Resolving Gas Flows in the Ultraluminous Starburst IRAS23365+3604 with Keck LGSAO/OSIRIS

Keck OSIRIS/LGSAO observations of the ultraluminous galaxy IRAS~23365+3604 resolve a circumnuclear bar (or irregular disk) of semimajor axis 0.42" (520 pc) in Paschen-alpha emission. The line-of-sight velocity of the ionized gas increases from the northeast toward the southwest; this gradient is perpendicular to the photometric major axis of the infrared emission. Two pairs of bends in the zero-velocity line are detected. The inner bend provides evidence for gas inflow onto the circumnuclear disk/bar structure. We interpret the gas kinematics on kiloparsec scales in relation to the molecular gas disk and multiphase outflow discovered previously. In particular, the fast component of the outflow (detected previously in line wings) is not detected, adding support to the conjecture that the fast wind originates well beyond the nucleus. These data directly show the dynamics of gas inflow and outflow in the central kiloparsec of a late-stage, gas-rich merger and demonstrate the potential of integral field spectroscopy to improve our understanding of the role of gas flows during the growth phase of bulges and supermassive black holes.Comment: 14 pages with 7 figures accepted to the astrophysical journa

Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. Performing extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, we find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments in policy rules. While asset prices improve Taylor rule estimates, different assets prove most relevant across countries and this result could be seen as complicating the tasks of the European Central Bank. Encompassing tests show that forecast-based outperform forward-looking Taylor rules. A policy implication is that central banks ought to release their own forecasts and the basis upon which they are generated.Monetary policy reaction functions, Asset prices, Instruments, European Central Bank

The demand for money by private firms in a regulated economy: Theoretical underpinnings and empirical evidence for Germany 1960 - 1998

Based on a cash-in-advance approach, this paper investigates theoretically the determinants of money holdings of firms under the conditions of a highly regulated labor market and analyses empirically the demand for money of German businesses during the period 1960-1998. As a result of our theoretical analysis the demand for cash balances by firms for shadow market activities depends among other things positively on the expected wage wedge. The empirical results show that the coefficient of the wage wegde has a positive sign in the long-run cointegrating relationship and is statistically significant positive in the short-run dynamics of the error correction model. -- Auf der Grundlage eines Cash-in-advance-Ansatzes untersucht der vorliegende Beitrag die Bestimmungsgründe der Geldnachfrage von deutschen Unternehmen (1960-1998) - vor dem Hintergrund eines hoch regulierten Arbeitsmarktes. Das theoretische Modell ergibt, daß Unternehmen Kasse für Aktivitäten auf dem Markt für Schwarzarbeit unterhalten und zwar um so mehr, je größer die Kluft zwischen den Bruttoarbeitskosten und den Nettolöhnen (wage wedge) ist. Der Koeffizient der wage wedge weist ein positives Vorzeichen in der Kointegrationsbeziehung auf und ist statistisch signifikant positiv in der kurzfristigen Dynamik des Fehler-Korrektur-Modells.Money Demand by Firms,Wage Wedge,Cash-in-Advance Model,Cointegration,Error-Correction,Geldnachfrage von Unternehmen,Cash-in-advance-Modell,Kointegration,FehlerKorrektur-Modell,Lohnzusatzkosten

Policy Words and Policy Deeds: The ECB and the Euro

This paper examines the role of the ECB communication activities on daily Eurodollar exchange rate and interest rates. We estimate the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate using a technique that explicitly recognizes the joint determination of both the levels and volatilities of these variables. We also consider more traditional estimation strategies as a test of the robustness of our main results. We introduce a new indicator of ECB communications policies that focuses on what the ECB says about the future economic outlook for the euro area along five different economic dimensions. The impact of ECB communications policies is more apparent in the time series framework than in the heteroskedasticity estimator approach. Time series estimates reveal that interest rate changes generally have a much larger impact on exchange rate movements, and their volatility, than do ECB verbal pronouncements. Previous studies that conclude that news effects are significant at the daily frequency may have reached such a conclusion because the measurement of news was too highly aggregated. The endogeneity of the exchange rate-interest rate relationship is more apparent when the proxy for monetary policy is the euro area-US differential than when any other proxy for monetary policy is employed.Central bank communication, Eurodollar exchange rate

The Bundesbank's Communications Strategy and Policy Conflicts with the Federal Government

In this paper we provide an estimate of the likelihood of conflict between the federal government and the Bundesbank for the 1989 – 1998 period. We rely on a novel proxy for the impact of public communication by Bundesbank officials on the probability of conflict, in addition to interest rate, exchange rate, money supply behavior, as well as electoral influences. The empirical evidence is consistent with the view that speeches by the Bundesbank President dealing with inflation and economic policy are a positive source of conflict in a probabilistic sense. Conflict was not a constant but flared up at times of economic stress and could be exacerbated by the "talking" of Bundesbank officials. --Deutsche Bundesbank,Conflict,Central Bank Communication,Political Factors

DSN human factors project

The project plan was to hold focus groups to identify the factors influencing the ease of use characteristics of software and to bond the problem. A questionnaire survey was conducted to evaluate those factors which were more appropriately measured with that method. The performance oriented factors were analyzed and relationships hypothesized. The hypotheses were put to test in the experimental phase of the project. In summary, the initial analysis indicates that there is an initial performance effect favoring computer controlled dialogue but the advantage fades fast as operators become experienced. The user documentation style is seen to have a significant effect on performance. The menu and prompt command formats are preferred by inexperienced operators. The short form mnemonic is least favored. There is no clear best command format but the short form mnemonic is clearly the worst

Trading Behavior During Stock Market Downturns: The Dow, 1915 - 2004

Stock markets periodically experience sharp falls with some referred to as outright crashes. The extant literature has generally resorted to survey type evidence to determine the behavior of investors during such episodes. These kind of studies come to the conclusion that fundamentals play little role in explaining sharp stock market downturns as in October 1987. We know of no econometric study that asks whether feedback, momentum or trend chasing type behavior might explain the behavior of large stock market downturns. Resorting to a feedback trader model, we estimate a variety of asymmetric GARCH-type models. Based on daily data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index since 1915 we find that there is evidence of positive feedback trading during episodes of stock market crashes. Hence, the econometric evidence is broadly consistent with findings based on surveys. --

Dectecting speculative bubbles in stock prices: A new approach and some evidence for the US

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an empirically valid description of US stock price behavior in the long-run, while short-run deviations of actual share prices from present value prices are driven by nonfundamental factors like speculative bubbles and/or noise trading behavior. Our empirical findings for the US stock market covering the 1871:1 - 2000:12 period provide strong and robust support for the hypothesis that in the short-run US stock prices exhibit nonfundamental run-ups followed by crashes, while in the long-run US share prices adhere to fundamentals. --Present Value Model,US Stock Prices,Asymmetric Adjustment,Cointegration