Two Mechanisms to Avoid Control Conflicts Resulting from Uncoordinated Intent

This software implements a real-time access control protocol that is intended to make all connected users aware of the presence of other connected users, and which of them is currently in control of the system. Here, "in control" means that a single user is authorized and enabled to issue instructions to the system. The software The software also implements a goal scheduling mechanism that can detect situations where plans for the operation of a target system proposed by different users overlap and interact in conflicting ways. In such situations, the system can either simply report the conflict (rejecting one goal or the entire plan), or reschedule the goals in a way that does not conflict. The access control mechanism (and associated control protocol) is unique. Other access control mechanisms are generally intended to authenticate users, or exclude unauthorized access. This software does neither, and would likely depend on having some other mechanism to support those requirements

Central Bank Transparency under Model Uncertainty

This paper explores the effects of central bank transparency on the performance of optimal inflation targeting rules. I assume that both the central bank and the private sector face uncertainty about the correct model of the economy and have to learn. A transparent central bank can reduce one source of uncertainty for private agents by communicating its policy rule to the public. The paper shows that central bank transparency plays a crucial role in stabilizing the agents' learning process and expectations. By contrast, lack of transparency can lead to expectations-driven fluctuations that have destabilizing effects on the economy, even when the central bank has adopted optimal policie

Issues of geologically-focused situational awareness in robotic planetary missions: lessons from an analogue mission at Mistastin Lake impact structure, Labrador, Canada

Remote robotic data provides different information than that obtained from immersion in the field. This significantly affects the geological situational awareness experienced by members of a mission control science team. In order to optimize science return from planetary robotic missions, these limitations must be understood and their effects mitigated to fully leverage the field experience of scientists at mission control. Results from a 13-day analogue deployment at the Mistastin Lake impact structure in Labrador, Canada suggest that scale, relief, geological detail, and time are intertwined issues that impact the mission control science team‟s effectiveness in interpreting the geology of an area. These issues are evaluated and several mitigation options are suggested. Scale was found to be difficult to interpret without the reference of known objects, even when numerical scale data were available. For this reason, embedding intuitive scale-indicating features into image data is recommended. Since relief is not conveyed in 2D images, both 3D data and observations from multiple angles are required. Furthermore, the 3D data must be observed in animation or as anaglyphs, since without such assistance much of the relief information in 3D data is not communicated. Geological detail may also be missed due to the time required to collect, analyze, and request data. We also suggest that these issues can be addressed, in part, by an improved understanding of the operational time costs and benefits of scientific data collection. Robotic activities operate on inherently slow time-scales. This fact needs to be embraced and accommodated. Instead of focusing too quickly on the details of a target of interest, thereby potentially minimizing science return, time should be allocated at first to more broad data collection at that target, including preliminary surveys, multiple observations from various vantage points, and progressively smaller scale of focus. This operational model more closely follows techniques employed by field geologists and is fundamental to the geologic interpretation of an area. Even so, an operational time cost/benefit analyses should be carefully considered in each situation, to determine when such comprehensive data collection would maximize the science return. Finally, it should be recognized that analogue deployments cannot faithfully model the time scales of robotic planetary missions. Analogue missions are limited by the difficulty and expense of fieldwork. Thus, analogue deployments should focus on smaller aspects of robotic missions and test components in a modular way (e.g., dropping communications constraints, limiting mission scope, focusing on a specific problem, spreading the mission over several field seasons, etc.)

Exogenous spatial precuing reliably modulates object processing but not object substitution masking

Object substitution masking (OSM) is used in behavioral and imaging studies to investigate processes associated with the formation of a conscious percept. Reportedly, OSM occurs only when visual attention is diffusely spread over a search display or focused away from the target location. Indeed, the presumed role of spatial attention is central to theoretical accounts of OSM and of visual processing more generally (Di Lollo, Enns, & Rensink, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 129:481–507, 2000). We report a series of five experiments in which valid spatial precuing is shown to enhance the ability of participants to accurately report a target but, in most cases, without affecting OSM. In only one experiment (Experiment 5) was a significant effect of precuing observed on masking. This is in contrast to the reliable effect shown across all five experiments in which precuing improved overall performance. The results are convergent with recent findings from Argyropoulos, Gellatly, and Pilling (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 39:646–661, 2013), which show that OSM is independent of the number of distractor items in a display. Our results demonstrate that OSM can operate independently of focal attention. Previous claims of the strong interrelationship between OSM and spatial attention are likely to have arisen from ceiling or floor artifacts that restricted measurable performance

Global Liquidity and House Prices: A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries

Global monetary dynamics has been particularly strong in recent years. At the same time, house prices in many OECD countries increased sharply, significantly outpacing the relatively subdued development in consumer prices. In this paper we argue that different price elasticities on asset and consumer markets help to explain the observed relative price change between assets and consumer goods. Using a VAR analysis and aggregated data for the major OECD countries, our empirical results are supportive of this relationship. Both house and consumer prices are determined by global monetary conditions; however, while global liquidity shocks lead to relatively fast responses in global house prices, significant responses of the global CPI index to money shocks occur only after long time lags. In addition, we find subsequent spillovers from asset prices to consumer prices on a global scale

The macroeconomics of a financial Dutch disease

We describe the medium-run macroeconomic effects and long-run development consequences of a financial Dutch disease that may take place in a small developing country with abundant natural resources. The first move is in financial markets. An initial surge in foreign direct investment targeting natural resources sets in motion a perverse cycle between exchange rate appreciation and mounting short- and medium-term capital flows. Such a spiral easily leads to exchange rate volatility, capital reversals, and sharp macroeconomic instability. In the long run, macroeconomic instability and overdependence on natural resource exports dampen the development of nontraditional tradable goods sectors and curtail labor productivity dynamics. We advise the introduction of constraints to short- and medium-term capital flows to tame exchange rate/capital flows boom-and-bust cycles. We support the implementation of a developmentalist monetary policy targeting competitive nominal and real exchange rates in order to encourage product and export diversification

The Real-Time Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts

This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble emergences and collapses. Building on simulations, the paper shows that the detection capabilities of all indicators are sensitive to their exact specifications and to the characteristics of the bubbles in the sample. Therefore, the paper suggests a combination approach of different bubble indicators which helps to account for the uncertainty around start and end dates of asset price bubbles. Additionally, the paper then investigates if the individual and combination indicators carry predictive content for inflation and output growth when the real-time availability of all variables is taken into account. It finds that a combination indicator is best suited to uncover the most common stock and house price bubbles in the U.S. and shows that this indicator improves output forecasts