A high-resolution bedrock map for the Antarctic Peninsula

Assessing and projecting the dynamic response of glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula to changed atmospheric and oceanic forcing requires high-resolution ice thickness data as an essential geometric constraint for ice flow models. Here, we derive a complete bedrock data set for the Antarctic Peninsula north of 70° S on a 100 m grid. We calculate distributed ice thickness based on surface topography and simple ice dynamic modelling. Our approach is constrained with all available thickness measurements from Operation IceBridge and gridded ice flow speeds for the entire study region. The new data set resolves the rugged subglacial topography in great detail, indicates deeply incised troughs, and shows that 34% of the ice volume is grounded below sea level. The Antarctic Peninsula has the potential to raise global sea level by 69 ± 5 mm. In comparison to Bedmap2, covering all Antarctica on a 1 km grid, a significantly higher mean ice thickness (+48%) is found

A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise

The anticipated retreat of glaciers around the globe will pose far-reaching challenges to the management of fresh water resources and significantly contribute to sea-level rise within the coming decades. Here, we present a new model for calculating the twenty-first century mass changes of all glaciers on Earth outside the ice sheets. The Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM) includes mass loss due to frontal ablation at marine-terminating glacier fronts and accounts for glacier advance/retreat and surface elevation changes. Simulations are driven with monthly near-surface air temperature and precipitation from 14 Global Circulation Models forced by RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Depending on the scenario, the model yields a global glacier volume loss of 25–48% between 2010 and 2100. For calculating glacier contribution to sea-level rise, we account for ice located below sea-level presently displacing ocean water. This effect reduces the glacier contribution by 11–14%, so that our model predicts a sea-level equivalent (multi-model mean ±1 standard deviation) of 79±24 mm (RCP2.6), 108±28 mm (RCP4.5), and 157±31 mm (RCP8.5). Mass losses by frontal ablation account for 10% of total ablation globally, and up to ~30% regionally. Regional equilibrium line altitudes are projected to rise by ~100–800 m until 2100, but the effect on ice wastage depends on initial glacier hypsometries

A novel approach to estimate glacier mass balance in the Tien Shan and Pamir based on transient snowline observations

