Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route

This paper examines diverse aspects of the monetary integration of the ten new Member States (NMS) which joined the EU on 1 May 2004 into the euro area. Most NMS have undergone a rapid and deep transformation in all areas with considerable progress in their processes of reform and convergence, and more is underway. While trade integration with the other 15 EU Member States (EU15) has progressed quickly, convergence in output specialisation to EU standards has been slow, especially if measured in real terms. This may influence negatively the pace of real convergence. Most NMS lag significantly behind in building up and deepening their financial systems. There is also evidence that exchange rate flexibility may still be serving as a useful shock absorber for some NMS, and so far the evidence indicates that real exchange rates have moved, broadly speaking, in line with long term fundamental equilibria. On the positive side, many NMS are quite advanced relative to the euro area in the process of labour market and institutional reform (their labour market structures are more flexible than those of the euro area countries). There is also some evidence that a few NMS have a significant degree of business-cycle synchronisation with the euro area: hence, they may become less likely to be affected by different economic shocks. This, however, is not true for all NMS. The monetary policy institutions of the NMS have also converged to some degree - goals and institutional settings of central banks are now much more similar than before. A case-by-case approach to adopting the euro, based on country-specific conditions, seems natural due to the differences between the countries.Optimum Currency Area, Economic and Monetary Integration, EMU.

Employment Impacts of EU Biofuels Policy: Combining Bottom-up Technology Information and Sectoral Market Simulations in an Input-output Framework

This paper analyses the employment consequences of policies aimed to support biofuels in the European Union. The promotion of biofuel use has been advocated as a means to promote the sustainable use of natural resources and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions originating from transport activities on the one hand, and to reduce dependence on imported oil and thereby increase security of the European energy supply on the other hand. The employment impacts of increasing biofuels shares are calculated by taking into account a set of elements comprising the demand for capital goods required to produce biofuels, the additional demand for agricultural feedstock, higher fuel prices or reduced household budget in the case of price subsidisation, price effects ensuing from a hypothetical world oil price reduction linked to substitution in the EU market, and price impacts on agro-food commodities. The calculations refer to scenarios for the year 2020 targets as set out by the recent Renewable Energy Roadmap. Employment effects are assessed in an input-output framework taking into account bottom-up technology information to specify biofuels activities and linked to partial equilibrium models for the agricultural and energy sectors. The simulations suggest that biofuels targets on the order of 10-15% could be achieved without adverse net employment effects. -- In diesem Papier werden die Beschäftigungswirkungen der Förderung von Biokraftstoffen in der Europäischen Union untersucht. Die Förderung von Biokraftstoffen wird mit der nachhaltigen Nutzung natürlicher Ressourcen, der Reduktion von Treibhausgasemissionen im Transportsektor und der Verminderung der Erdölabhängigkeit und damit einhergehender erhöhter Energiesicherheit in Europa begründet. Bei der Quantifizierung der Beschäftigungseffekte der Biokraftstoffförderung in Europa wurden verschiedene Effekte berücksichtigt: gesteigerte Nachfrage nach Agrarerzeugnissen und Kapitalgütern zu Herstellung von Biokraftstoffen, höhere Kraftstoffpreise, Preisrückgänge auf dem Rohölmarkt infolge der Substitutionseffekte des Biokraftstoffeinsatzes und Preissteigerungen bei Agrarprodukten und Lebensmitteln. Dazu wird ein Input-Output Modell um die Biokraftstofferzeugung erweitert und mit Partialmodellen des Agrar- und Energiesektors gekoppelt. Als besonders wichtige Faktoren für potentielle Beschäftigungseffekte haben sich die Entwicklung einer auf den Weltmärkten führenden EU Biokraftstoffindustrie und der abschwächende Effekte der Biokraftstoffe auf den Ölpreis erwiesen. Die Simulationen legen nahe, dass sich die verschiedenen positiven und negativen Effekte weitgehend kompensieren und ein Biokraftstoffanteil von 10 ? 15 Prozent ohne signifikant negative Beschäftigungseffekte erzielt werden kann.Biofuels,Input-output,Employment

Economic consequences of zero international migration in the EU: An assessment for Europe based on the Eurostat population projections

