Optimizing Reservoir Operations to Adapt to 21st Century Expectations of Climate and Social Change in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

Reservoir systems in the western US are managed to serve two main competing purposes: to reduce flooding during the winter and spring, and to provide water supply for multiple uses during the summer. Because the storage capacity of a reservoir cannot be used for both flood damage reduction and water storage at the same time, these two uses are traded off as the reservoir fills during the transition from the wet to the dry season. Climate change, population growth, and development in the western US may exacerbate dry season water scarcity and increase winter flood risk, creating a need to critically evaluate the status quo for reservoir operations. Focusing on a system of thirteen reservoirs (the Willamette Project) in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, we estimated the values of reservoir management for reducing expected damages in the floodplain and for storing water for recreation in and around the reservoirs. We then used these values in a dynamic program to estimate the optimal fill path over the winter-spring transition period for both historical conditions and future scenarios of climate and social change. The value of stored water for summertime reservoir recreation was estimated based on the response of recreational use day counts to variation in water levels at nine of the reservoirs over the period 2001 to 2011. Visitor days were found to decline by as much as 2% per foot of drop in water level below full pool. The implied value of water to recreational users varied from $0.10 to$78 per acre-foot per month, depending on the reservoir. This range of values is comparable to prior estimates of the value of reservoir recreation in other parts of the western US, and is also similar to the value of water to irrigated agriculture in the Willamette River Basin, estimated in other studies. Because water cannot be used for recreation and irrigation at the same time, these results suggest that management of the Willamette reservoirs may benefit society by releasing stored water in summer for downstream needs from some reservoirs, while maintaining full pool for recreation in others, as prescribed currently. The expected value of flood damage reduction was estimated based on the probability of floods, flood inundation depth, and reservoir capacity, for three scenarios of future development in the Willamette River Basin, which were simulated by the Willamette Water 2100 land transition model over the period from present to 2100 using mid-range projections of future climate (MIROC5) and assumption about future population growth. Estimates of expected flood damage reduction varied as a function of flood risk over the course of the winter and spring, as well as the rate of population growth and associated development in the floodplain. At a weekly time scale the expected benefits of flood damage reduction ranged from a high in mid-January of $304 million to$1,284 million (depending on the rate of population growth), to near zero at the end of May. Finally, these analyses were combined in a dynamic programming approach to evaluate the optimal rate of fill for the Willamette Project reservoirs, at a weekly time step over the period from January to the end of May. This was done by treating the system of thirteen reservoirs as a single reservoir. The dynamic program found the fill path that minimized the sum of flood damages and foregone recreation benefits, subject to the constraint of available water inflows to the reservoir system. The estimate optimal fill path depended on the rate of decline of expected flood damages from mid-January to May. Anticipated future increases in winter flood risk and reduced spring streamflow, associated with climate change, shifted the optimal fill path to begin earlier and to fill more slowly, compared to the optimal fill path under historical conditions. The model confirms the intuitive result that the greater the value of stored water the earlier the optimal date to begin filling. Conversely, the greater the expected value of flood damage reduction the later the initiation of fill. Despite uncertainties in the estimated values of expected flood damage reduction and stored water for recreation, as well as the limitations of the dynamic program in modelling the coordinated management of multiple reservoirs, the approach and findings of this analysis contribute to our understanding of how reservoir management may need to adapt to future changes in water supply and demand

School Readiness: Parent-child Activities, Teachers' Perceptions, And Students' Skills

The purpose of this study was to explore relationships between parent report of parent-child activities, teachers' perceptions of students' skills and abilities, and teachers' report of skills, abilities, and experiences needed for developmental success. Participants in the study were 577 parents and 70 teachers of Pre-K and Kindergarten students. Significant differences in teacher report of social skills, fine motor skills, and caring for oneself were found by grade level. Significant differences in parent report were found for three school readiness activities: reading to their child, singing with their child, and building things with their child. Specifically, Pre-K parents reported engaging in these activities with their children more frequently than Kindergarten parents. Factor analysis of school readiness activities produced three factors. Logistic regression analyses indicated a positive relationship between Hands-on Activities and developmental maturity, as well as between Community-based activities and caring for oneself.Department of Human Development and Family Scienc

