UMA ESTIMATIVA DA DEMANDA INDUSTRIAL DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA NO BRASIL: 1974-2002

This work aims to quantify the relations between the electricity demand and its main determinants in the Industrial sector of Brazil, in the period between 1974 and 2002. After identifying that the studied series were nonstationary, the use of the Cointegration Approach and an Error-Correction Mechanism was opted . The results obtained have turned out as according to the expected. The industrial electricity demand is price inelastic in both short and long run. The results still pointed out that such demand is inelastic to income in the short run, but elastic in the long run. The parameter estimated for a substitute factor to the energy was not significant, indicating that there is no close substitute for electricity in the Industrial sector. This fact evidenced the necessity of a program of reorganization and expansion for the Brazilian Electrical system as condition for the maintenance and the growth of the industrial activity in the country.electricity demand, Cointegration, Error Correction Mechanism., Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Demanda residencial de energia elétrica em Minas Gerais: 1970-2002

The objective of this study was to obtain an estimate for residential electricity demand in Minas Gerais in the period from 1970 to 2002. Specifically, the goal was to estimate price and income elasticities. After determining that the series under study were non-stationary, we chose to use the Co-integration approach, estimating a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC Model). The results obtained show that the demand studied is more sensible to variations in the income than to the price of the electricity, although both elasticities are inferior to the unit. It was also concluded that price-elasticity is higher in Minas Gerais than it is for Brazil as a whole, suggesting differentiated usage of this energy among the different states in the Country

Análise da estrutura do mercado brasileiro de carros populares, 1990-2005

The objective of this paper was to analyze the evolution of the Structure of the Brazilian market of popular cars in the period from 1990 to 2005. Information on the number of units sold by each firm in the domestic market have been used to determine each firm’s market-share, levels of concentration and the Herfindahl- Hirschman Index. The results have pointed that, although reduction in the concentration of this market during the period have occurred, the market is still strongly concentrated according to the levels established by the Office of Economic Investigation (SEAE) and by the Office of Economic Defense (SDE) for the exercise of the coordinated market power.Industrial organization, Market structure Popular cars, Industrial Organization,

Análise de operações de cross hedge para o mercado de açúcar cristal no Brasil

The aim of this study is to evaluate whether cross hedging with futures contracts of Brazilian hydrous and anhydrous ethanol American would be an effective tool against unwanted movements in the prices of sugar, given the absence of a future contract for producers of crystal sugar in the period 2010-2012. Four weekly series were built for the estimation of the optimum ratio and effectiveness of cross hedge. Through the variances and covariances obtained with the estimation of VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model matrix, we obtained the optimum ratio and the effectiveness of the operation of cross hedge. The optimal ratio between the cross hedge future of Brazilian hydrated ethanol and sugar was approximately 2%, but the operation was not effective. As for the cross hedge between American anhydrous ethanol and Brazilian sugar crystal, the optimal ratio was approximately 19%, and the effectiveness of the operation was of 2%, showing to be somewhat more effective, but it is not enough to protect the agents from the physical market of Brazilian sugar crystal.Keywords: cross hedging with Brazilian hydrous and anhydrous American ethanol, spot market of crystal sugar, effectiveness.O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar se operações de cross hedge com contratos futuros de etanol hidratado brasileiro e etanol anidro americano seriam uma ferramenta eficiente contra movimentos indesejáveis nos preços do açúcar cristal, dada a ausência de um contrato futuro para os produtores de açúcar cristal no período de 2010-2012. Foram construídas quatro séries semanais para a estimação da razão ótima e da efetividade do cross hedge. Através da matriz de variâncias e covariâncias obtidas com a estimação dos modelos VAR (Vetor Autorregressivo), obteve-se a razão ótima e a efetividade da operação de cross hedge. A razão ótima do cross hedge entre futuro de etanol hidratado brasileiro e açúcar cristal foi de aproximadamente 2%, mas a operação não se mostrou efetiva. Já para o cross hedge entre etanol anidro americano e açúcar cristal brasileiro, a razão ótima foi de aproximadamente 19%, e a efetividade dessa operação foi de 2%, mostrando ser um tanto mais efetiva, mas não sendo suficiente para proteger os agentes do mercado físico de açúcar cristal brasileiro.Palavras-chave: cross hedge com etanol hidratado brasileiro e anidro americano, mercado à vista de açúcar cristal, efetividade

Volatilidade e determinantes dos capitais externos: os casos do Brasil e dos EUA

A volatilidade dos capitais externos é um risco para a estabilidade macroeconômica e financeira. Este estudo identifica e analisa os determinantes da volatilidade dos capitais externos para o Brasil e os Estados Unidos do primeiro trimestre de 1990 ao segundo trimestre de 2018. Depois de construir duas medidas de volatilidade para os capitais externos, estima-se os determinantes dessa volatilidade por meio do modelo VEC e DOLS. Os resultados sugerem que a volatilidade da entrada de capitais externos é superior para o Brasil, por outro lado, para a saída de capitais domésticos, se sobressai a volatilidade dos capitais dos EUA. Os principais resultados sustentam que algumas variáveis se destacam como influenciadoras da volatilidade dos capitais externos, quais sejam: o risco global, a inflação e o preço do petróleo. Conclui-se que as políticas ligadas à estabilidade financeira decorrentes de volatilidade de capitais podem se pautar por quais tipos de capitais apresentam efeitos mais danosos em termos de volatilidade