Without international migration the EU28 population by 2060 would be reduced by 76 million people, with a higher median age. This study explores how much EU28 and members states long-term economic growth would be affected in case there would not be international migration to the EU28 countries from now to the year 2060.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route

This paper examines diverse aspects of the monetary integration of the ten new Member States (NMS) which joined the EU on 1 May 2004 into the euro area. Most NMS have undergone a rapid and deep transformation in all areas with considerable progress in their processes of reform and convergence, and more is underway. While trade integration with the other 15 EU Member States (EU15) has progressed quickly, convergence in output specialisation to EU standards has been slow, especially if measured in real terms. This may influence negatively the pace of real convergence. Most NMS lag significantly behind in building up and deepening their financial systems. There is also evidence that exchange rate flexibility may still be serving as a useful shock absorber for some NMS, and so far the evidence indicates that real exchange rates have moved, broadly speaking, in line with long term fundamental equilibria. On the positive side, many NMS are quite advanced relative to the euro area in the process of labour market and institutional reform (their labour market structures are more flexible than those of the euro area countries). There is also some evidence that a few NMS have a significant degree of business-cycle synchronisation with the euro area: hence, they may become less likely to be affected by different economic shocks. This, however, is not true for all NMS. The monetary policy institutions of the NMS have also converged to some degree - goals and institutional settings of central banks are now much more similar than before. A case-by-case approach to adopting the euro, based on country-specific conditions, seems natural due to the differences between the countries

Employment impacts of EU biofuels policy : Combining bottom-up technology information and sectoral market simulations in an input-output framework

This paper analyses the employment consequences of policies aimed to support biofuels in the European Union. The promotion of biofuel use has been advocated as a means to promote the sustainable use of natural resources and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions originating from transport activities on the one hand, and to reduce dependence on imported oil and thereby increase security of the European energy supply on the other hand. The employment impacts of increasing biofuels shares are calculated by taking into account a set of elements comprising the demand for capital goods required to produce biofuels, the additional demand for agricultural feedstock, higher fuel prices or reduced household budget in the case of price subsidisation, price effects ensuing from a hypothetical world oil price reduction linked to substitution in the EU market, and price impacts on agro-food commodities. The calculations refer to scenarios for the year 2020 targets as set out by the recent Renewable Energy Roadmap. Employment effects are assessed in an input-output framework taking into account bottom-up technology information to specify biofuels activities and linked to partial equilibrium models for the agricultural and energy sectors. The simulations suggest that biofuels targets on the order of 10-15% could be achieved without adverse net employment effects

Adapting to rising coastal flood risk in the EU under climate change

Around one third of the EU population lives within 50 km of the coast. Extreme sea levels in Europe could rise by as much as one meter or more by the end of this century. Without mitigation and adaptation measures, annual damages from coastal flooding in the EU-28 could increase sharply from €1.4 billion nowadays to almost €240 billion by 2100. Around 95% of these impacts could be avoided through moderate mitigation and by raising dykes where human settlements and economically important areas exist along the coastline. The extent to which adaptation can lessen the effects of coastal flooding and at what cost is sensitive to the investment strategy adopted.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

JRC PESETA III Project: Economic integration and spillover analysis

This report details the economic integration of the biophysical impact results of the JRC PESETA III project. Six impact areas have been fully integrated: labour productivity, river floods, coastal floods, energy, agriculture and human mortality due to heatwaves. A second objective of the economic task has been to explore the degree to which climate impacts cross geographical borders, the so-called spillover analysis. The global transboundary analysis has been made for the four sectors for which global impact estimates are available: labour productivity, river floods, energy, and agriculture. This document presents the methodology and main results of the economic assessment.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