Trends in streamflow from old growth forested watersheds in the western Cascades

Increasing temperatures in western North America are expected to result in a decline in winter snowpacks, earlier snowmelt, and a shift in the timing of streamflows, with an increasing fraction of streamflows occurring earlier in the water year and drier conditions during the summer. However, few streamflow datasets have associated climate and vegetation records adequate to interpret changes in climate, forest processes, and their consequences for streamflows. This study examined long-term streamflow records from three headwater watersheds in old growth forest at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, to seek evidence of trends and investigate possible explanations for these changes. The three small (8.5-60 ha) watersheds (WS2, WS8, and WS9) range in elevation from 432-1182 m and have streamflow records dating back to 1953, 1964, and 1969 respectively. Spring and summer average minimum temperatures have increased over the study period, while April 1st SWE at Santiam Junction has declined significantly. Although precipitation has remained unchanged over the period of study, runoff ratios have declined in spring (March through May) at rates ranging from 25.4% (WS2) to 41.2% (WS8) over the 40- to 50-year periods of streamflow record. Total declines in spring runoff equate to 1.13, 2.13, and 1.23 mm day-1 at WS2, WS8, and WS9, respectively. However, neither winter nor summer runoff ratios have changed significantly, nor has there been a significant shift in the date of water year median flow over the period of record. Winter and spring runoff ratios are negatively related to vapor pressure deficit and/or temperature in the corresponding season, while summer runoff 2 ratios are positively related to vapor pressure deficit and/or temperature. Overall, the findings of this study most strongly support the hypothesis that warming temperatures have resulted in a reduction in spring snowpacks, with an earlier onset of evapotranspiration in the spring and a reduction in evapotranspiration during the summer, due to stomatal closure when VPD becomes sufficiently large or soil moisture becomes limited

Transplantation for Congenital Bone Marrow Failure Syndromes

Congenital bone marrow failure syndromes (BMFSs) are relatively rare disorders characterized by aberrant development in one or more hematopoietic lineages. Genetic alterations have now been identified in most of these disorders although the exact role of the molecular defects has yet to be elucidated. Most of these diseases are successfully managed with supportive care, however, treatment refractoriness and disease progression—often involving malignant transformation—may necessitate curative treatment with hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Due to the underlying molecular defects, the outcome of transplantation for BMFS may be dramatically different than those associated with transplantation for more common diseases, including leukemia. Given recent improvements in survival and molecular diagnosis of bone marrow failure syndrome patients presenting at adult ages without physical stigmata, it is important for both pediatric and adult hematologists to be aware of the possible diagnosis of BMF syndromes and the unique approaches required in treating such patients

Daytime turbulent exchange between the Amazon forest and the atmosphere

Detailed observations of turbulence just above and below the crown of the Amazon rain forest during the wet season are presented. The forest canopy is shown to remove high frequency turbulent fluctuations while passing lower frequencies. Filter characteristics of turbulent transfer into the Amazon rain forest canopy are quantified. Simple empirical relations that relate observed turbulent heat fluxes to horizontal wind variance are presented. Changes in the amount of turbulent coupling between the forest and the boundary layer associated with deep convective clouds are presented both as statistical averages and as a series of case studies. These convective processes during the rainy season are shown to alter the diurnal course of turbulent fluxes. In wake of giant coastal systems, no significant heat or moisture fluxes occur for up to a day after the event. Radar data is used to demonstrate that even small raining clouds are capable of evacuating the canopy of substances normally trapped by persistent static stability near the forest floor. Recovery from these events can take more than an hour, even during mid-day. In spite of the ubiquitous presence of clouds and frequent rain during this season, the average horizontal wind speed spectrum is well described by dry CBL similarity hypotheses originally found to apply in flat terrain

