DMNs). The release studies for DFS-NS clearly showed a threefold increased dissolution rate compared to pure DFS. The mechanical characterization of DFS-NS-DMNs revealed that the system was sufficiently strong for efficacious skin penetration. Optical coherence tomography images confirmed an insertion of up to 378 µm into full-thickness porcine skin layers. The skin deposition studies showed 60% drug deposition from NS-DMN, which was much higher than from the DFS-NS transdermal patch (DFS-NS-TP) (without needles) or pure DFS-DMNs. Moreover, DFS-NS without DMNs did not deposit well inside the skin, indicating that DMNs played an important role in effectively delivering drugs inside the skin. Therefore, it is evident from the findings that loading DFS-NS into novel DMN devices can effectively deliver DFS transdermally

Super-swelling hydrogel-forming microneedle based transdermal drug delivery: Mathematical modelling, simulation and experimental validation

Super-swelling hydrogel-forming microneedles (HFMNs) based transdermal drug delivery (TDD) is gaining significant interest due to their non-invasiveness and ability todeliver a wide range of drugs. The HFMNs swell by imbibing interstitial skin fluid (ISF), and they facilitate drug transport from the reservoir attached at the base into the skin without polymer dissolution. To develop HFMNs for practical applications, a complete understanding of the drug transport mechanism is required, allowing for controlled TDD and geometrical optimisation. A three-phase system consisting of a reservoir, microneedle, and skin is considered. A mathematical model is developed to incorporate the drug binding within the matrix of the compartment, which was not considered earlier. Super-swelling nature of the HFMNs is incorporated through the swelling ratio obtained experimentally for a polymer. The results are validated with in vitro diffusion studies of ibuprofen sodium (IBU) across excised porcine skin, showing that around 20% of the loaded IBU in lyophilised wafer was delivered in 24 hours. It was observed that increasing IBU solubility in reservoir can achieve high drug transport across the skin. The developed model is shown to be in good agreement with the experimental data. It is concluded that the proposed model can be considered a tool with predictive design and development of super-swelling HFMNs based TDD systems.</p