Financial intermediaries, leverage ratios, and business cycles

I document cyclical properties of aggregate measures of liabilities, equity, and leverage ratio in the U.S. financial sector and those of credit spread. I find that (i) liabilities and equity are procyclical, leverage ratio is acyclical, and credit spread is countercyclical, (ii) financial variables are three to ten times more volatile than output, and (iii) financial variables lead the business cycle. I present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with profit maximizing banks where bank equity mitigates a moral hazard problem between banks and their depositors. The driving sources of business cycles are shocks to bank equity as well as standard productivity shocks. The model generates real and financial fluctuations consistent with the U.S. data. The model also delivers some policy prescriptions about capital adequacy requirements of banks.Banks; Financial Fluctuations; Credit Frictions; Bank Equity; Real Fluctuations

Essays on Financial Intermediaries, Business Cycles and Macroprudential Policies

This study conducts a quantitative analysis of the role of financial shocks and credit frictions affecting the banking sector in driving business cycles as well as the role of reserve requirements as a macroprudential policy tool. In the first chapter, I first empirically document three stylized business cycle facts of aggregate financial variables in the U.S. commercial banking sector for the period 1987-2010: (i) Bank credit, deposits and loan spread are less volatile than output, while net worth and leverage ratio are more volatile, (ii) bank credit and net worth are procyclical, while deposits, leverage ratio and loan spread are countercyclical, and (iii) financial variables lead the output fluctuations by one to three quarters. I then present an equilibrium business cycle model with a financial sector, featuring a moral hazard problem between banks and its depositors, which leads to endogenous capital constraints for banks in obtaining funds from households. Credit frictions in banking sector are modeled as in Gertler and Karadi (2011). The model incorporates empirically-disciplined shocks to bank net worth (i.e. "financial shocks") that alter the ability of banks to borrow and to extend credit to non-financial businesses. The model is calibrated to U.S. data from 1987 to 2010. I show that the benchmark model driven by both standard productivity and financial shocks is able to deliver most of the stylized facts about real and financial variables simultaneously. Financial shocks and credit frictions in banking sector are important not only for explaining the dynamics of aggregate financial variables but also for the dynamics of standard macroeconomic variables. Financial shocks play a major role in driving real fluctuations due to their strong impact on the tightness of bank capital constraint and credit spread, which eventually affect the saving-investment nexus of the economy. Finally, the tightness of bank capital constraint given by the Lagrange multiplier in the theoretical model (which determines the banks' ability to extend credit to non-financial firms) tracks the index of tightening credit standards (which shows the adverse changes in banks' lending) constructed by the Federal Reserve Board quite well. The second chapter (coauthored with Enes Sunel and Temel Taskin) undertakes a quantitative investigation of the role of reserve requirements as a credit policy tool. We build a monetary DSGE model with a banking sector in which (i) an agency problem between households and banks leads to endogenous capital constraints for banks in obtaining funds from households, (ii) banks are subject to time-varying reserve requirements that countercyclically respond to expected credit growth, (iii) households face cash-in-advance constraints, requiring them to hold real balances, and (iv) standard productivity and money growth shocks are two sources of aggregate uncertainty. We calibrate the model to the Turkish economy which is representative of using reserve requirements as a macroprudential policy tool recently. We also consider the impact of financial shocks that affect the net worth of financial intermediaries. We find that (i) the time-varying required reserve ratio rule mitigates the negative effects of the financial accelerator mechanism triggered by adverse macroeconomic and financial shocks, (ii) in response to TFP and money growth shocks, countercyclical reserves policy reduces the volatilities of key real macroeconomic and financial variables compared to fixed reserves policy over the business cycle, and (iii) an operational time-varying reserve requirement policy is welfare superior to a fixed reserve requirement policy. The credit policy is most effective when the economy is hit by a financial shock. Time-varying required reserves policy reduces the intertemporal distortions created by the credit spreads at expense of generating higher inflation volatility, indicating an interesting trade-off between price stability and financial stability

Financial intermediaries, credit Shocks and business cycles

This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the role of financial shocks and credit frictions affecting the banking sector in driving U.S. business cycles. I first document three key business cycle stylized facts of aggregate financial variables in the U.S. banking sector: (i) Bank credit, deposits and loan spread are less volatile than output, while net worth and leverage ratio are more volatile, (ii) bank credit and net worth are procyclical, while deposits, leverage ratio and loan spread are countercyclical, and (iii) financial variables lead the output fluctuations by one to three quarters. I then present an equilibrium business cycle model with a financial sector, featuring a moral hazard problem between banks and its depositors, which leads to endogenous capital constraints for banks in obtaining funds from households. The model incorporates empirically-disciplined shocks to bank net worth (i.e. "financial shocks") that alter the ability of banks to borrow and to extend credit to non-financial businesses. I show that the benchmark model is able to deliver most of the above stylized facts. Financial shocks and credit frictions in banking sector are important not only for explaining the dynamics of financial variables but also for the dynamics of standard macroeconomic variables. Financial shocks play a major role in driving real fluctuations due to their impact on the tightness of bank capital constraint and the credit spread

