What determines the growth of services sector in Pakistan? A comparison of ARDL bound testing and time varying parametric estimation with general to specific approach

Abstract. This empirical study followed time varying parametric approach (Kalman Filter) and auto regression distributed lag (ARDL) with general to specific approach to find out relevant macroeconomic determinants of Pakistan’s services sector’s growth. To our best of knowledge, no author has made such study that employed these estimation techniques to find out determinants of services sector growth in Pakistan while employing general to specific approach. Current study bridges this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. Main findings of the study are that rolling regression estimates of explanatory variables justify the use of Kalman filtering approach. Results show that inflation has negative effect on services sector output growth in case of TVP approach. This result does match with ARDL results.  Net foreign direct investment has positive and significant effect on services sector output growth in both techniques of estimation. Gross national expenditures with positive effect are the relevant significant determinants of services sector output growth at five percent significance level in case of TVP approach while relationship was insignificant in case of ARDL estimation. Impact of remittances received on services sector growth is negative in case of time varying parametric approach. This result is different from ARDL results where relationship is positive and significant at five percent level of significance. All the one step ahead state vectors confirmed the stability of models in case of time varying parametric approach. Cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of recursive residuals square (CUSUMQ) also confirmed the stability of results of auto regression distributed lag. Based on these empirical findings, we conclude that government should focus on service sector growth augmenting factors while formulating any policy relevant to the concerned sector. Keywords. Services sector, Kalman filter, Rolling regression.JEL. C22, O11, O40

Factors affecting the services sector growth in Pakistan: A time varying parametric approach

Abstract. This empirical study followed time varying parametric approach (Kalman Filter) to find out relevant determinants of Pakistan’s services sector’s growth. To our best of knowledge, no author has made such study that could collect a number of variables from existing empirical literature and capture the impact of structural changes on relevant determinants of services sector growth in Pakistan while employing Kalman Filtering approach. Current study bridges this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. Main findings of the study are that rolling regression estimates of explanatory variables justify the use of Kalman filtering approach. The state space Results show that foreign direct investment and gross national expenditures are positive and significant determinants of services sector growth while inflation, domestic credit to private sector, gross fixed capital formation, and remittances received and trade openness have negative impact on services sector growth. One step ahead graph inflation, domestic credit to private sector, foreign direct investment, gross national expenditures, gross fixed capital formation, remittances received and trade openness indicate that model estimated was stable as critical bounds(dotted line) in graph 2 are not crossed by central line. Based on empirical findings, it is recommended the concerned authorities to augment gross national expenditures and foreign direct investment to achieve long run services sector growth for better economic growth in country.Keywords. Services sector, Kalman filter, Rolling regression, Inflation, Foreign direct investment.JEL. F21, F40, N57, O13

Comparison of Efficiencies of Neurological Physical Examination, Neurothesiometer and PainDETECT Questionnaire in Diagnosing Diabetic Neuropathy

Objective: To compare the efficacies of neurological physical examination, neurothesiometer and PainDETECT questionnaire in diagnosing diabetic neuropathy. Study Design: Prospective cross-sectional Place and Duration of Study: Department of General Medicine, Nishtar Hospital Multan, Pakistan from 1st December 2018 to 10th March 2019. Materials and Methods: One hundred and four patients of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes visiting the outdoor department were included in this study. They were assessed by lab results of glycosylated hemoglobin, fasting and random blood sugar levels and neurological physical examination. Results: The physical examination with Michigan Neuropathy Screening instrument showed that around 29 of the patients were having established neuropathy. The PainDETECT questionnaire on the other hand showed about 42 patients having a definitive neuropathy while the neurothesiometer showed that 79 of the total patients had varying degrees of neuropathy. Conclusion: The neurothesiometer is a better diagnostic tool for diagnosing diabetic neuropathy in patients

Characterization of carbon monoxide, methane and nonmethane hydrocarbons in emerging cities of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and in Singapore

