245 research outputs found

    Oregon Winegrape Acreage Survey

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    This statewide survey report on winegrape acreage in Oregon covers bearing and nonbearing acres, size of vineyard operation, variety and county, size distribution, prices, and yields

    1986 Oregon Vineyard Survey

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    Special Report 804 is a statewide survey report on vineyards in Oregon; it covers bearing and nonbearing acres, size of vineyard operation, variety and county, size distribution, prices, and yields. The report also contains some comparisons of data from 1984 and 1986 and future plans for expansion

    The Housing Wealth Effect: The Crucial Roles of Demographics, Wealth Distribution and Wealth Shares

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    Current estimates of housing wealth effects vary widely. We consider the role of omitted variables suggested by economic theory that have been absent in a number of prior studies. Our estimates take into account age composition and wealth distribution (using poverty rates as a proxy), as well as wealth shares (how much of total wealth is comprised of housing vs. stock wealth). We exploit cross-state variation in housing, stock wealth and other variables in a newly assembled panel data set and find that the impact of housing on consumer spending depends crucially on age composition, poverty rates, and the housing wealth share. In particular, young people who are more likely to be credit-constrained, and older homeowners, likely to be “trading down” on their housing stock, experience the largest housing wealth effects, as suggested by theory. Also, as suggested by theory, housing wealth effects are higher in state-years with higher housing wealth shares, and in state-years with higher poverty rates (likely reflecting the greater importance of credit constraints for those observations). Taking these various factors into account implies huge variation over time and across states in the size of housing wealth effects.

    Oregon 1984 Vineyard Survey

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    This statewide survey report on vineyards in Oregon covers bearing and nonbearing acres, size of vineyard operation, variety and county, size distribution, prices, and yields. The report also contains some comparisons of data for 1982 and 1984

    Vineyard Acreage in Oregon, 1982

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    This statewide survey report on vineyard acreage in Oregon covers bearing and nonbearing acres, size of vineyard operation, variety and county, size distribution, prices, and yields. The report also contains some comparisons of data for 1981 and 1982

    The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect

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    Models used to guide policy, as well as some empirical studies, suggest that the effect of housing wealth on consumption is large and greater than the wealth effect on consumption from stock holdings. Recent theoretical work, in contrast, argues that changes in housing wealth are offset by changes in housing consumption, meaning that unexpected shocks in housing wealth should have little effect on non-housing consumption. We reexamine the impact of housing wealth on non-housing consumption, employing the Case-Quigley-Shiller data on U.S. housing wealth that have been used in prior studies to estimate a large housing wealth effect. Existing empirical work fails to control for the fact that changes in housing wealth may be correlated with changes in expected permanent income, biasing the resulting estimates. Once we control for the endogeneity bias resulting from the correlation between housing wealth and permanent income, we find that housing wealth has a small and insignificant effect on consumption. Additional analysis of time-series results provides further support for that view.

    The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil

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    Despite housing's importance to the economy and worries about recent financial and economic turmoil traceable to housing market difficulties, little has been written on how distress in the housing market, measured by foreclosures, affects home prices, or how these variables interact with other macroeconomic or housing variables such as employment, housing permits or sales. Employing a panel VAR model to examine quarterly state-level data, our paper is the first to systematically analyze these interactions. There is substantial regional variation across states, which facilitates our ability to identify linkages among variables. Importantly, price-foreclosure linkages work in both directions; foreclosures have a significant, negative effect on home prices, while an increase in prices alleviates distress by lowering foreclosures. Similarly, employment and foreclosures have mutually negative effects on each other. The impact of foreclosures on prices, while negative and significant, is quite small in magnitude. We demonstrate this by simulating house price changes in response to extreme foreclosure shocks. Even under extremely pessimistic scenarios for foreclosure shocks, average U.S. house prices, as measured by the comprehensive OFHEO house price index (which we argue is the most reliable and useful measure of house prices to use for our purposes), likely would decline only slightly or remain essentially flat in response to foreclosures like those predicted for the 2008-2009 period. This suggests that home prices are quite sticky, and that fears of a major fall in house prices, with all of its attendant negative macroeconomic consequences, typically are not warranted even in extreme foreclosure circumstances.
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