“Ingresso nei ricordi”. Una ricerca sulla suggestionabilità dei bambini

Sexual abuse is a crime which rarely has witnesses and, therefore, proving such offences is largely ba ed on the testimony of the victims involved when no physical evidenceis available to unequivocally document it. As a result, the testimony of the victim in such cases is the only basis on which a judge should make his decisions. Studies carried out on the testimony of children have shown the difficulties which arise when the minor is both victim and witness. Research studies conducted on child abuse recall, once again, the need for reflection on the manner in which the hearing of children’s accounts should be carried out in light of their suggestibility. Questions which are suggestive in nature act to affirm more than what they ask and may lead the witness to confirm the elements of the question put forth. If the witness is a child, it is possible for an adult to insert information into the youngster’s memory, thus incorporating it into his recollection of events, or substituting the original memory with it.The aim of this study is to verify the memory capacity in school age children (ages 6 to 9 years) through involvement in play activities carried out in a classroom setting, followed by individual interviews focusing on their views of what had transpired. Several factors which are able to influence the ability to remember were analyzed: age; role performed during the play activity; whether the participants played an active role, or merely observed; and the influence of troubling factors, such as confusion or stress.The results show the complex interactions among the multiple factors investigated in this study. They highlight the importance of examining all elements which may potentially come into play when interviewing a child and to understanding his or her suitability to give testimony. The data which have emerged from our analysis confirm the assumption that children may be reliable witnesses only if they are heard utilizing correct methodology based on the use of questions which are non-suggestive, and as non-leading as possible, so as to allow the child to recount the events in a manner as free and spontaneous as possible.L’abuso sessuale è un reato che difficilmente ha spettatori e che, di conseguenza, si fonda, quando non vi siano segni fisici a documentarlo inequivocabilmente, in larga parte sulle dichiarazioni rese dalle vittime. La loro testimonianza costituisce quindi, nella maggioranza dei casi, l’unico elemento su cui il magistrato deve basare il suo giudizio. Studi svolti nell’ambito della testimonianza dei bambini hanno evidenziato le difficoltà che si devono affrontare quando il minore è allo stesso tempo vittima e testimone. Gli studi e le ricerche sul child abuse, richiamano la necessità di una riflessione sulle modalità con le quali deve essere svolto l’ascolto dei resoconti dei bambini in ragione della loro suggestionabilità. Le domande suggestive affermano di più di quanto non chiedono e possono condurre il testimone a confermare gli elementi presenti nella domanda. Se il testimone è un bambino, è possibile che egli inserisca in memoria le informazioni provenienti dall’adulto, le incorpori o che le sostituisca al suo ricordo originario. Obiettivo della ricerca è verificare la capacità di ricordare un evento in bambini in età scolare (6 e 9 anni), attraverso il coinvolgimento in un’attività ludica e con una successiva intervista individuale focalizzata su ciò che era accaduto in classe. Sono stati analizzati alcuni fattori in grado di influenzare la capacità di ricordare: l’età; il ruolo svolto nell’evento, l’essere partecipanti con un compito attivo o semplici osservatori; l’influenza di fattori di disturbo, confusione o stress. I risultati mostrano la complessa interazione tra i molteplici fattori indagati, sottolineando quanto importante sia nell’analisi della capacità di rendere testimonianza dei bambini, lo studio di tutti gli elementi che entrano potenzialmente in gioco nell’atto dell’intervista. I dati emersi dalla nostra ricerca confermano l’assunto che i bambini possono essere testimoni attendibili se ascoltati utilizzando corrette metodologie basate sull’uso di domande non suggestive, il meno possibile direttive, che permettano al bambino di raccontare l’evento nella modalità più libera e spontanea possibile

FIDELIO 1: Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model for the EU27

In this report we present complete information about the Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model for the EU27 (FIDELIO 1). First, the macro overview of the model is discussed, which presents the main mechanisms of interactions between various blocks of FIDELIO. The second chapter explains the main economic theories underlying FIDELIO consumption, production and labour market blocks. Here, further econometric approaches for estimation of the parameters of all behavioural equations and their results are presented. Then, derivation of all the necessary base-year data (e.g., various commodity use structure and price structure matrices, trade matrix, base-year residuals, etc.) are discussed in detail. All FIDELIO equations are presented (with discussions) in Chapter 4. Finally, a full description of the data sources is given in the last chapter. It will become clear from this description document that FIDELIO is appropriate for the impact assessment purposes of diverse (economic and/or environmental) policy questions of our times.JRC.J.5-Sustainable Production and Consumptio