Financial intermediaries, leverage ratios, and business cycles

I document cyclical properties of aggregate measures of liabilities, equity, and leverage ratio in the U.S. financial sector and those of credit spread. I find that (i) liabilities and equity are procyclical, leverage ratio is acyclical, and credit spread is countercyclical, (ii) financial variables are three to ten times more volatile than output, and (iii) financial variables lead the business cycle. I present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with profit maximizing banks where bank equity mitigates a moral hazard problem between banks and their depositors. The driving sources of business cycles are shocks to bank equity as well as standard productivity shocks. The model generates real and financial fluctuations consistent with the U.S. data. The model also delivers some policy prescriptions about capital adequacy requirements of banks

Financial intermediaries, credit Shocks and business cycles

This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the role of financial shocks and credit frictions affecting the banking sector in driving U.S. business cycles. I first document three key business cycle stylized facts of aggregate financial variables in the U.S. banking sector: (i) Bank credit, deposits and loan spread are less volatile than output, while net worth and leverage ratio are more volatile, (ii) bank credit and net worth are procyclical, while deposits, leverage ratio and loan spread are countercyclical, and (iii) financial variables lead the output fluctuations by one to three quarters. I then present an equilibrium business cycle model with a financial sector, featuring a moral hazard problem between banks and its depositors, which leads to endogenous capital constraints for banks in obtaining funds from households. The model incorporates empirically-disciplined shocks to bank net worth (i.e. "financial shocks") that alter the ability of banks to borrow and to extend credit to non-financial businesses. I show that the benchmark model is able to deliver most of the above stylized facts. Financial shocks and credit frictions in banking sector are important not only for explaining the dynamics of financial variables but also for the dynamics of standard macroeconomic variables. Financial shocks play a major role in driving real fluctuations due to their impact on the tightness of bank capital constraint and the credit spread

Required reserves as a credit policy tool

This paper conducts a quantitative investigation of the role of reserve requirements as a macroprudential policy tool. We build a monetary DSGE model with a banking sector in which (i) an agency problem between households and banks leads to endogenous capital constraints for banks in obtaining funds from households, (ii) banks are subject to time-varying reserve requirements that countercyclically respond to expected credit growth, (iii) households face cash-in-advance constraints, requiring them to hold real balances, and (iv) standard productivity and money growth shocks are two sources of aggregate uncertainty. We calibrate the model to the Turkish economy which is representative of using reserve requirements as a macroprudential policy tool recently. We also consider the impact of financial shocks that affect the net worth of financial intermediaries. We find that (i) the time-varying required reserve ratio rule countervails the negative effects of the financial accelerator mechanism triggered by adverse macroeconomic and financial shocks, (ii) in response to TFP and money growth shocks, countercyclical reserves policy reduces the volatilities of key real macroeconomic and financial variables compared to fixed reserves policy over the business cycle, and (iii) a time-varying reserve requirement policy is welfare superior to a fixed reserve requirement policy. The credit policy is most effective when the economy is hit by a financial shock. Time-varying required reserves policy reduces the intertemporal distortions created by the credit spreads at expense of generating higher inflation volatility, indicating an interesting trade-off between price stability and financial stability

Required reserves as a credit policy tool

This paper conducts a quantitative investigation of the role of reserve requirements as a macroprudential policy tool. We build a monetary DSGE model with a banking sector in which (i) an agency problem between households and banks leads to endogenous capital constraints for banks in obtaining funds from households, (ii) banks are subject to time-varying reserve requirements that countercyclically respond to expected credit growth, (iii) households face cash-in-advance constraints, requiring them to hold real balances, and (iv) standard productivity and money growth shocks are two sources of aggregate uncertainty. We calibrate the model to the Turkish economy which is representative of using reserve requirements as a macroprudential policy tool recently. We also consider the impact of financial shocks that affect the net worth of financial intermediaries. We find that (i) the time-varying required reserve ratio rule countervails the negative effects of the financial accelerator mechanism triggered by adverse macroeconomic and financial shocks, (ii) in response to TFP and money growth shocks, countercyclical reserves policy reduces the volatilities of key real macroeconomic and financial variables compared to fixed reserves policy over the business cycle, and (iii) a time-varying reserve requirement policy is welfare superior to a fixed reserve requirement policy. The credit policy is most effective when the economy is hit by a financial shock. Time-varying required reserves policy reduces the intertemporal distortions created by the credit spreads at expense of generating higher inflation volatility, indicating an interesting trade-off between price stability and financial stability