Glaciers are recognised as an excellent proxy for climate change and their centennial massloss has accelerated during the past decades. The Central Asian mountain ranges Tien Shan and Pamir host over 25,000 glaciers that have been observed to respond heterogeneous to climate change. Glacier changes in the region have very important consequences on the water availability for the densely populated lowlands. Despite the significance and severity that climate change exerts on the Central Asian water towers, the glacier response is still poorly understood, hampering sound interpretations and predictions of future threats and opportunities. A significant data gap in the field measurement series from the mid-1990s to around 2010, limits the analysis of long-term trends. Despite the recent efforts to re-established the historical cryospheric monitoring network, continuous long-term glacier mass balance time series remain sparse for Central Asia. Thus, improved temporal and spatial coverage of glacier monitoring is essential. Remote sensing techniques are a powerful tool to study a large number of remotely located and unmeasured glaciers and provide a possibility to partly bridge the aforementioned deficit in data availability. However, the coarse temporal resolution of geodetic mass balance assessments is not suitable to improve the understanding of ongoing processes. This accentuates the indispensable need for improved and extended annual to seasonal observations of mass change of inaccessible and remote glaciers on a cost and labour effective basis as well as for a more elaborated and enhanced, process-orientated methodology. This work provides a combination of detailed in situ measurements and remote sensing based glacier mass change observation from local to regional scale. A multi-level strategy is applied to complement data from long-term glaciological surveys and remote sensing (snowline observations and geodetic mass balance measurements) with numerical modelling to obtain information at high temporal and spatial resolution for individual glaciers. Through modelling constrained with transient snowlines, annual mass balance time series for a large amount of glaciers located in the Tien Shan and Pamir were made available. Such mass balance estimates provide valuable baseline data for climate change assessments, runoff projection, hazard evaluation and enhance process understanding. A better understanding of the regional annual variability of glacier response to climate change in the Pamir and Tien Shan became possible based on the outcome of this thesis. In the presented thesis the results are discussed in detail, the weaknesses and strengths of the developed methodology are unfolded and the relevant perspective and future research outlined.Gletscher sind ausgezeichnete Indikatoren für den Klimawandel. Ihr langjähriger Massen- verlust hat sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten weltweit akzentuiert. Die zentralasiatischen Bergketten Tien Shan und Pamir beherbergen u¨ber 25’000 Gletscher. Studien zeigen, dass diese Gletscher heterogen auf den Klimawandel reagieren. Gletscherver¨anderungen in der Region haben wichtige Auswirkungen auf die Wasserverfügbarkeit für das dicht besiedelte Flachland. Trotz den bedeutenden Konsequenzen welche durch den Klimawandel auf diese regionalen Wasserspeicher ausgeübt wird, ist die Veränderung der Gletscher im Tien Shan und Pamir immer noch relativ unbekannt, was fundierte Interpretationen und Vorhersagen zukünftiger Gefahren und Chancen erschwert. Eine prägnante Datenlücke in den existierenden Messreihen von Mitte der 1990er Jahren bis ca. 2010 schränkt eine detaillierte Analyse langfristiger Entwicklungen weiter ein. Trotz der jüngsten Bemühungen, das historische Kryosphäremessnetz wieder herzustellen, bleiben kontinuierliche Langzeitmessungen für die Gletscher in Zentralasien limitiert. Eine verbesserte zeitliche und räumliche Abdeckung der Gletscherbeobachtungen ist daher unerlässlich. Fernerkundungstechniken sind gängige Methoden, um eine große Anzahl abgelegener und unerforschter Gletscher zu untersuchen. Mit solchen Methoden kann das Defizit an Datenverfügbarkeit der Region teilweise kompensiert werden. Die grobe zeitliche Auflösung der geodätischen Massenbilanzberechnungen und das somit limitierte Prozessverständnis unterstreichen jedoch den unabdingbaren Bedarf nach verbesserten und erweiterten jährlichen bis saisonalen Massenbilanzbeobachtungen. Ab- schätzungen auf ausgedehnter räumlicher Skala, sowie eine stärkere Prozess orientierte Forschung sind nötig. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt eine Kombination aus detaillierten Feldmessungen und Fernerkundungsbeobachtungen der Gletschermassenänderung im Tien Shan und Pamir. Die angewandte Strategie basiert auf mehreren Ebenen aus lokalen bis regionalen Studien. Mit dieser Strategie werden Daten aus langzeit-glaziologischen Feldmessungen und aus der Fernerkundung (Schneelinienbeobachtungen, geodätische Massenbilanzmessungen) mit numerischen Modellierungen komplementieren. Dabei werden Informationen für ausgewählte Gletscher mit hoher zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung extrahiert. Durch das Modellieren mit wiederholten Schneelinienbeobachtungen, welche zur Kalibrierung verwendet werden, konnten jährliche Massenbilanzzeitreihen für eine große Anzahl von Gletschern im Studiengebiet berechnet werden. Solche grossräumigen und zeitlich hochaufgelösten Abschätzungen liefern wertvolle Grundlagen für detaillierte Studien über die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, ermöglichen fundierte Abflussprojektionen und erlauben verbesserte Gefahrenanalysen. Basierend auf den Ergebnissen dieser Arbeit, wird ein besseres Verständnis der regionalen jährlichen Variabilität der Gletscherreaktionen auf den Klimawandel im Pamir und Tien Shan ermöglicht. In der hier vorgelegten Arbeit werden die Resultate im Detail diskutiert, die Schwächen und Stärken der entwickelten Methodik offengelegt und die relevanten Perspektiven abgefasst

The length of the world’s glaciers – a new approach for the global calculation of center lines

Glacier length is an important measure of glacier geometry. Nevertheless, global glacier inventories are mostly lacking length data. Only recently semi-automated approaches to measure glacier length have been developed and applied regionally. Here we present a first global assessment of glacier length using an automated method that relies on glacier surface slope, distance to the glacier margins and a set of trade-off functions. The method is developed for East Greenland, evaluated for East Greenland as well as for Alaska and eventually applied to all ~ 200 000 glaciers around the globe. The evaluation highlights accurately calculated glacier length where digital elevation model (DEM) quality is high (East Greenland) and limited accuracy on low-quality DEMs (parts of Alaska). Measured length of very small glaciers is subject to a certain level of ambiguity. The global calculation shows that only about 1.5% of all glaciers are longer than 10 km, with Bering Glacier (Alaska/Canada) being the longest glacier in the world at a length of 196 km. Based on the output of our algorithm we derive global and regional area–length scaling laws. Differences among regional scaling parameters appear to be related to characteristics of topography and glacier mass balance. The present study adds glacier length as a key parameter to global glacier inventories. Global and regional scaling laws might prove beneficial in conceptual glacier models