Monetary policy through credit control: An analysis of the inflation target period

O artigo discute a eficácia do uso da taxa de juros para o controle inflacionário, comparando- o com o uso do volume de crédito. Dado que a demanda agregada brasileira possui como principal componente o consumo das famílias, seria válido questionar se a taxa de juros é melhor para controlar o consumo do que o controle direto sobre o volume de crédito concedido ao consumidor. Para tal objetivo, é utilizado o modelo VAR, para o período pós-metas de inflação. Os principais resultados obtidos são que a inflação brasileira não seria essencialmente de demanda e que a política monetária via SELIC mostra-se mais eficaz do que o crédito para explicar o comportamento do consumo.Palavras-chave: política monetária, crédito, inflação, VAR.The article discusses the effectiveness of the use of the interest rate to control inflation as compared with the use of the credit volume. Since Brazil’s aggregate demand has as its main component the consumption of families, it makes sense to ask whether the interest rate is better to control consumption than the direct control of the credit volume available to consumers. To examine this question, a VAR model was used for the period of the policy of inflation targets. The mains results are that Brazil’s inflation does not seem to be one of demand and that a monetary policy based on the interest rate is more effective than credit to explain the behavior of consumers.Key words: monetary policy, credit, inflation, VAR

O Contágio da Crise do Subprime nos Índices Setoriais do Mercado Acionário Brasileiro: Uma Abordagem dos Modelos de Volatilidade Condicional Multivariados

Oscillations within the financial market during the subprime crisis caused an increase in volatility and a fall in asset prices, in addition to increasing the degree of normal market movements. This study analyzed the contagion effect of the international financial crisis on the Brazilian stock market indices upon studying the estimated covariance patterns between the Brazilian and American stock market indices. The empirical analysis was based on the multivariate BEKK-GARCH models. The results showed that the estimation of the covariance structure between 2007 and 2010 had clear evidence of contagion in the indices investigated: Electricity (IEE), Telecommunications (ITEL), Consumption (ICON), Industrial Sector (INDX), Real Estate (IMOB), and Financial (IFNC). During the period of the international financial crisis, there was an increase in the covariance between the American and Brazilian market indices. The IMOB and IFNC indices showed the highest contagions among all the ones analyzed, reflecting the losses of the civil construction industry along with internal and external credit scarcity.As oscilações no mercado financeiro durante a crise do subprime ocasionaram a elevação da volatilidade e queda dos preços dos ativos, além de elevar o grau dos movimentos comuns entre os mercados. Este trabalho analisou o efeito contágio da crise financeira internacional sobre os índices do mercado de ações do Brasil, a partir do estudo do padrão das covariâncias estimadas entre os índices do mercado acionário brasileiro e americano. A análise empírica foi baseada nos modelos multivariados GARCH-BEKK. Os resultados mostraram que a estrutura das covariâncias estimadas, entre os anos de 2007 e 2010, indicou claras evidências de contágio nos índices considerados. No período da crise financeira internacional, houve uma elevação da covariância entre os índices dos mercados norte-americano e brasileiro. Os Índices Imobiliário e Financeiro apresentaram os maiores contágios entre todos analisados, refletindo as perdas das indústrias de construção civil, somadas à escassez de crédito interno e externo

Integração espacial de mercados na presença de custos de transação: um estudo para o mercado de boi gordo em Minas Gerais e São Paulo

The analysis of market integration of agricultural commodities based on price information are limited because the effects of transaction costs are not considered in the adjustment process. The main objective of this paper was to estimate the possible transaction costs impacts on market integration of beef cattle between the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo. It was estimated a Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVEC model) using monthly price data for the period from January 1972 to August 2005. The results indicated the presence of threshold cointegration implying that transaction costs have important effect on the price adjustment process.market integration, transaction costs, beef cattle, TVEC model, threshold cointegration., Agribusiness, Q13, C32,

DETERMINANTES DA ERRADICAÇÃO DA FEBRE AFTOSA NO BRASIL

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) has been a problem for the Brazilian livestock since the XIX century. Once it affects the livestock productivity and has always been a problem for the country exports due to the imposition of sanitary barriers. In 1992, when no state was free from FMD, the National Program for Eradication of FMD (PNEFA) was implemented. Since then good results has been obtained with control and eradication of the disease in some states. However, in other states the problem still persists. It is important to determine why some states have faced difficulties in reaching the status of free from FMD while others not. This work aimed to identify the factors which discriminate the populations of states free from FMD from those not free. The results showed that the private efforts in controlling the disease are the most important variables for differentiating the states free from the non-free ones, together with the lack of public investment. The bad climatic conditions of most of the non-free states seem to contribute to the lack of interest to eradicate the disease. It is suggested attention of the authorities in relation to the state of Alagoas which has presented sufficient scores to be considered free from FMD.foot and mouth disease, Brazil, discriminant analysis, livestock, PNEFA.,

Demanda industrial de energia elétrica em Minas Gerais, 1970-2002

The main objective of this paper was to obtain an estimate for the industrial electricity demand in Minas Gerais in the period from 1970 to 2002. After identifying that the series were nonstationary, it was used the Cointegration approach, being estimated a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC Model). The results showed that both price and income elasticities are inferiors to the unit. The projections for period 2004/2008 indicate that the consumption of electricity should present superior taxes of growth to the observed ones in the decade of 90.Industrial Demand, Electricity, Cointegration, VEC Model, Demand and Price Analysis,