Myosin V exhibits a high duty cycle and large unitary displacement

Myosin V is a double-headed unconventional myosin that has been implicated in organelle transport. To perform this role, myosin V may have a high duty cycle. To test this hypothesis and understand the properties of this molecule at the molecular level, we used the laser trap and in vitro motility assay to characterize the mechanics of heavy meromyosin–like fragments of myosin V (M5HMM) expressed in the Baculovirus system. The relationship between actin filament velocity and the number of interacting M5HMM molecules indicates a duty cycle of ≥50%. This high duty cycle would allow actin filament translocation and thus organelle transport by a few M5HMM molecules. Single molecule displacement data showed predominantly single step events of 20 nm and an occasional second step to 37 nm. The 20-nm unitary step represents the myosin V working stroke and is independent of the mode of M5HMM attachment to the motility surface or light chain content. The large M5HMM working stroke is consistent with the myosin V neck acting as a mechanical lever. The second step is characterized by an increased displacement variance, suggesting a model for how the two heads of myosin V function in processive motion

Multi-year longitudinal profiles of cortisol and corticosterone recovered from baleen of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis)

© The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in General and Comparative Endocrinology 254 (2017): 50-59, doi:10.1016/j.ygcen.2017.09.009.Research into stress physiology of mysticete whales has been hampered by difficulty in obtaining repeated physiological samples from individuals over time. We investigated whether multi-year longitudinal records of glucocorticoids can be reconstructed from serial sampling along full-length baleen plates (representing ~10 years of baleen growth), using baleen recovered from two female North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) of known reproductive history. Cortisol and corticosterone were quantified with immunoassay of subsamples taken every 4 cm (representing ~60 d time intervals) along a full-length baleen plate from each female. In both whales, corticosterone was significantly elevated during known pregnancies (inferred from calf sightings and necropsy data) as compared to intercalving intervals; cortisol was significantly elevated during pregnancies in one female but not the other. Within intercalving intervals, corticosterone was significantly elevated during the first year (lactation year) and/or the second year (post-lactation year) as compared to later years of the intercalving interval, while cortisol showed more variable patterns. Cortisol occasionally showed brief high elevations (“spikes”) not paralleled by corticosterone, suggesting that the two glucocorticoids might be differentially responsive to certain stressors. Generally, immunoreactive corticosterone was present in higher concentration in baleen than immunoreactive cortisol; corticosterone:cortisol ratio was usually >4 and was highly variable in both individuals. Further investigation of baleen cortisol and corticosterone profiles could prove fruitful for elucidating long-term, multi-year patterns in stress physiology of large whales, determined retrospectively from stranded or archived specimens.This work was supported by the Eppley Foundation for Research, the NOAA Marine Mammal Health and Stranding Program, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Ocean Life Institute, and the New England Aquarium

Longitudinal progesterone profiles in baleen from female North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) match known calving history

© The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Conservation Physiology 4 (2016): cow014, doi:10.1093/conphys/cow014.Reproduction of mysticete whales is difficult to monitor, and basic parameters, such as pregnancy rate and inter-calving interval, remain unknown for many populations. We hypothesized that baleen plates (keratinous strips that grow downward from the palate of mysticete whales) might record previous pregnancies, in the form of high-progesterone regions in the sections of baleen that grew while the whale was pregnant. To test this hypothesis, longitudinal baleen progesterone profiles from two adult female North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) that died as a result of ship strike were compared with dates of known pregnancies inferred from calf sightings and post-mortem data. We sampled a full-length baleen plate from each female at 4 cm intervals from base (newest baleen) to tip (oldest baleen), each interval representing ∼60 days of baleen growth, with high-progesterone areas then sampled at 2 or 1 cm intervals. Pulverized baleen powder was assayed for progesterone using enzyme immunoassay. The date of growth of each sampling location on the baleen plate was estimated based on the distance from the base of the plate and baleen growth rates derived from annual cycles of stable isotope ratios. Baleen progesterone profiles from both whales showed dramatic elevations (two orders of magnitude higher than baseline) in areas corresponding to known pregnancies. Baleen hormone analysis shows great potential for estimation of recent reproductive history, inter-calving interval and general reproductive biology in this species and, possibly, in other mysticete whales.This work was supported by the Eppley Foundation for Research, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Marine Mammal Health and Stranding Program and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Ocean Life Institute