Para politikası araçları ve makro ihtiyati tedbirlerin kredi büyümesi üzerine etkileri: banka büyüklüğü ve kredi türünün önemi

Bu çalışmada, Türk bankacılık sektörü bilanço verisi kullanılarak, 2002Ç4-2015Ç1 döneminde uygulanan para politikası araçları ve makro ihtiyati politikaların kredi büyümesi üzerindeki etkileri panel veri tahmin yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Söz konusu etkiler, önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, banka büyüklüğü ve kredi türü ayrımında ele alınmaktadır. Çalışmanın bu ayrım gözetilerek yapılmasının nedeni, uygulanan para politikası araçları ve makro ihtiyati tedbirlerin, büyük ve küçük bankaların aktif ve pasif kompozisyonunda görülen farklılıklar nedeniyle, kredi türüne de bağlı olarak, kredi büyüme oranları üzerinde asimetrik bir etki yaratma olasılığıdır. Tahmin sonuçları, politika faizindeki 1 yüzde puan artışla ifade edilebilecek daha sıkı bir para politikası duruşunun, büyük bankaların toplam kredi büyümesini 0,46-0,49 yüzde puan, bireysel kredi büyümesini ise 0,88-0,94 yüzde puan azalttığını göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, bulgular, daha sıkı bir makro ihtiyati politika duruşunun, küçük bankaların toplam, bireysel ve ticari kredi büyüme oranlarını yavaşlattığına, büyük bankaların ise sadece bireysel kredi büyüme oranlarında düşüşe neden olduğuna işaret etmektedir.This study analyzes the effects of monetary policy tools and macro prudential measures on credit growth during 2002Q4-2015Q period by using Turkish banking sector balance sheet data and panel data estimation methods. Unlike earlier studies, these effects are examined with an asset size and credit type breakdown. This breakdown is necessary as the differences observed between big and small banks with respect to their asset and liability composition can cause monetary and macro prudential policies to have asymmetric effects on credit growth rates, depending on the credit type. The estimation results show that a tighter monetary policy manifested by 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces total credit growth rate of big banks by 0.46-0.49 percentage points while the consumer credit growth of big banks declines by 0.88-0.94 percentage points. On the other hand, a tighter macro prudential policy slows down credit growth of small banks for all credit types, whereas for big banks, the deceleration is observed only in consumer credits

Asset purchases as a remedy for the original sin redux

We provide a theory on how a wider foreign lending base of local-currency sovereign debt may lead to destabilising effects (the original sin redux). Bond sell-offs by foreigners induce domestic banks to fund the government, reducing the credit for investment and tightening financial conditions. Currency mismatches exacerbate the ensuing deterioration in financial sector balance sheets, which amplifies the repercussions of the initial shock by prompting private sector capital outflows and larger currency depreciations. We then explore the role of central bank government bond and firm security purchases in countervailing the ramifications of bond sell-offs. Our estimated model reflects the regularities of the representative emerging-market economy that deployed quantitative easing policies during the pandemic. It further offers an explanation to the puzzle of stable exchange-rate dynamics accompanied by a reduction in excess sovereign bond yields and larger room for conventional monetary policy easing. We conclude asset purchases should be large in size to have a persistent effect on financial conditions and are less effective when they de-anchor inflation expectations or pose risks to a consolidated government balance sheet.publishedVersio

Distributional effects of monetary policy in Norway

We quantify the short-term effects of both non-systematic and systematic monetary policy on the income and wealth distribution in Norway, and measure the relative importance of the various channels. An expansionary monetary policy shock is found to disproportionally benefit the young as well as households with middle to lower income and wealth, and it reduces inequality in disposable income and wealth. The key channel for disposable income is the savings redistribution channel, whereby households with high debt-to-income ratios gain relatively more from a lower interest rate. Because of the high home ownership rate in Norway, most households gain from higher house prices, but the middle and lower part of the distribution gain relatively more as they are more indebted. We also find that systematic monetary policy, aimed at stabilizing cyclical fluctuations in output and inflation, also tends to stabilize income and wealth inequality.publishedVersio