Sensitivity of very small glaciers in the Swiss Alps to future climate change

Very small glaciers (<0.5 km2) account for more than 80% of the total number of glaciers in mid- to low-latitude mountain ranges. Although their total area and volume is small compared to larger glaciers, they are a relevant component of the cryosphere, contributing to landscape formation, local hydrology, and sea-level rise. Worldwide glacier monitoring mostly focuses on medium-sized to large glaciers leaving us with a limited understanding of the response of dwarf glaciers to climate change. In this study, we present a comprehensive modeling framework to assess past and future changes of very small glaciers at the mountain-range scale. Among other processes our model accounts for snow redistribution, changes in glacier geometry, and the time-varying effect of supraglacial debris. It computes the mass balance distribution, the englacial temperature regime and proglacial runoff. The evolution of 1133 individual glaciers in the Swiss Alps is modeled in detail until 2060 based on new distributed data sets. Our results indicate that 52% of all very small glaciers in Switzerland will completely disappear within the next 25 years. However, a few avalanche-fed glaciers at low elevation might be able to survive even substantial atmospheric warming. We find highly variable sensitivities of very small glaciers to air temperature change, with gently-sloping, low-elevation, and debris-covered glaciers being most sensitive

Deriving the response of glaciers from an ice-dynamic model

The Tenth Symposium on Polar Science/Ordinary sessions: [OM] Polar Meteorology and Glaciology, Wed. 4 Dec. / 2F Auditorium, National Institute of Polar Researc

Surface elevation and mass changes of all Swiss glaciers 1980–2010

Since the mid-1980s, glaciers in the European Alps have shown widespread and accelerating mass losses. This article presents glacier-specific changes in surface elevation, volume and mass balance for all glaciers in the Swiss Alps from 1980 to 2010. Together with glacier outlines from the 1973 inventory, the DHM25 Level 1 digital elevation models (DEMs) for which the source data over glacierized areas were acquired from 1961 to 1991 are compared to the swissALTI3D DEMs from 2008 to 2011 combined with the new Swiss Glacier Inventory SGI2010. Due to the significant differences in acquisition dates of the source data used, mass changes are temporally homogenized to directly compare individual glaciers or glacierized catchments. Along with an in-depth accuracy assessment, results are validated against volume changes from independent photogrammetrically derived DEMs of single glaciers. Observed volume changes are largest between 2700 and 2800 m a.s.l. and remarkable even above 3500 m a.s.l. The mean geodetic mass balance is −0.62 ± 0.07 m w.e. yr⁻¹ for the entire Swiss Alps over the reference period 1980– 2010. For the main hydrological catchments, it ranges from −0.52 to −1.07 m w.e. yr⁻¹. The overall volume loss calculated from the DEM differencing is −22.51 ± 1.76 km³

New long-term mass-balance series for the Swiss Alps

In this study we present 19 new or re-analysed series of glacier-wide seasonal mass balance for the Swiss Alps based on direct measurements. The records partly start around 1920 and continue until today. Previously unpublished and unevaluated observations of point winter and annual balance are compiled from various sources and archives. These highly valuable datasets have not yet been consistently evaluated and were thus unavailable to the scientific community. Using distributed modelling for spatial interpolation and extrapolation and homogenization of the point measurements, we infer continuous series of area-averaged mass balance. The results are validated against independent decadal ice volume changes from photogrammetric surveys. Six of the new seasonal series cover 60 years and more and add a substantial amount of information on the variations of regional glacier mass change. This will strengthen the worldwide collection of glacier monitoring data, especially for the data-sparse period before the 1980s. We compare our results to existing long-term series and present an updated assessment of mass-balance variability and glacier sensitivity throughout the European Alps

Multi-decadal observations in the Alps reveal less and wetter snow, with increasing variability

Snowpack is an important temporal water storage for downstream areas, a potential source of natural hazards (avalanches or floods) and a prerequisite for winter tourism. Here, we use thousands of manual measurements of the water equivalent of the snow cover (SWE) from almost 30 stations between 1,200 and 2,900 m a.s.l. from four long-term monitoring programs (earliest start in 1937) in the center of the European Alps to derive daily SWE based on snow depth data for each station. The inferred long-term daily SWE time series were analyzed regarding spatial differences, as well as potential temporal changes in variability and seasonal averages during the last 7 decades (1957–2022). The investigation based on important hydro-climatological SWE indicators demonstrates significant decreasing trends for mean SWE (Nov-Apr) and for maximum SWE, as well as a significantly earlier occurrence of the maximum SWE and earlier disappearance of the continuous snow cover. The anomalies of mean SWE revealed that the series of low-snow winters since the 1990s is unprecedented since the beginning of measurements. Increased melting during the accumulation period below 2000 m a.s.l is also observed–especially in the most recent years–as well as slower melt rates in spring, and higher day-to-day variability. For these trends no regional differences were found despite the climatological variability of the investigated stations. This indicates that the results are transferable to other regions of the Alps