We investigate the composition of 63 C2-C10 nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO), in Jeddah, Mecca, and Madina (Saudi Arabia), in Lahore, (Pakistan), and in Singapore. We established a database with which to compare and contrast NMHCs in regions where ambient levels and emissions are poorly characterized, but where conditions are favorable to the formation of tropospheric ozone, and where measurements are essential for improving emission inventories and modeling. This dataset will also serve as a base for further analysis of air pollution in Western Saudi Arabia including, but not limited to, the estimation of urban emissions and long range pollution transport from these regions. The measured species showed enhanced levels in all Saudi Arabian cities compared to the local background but were generally much lower than in Lahore. In Madina, vehicle exhaust was the dominant NMHC source, as indicated by enhanced levels of combustion products and by the good correlation between NMHCs and CO, while in Jeddah and Mecca a combination of sources needs to be considered. Very high NMHC levels were measured in Lahore, and elevated levels of CH4 in Lahore were attributed to natural gas. When we compared our results with 2010 emissions from the MACCity global inventory, we found discrepancies in the relative contribution of NMHCs between the measurements and the inventory. In all cities, alkenes (especially ethene and propene) dominated the hydroxyl radical (OH) reactivity (kOH) because of their great abundance and their relatively fast reaction rates with OH

Addressing Mental Health and Intentional Self-Harm in Afghan Patients

Refugee and immigrant populations in the United States are at an elevated risk for a variety of mental health challenges. Post-traumatic stress, social isolation, experiencing racism, and elevated unemployment are among the correlates of increased mental health risks, including self-harming and suicidal behaviors. Among other factors, recent Afghan refugees or immigrants may encounter these issues due to the limited experience and resources available for healthcare providers working with them. To support healthcare providers in delivering care that is evidence-based and culturally appropriate, an educational resource was developed for identifying and then providing initial care for the mental health needs of the Afghan population. Following a literature review, multiple experts in working with Afghan patients (psychiatrists, other mental health providers, and primary care physicians) were interviewed about providing assessment and treatment services for this population. This information was consolidated to create an educational resource that can be delivered as a self-directed E-Learning module to be broadly distributed. The expectation is that these materials will support healthcare and other providers in their efforts to deliver high-quality, culturally informed mental health care for the Afghan refugee population.https://scholarworks.uvm.edu/fmclerk/2218/thumbnail.jp

Participative Management in Modern Organizations: A critical review

Participation as a social system is a complex and dynamic product of human action. Despite certain limitations, it has great poten-tial in addressing many debilitating issues confronting organizations. Regardless of whether it is intentionally and rationally created or whether it emerges as consequence of many and sometimes fortuitous factors, participation serves a variety of values and goals and takes on different structural and operational properties in various configurations resulting in a variety of desirable outcomes.  However, much depends on the prevalent culture in an organization. The study in question attempts to dig out theoretical underpinnings of participative management and its relevance for contemporary organizations by critically reviewing the existing literature

THE REASONS FOR TRADITIONAL GAMES LOSING POPULARITY: A CASE STUDY OF SKHY (CALF) IN NIHAGDARA, KP (PAKISTAN)

Traditional games including Kabaddi, Chilli, and Skhy etc., played in Nihagdara (District Dir Upper) have been under pressure for the last two decades due to the advent of modern games such as cricket, volleyball, and video games.  The fervor for modern games seems to be cultural than concerns about health, psychological wellbeing, and social interaction.  Skhy (Calf), which was so popular in Nihagdara, has particularly suffered over the last years.  This study explores the reasons for the downfall of traditional games with special focus on Skhy in Jatgram, Rambial, and Maskari.  Using the case study method, the research collected data from both adults and youngsters through interviews and focus group discussion.  Data was analyzed through descriptive statistics (Frequency Distribution) to make sense of how and why Skhy became unpopular.  The results show that cultural onslaught has been the main reason for downfall of traditional games including Skhy in addition to the apathy of local community in preserving its traditions and sports