The correlation between unemployment and economic growth in Latin America – Okun’s law estimates by country

Producción CientíficaAbstract. The authors question the validity of Okunʼs law in Latin America in this paper. Based on several econometric models, they show that fluctuations in economic activity have a lesser impact on unemployment rates in Latin American countries than in other, more advanced economies. Instead of stimulus policies focused on reducing unemployment in general, these countries need targeted policies that encourage job creation in specific sectors. That being said, the unemployment– output ratio differs from one Latin American country to another. Where the ratio is weak or non-existent, cyclical variations adversely affect the quality of employment – another aspect that must also be addressed by economic policy.Ministerio deCiencia e Innovación,Grant/Award Number: PID2020-112509GB-I0

Father’s parental leave use in Spain: the effect of education in the household

Producción CientíficaThe aim of this article is to present empirical evidence on the use of parental leave by fathers under the Mediterranean Welfare State, as a Spanish tribute to the legacy of Dr Rush in politics of fatherhood in a comparative perspective. We will focus on the Spanish case to analyze the use of paternity leave by fathers for the period 2001–2017. We consider the family unit – as a setting for bargaining and socialization – from a longitudinal perspective. The paper presents a very valuable and in-depth analysis of socio-demographic factors influencing the family decision to take parental leave by fathers (age, education, employment status, socio-economics). Based on the literature reviewed, we consider that these factors have a greater impact on how parental leave is used differently and how it has evolved over time. The case of Spain is interesting for the research because it represents a political and social model that combines a recent institutional commitment to the work/life balance through the extension of paternity leave for fathers with a male breadwinner family model still in transition

Beyond the added-worker and the discouraged-worker effects: the entitled-worker effect

This paper identifies and analyses a new effect related to the cyclical behavior of labor supply: the Entitled-Worker Effect (EWE). This effect is different from the well-known Added-Worker Effect (AWE) and Discouraged-Worker Effect (DWE). The EWE is a consequence of one of the most important labor institutions: the unemployment benefit (UB). We develop a model with uncertainty about the results of the job seeking and transactions costs linked to such a search process in which a kind of moral hazard appears. This creates new incentives for workers and produces an additional counter-cyclical pressure on aggregate labor supply, but with a different foundation from that of the AWE. Finally, we show some empirical evidence supporting the EWE for the Spanish case

Natural and cyclical unemployment: A stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications

This work splits effective unemployment into two components: natural unemployment, and cyclical unemployment. For that purpose, an estimation of the stochastic cost frontier is performed. The study is focused on the 17 autonomous communities in Spain over the period 1982–2012. Results evidence greater importance of the natural component as the principal determinant of effective unemployment.When comparing these results with those obtained applying univariate filters, the distribution in the components of the effective unemployment changes, increasing the importance of cyclical unemployment. This result indicates that the policymakers should have a greater power to implement aggregate demand policies.Ministerio deCiencia e Innovación,Grant/Award Number: PID2020-112509GB-I0

The asymmetric cyclical behaviour of female labour force participation in Latin America

This study measures the responsiveness of female labour participation to changes in the economic cycle at the extensive margin in Latin America. The results provide new evidence regarding the cyclical behaviour of the female labour force participation, making it possible to determine which countries validate the traditional hypotheses of the added and discouraged worker. Another significant finding is that these effects vary during cycles of economic expansion and recession and become stronger when reaching a certain threshold. Therefore, contradictory hypotheses to the added and discouraged worker emerged, which is referred to as subtracted and encouraged workers, both of which are formally validated by examining these effects throughout the economic cycles

The unemployment invariance hypothesis and the implications of added and discouraged worker effects in Latin America

This research explores the long-term equilibrium relationship between unemployment and labour force participation rates for six selected countries in Latin America at both aggregate and gender-disaggregated levels. Cointegration analysis focused on the study of time series is used to validate the unemployment invariance hypothesis and explore added and discouraged worker effects in depth. The results suggest mixed dynamics for the aggregate model; however, a clear gender bias is revealed towards the added worker effect for women, while the discouraged worker effect is confirmed for men. The validity of the unemployment invariance hypothesis in several countries appears to reflect some rigidities that prevent the improvement of nations’ labour markets, exposing issues that economic policies must strategically address

Cessation of activity benefit of Spanish self-employed workers: a heterogeneous impact evaluation

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the effects of a public policy implemented through the Spanish Social Security system: the Cessation of Activity Benefit (CAB) for self-employed workers. Making use of the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (MCVL) and by means of a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) methodology, our results show that, when we do not take into account heterogeneity in the treatment, self-employed workers receiving CAB experience non-employment spells between 22 and 33 logarithmic points longer than their not entitled counterparts. We also detect that this difference is not constant but depends on the likelihood of being treated. We believe that the two traditional problems that affect the insurance markets, consequence of the asymmetric information, adverse selection and moral hazard, are behind these results

Cessation of activity benefit of Spanish self-employed workers: a heterogeneous impact evaluation

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the effects of a public policy implemented through the Spanish Social Security system: the Cessation of Activity Benefit (CAB) for self-employed workers. Making use of the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (MCVL) and by means of a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) methodology, our results show that, when we do not take into account heterogeneity in the treatment, self-employed workers receiving CAB experience non-employment spells between 22 and 33 logarithmic points longer than their not entitled counterparts. We also detect that this difference is not constant but depends on the likelihood of being treated. We believe that the two traditional problems that affect the insurance markets, consequence of the asymmetric information, adverse selection and moral hazard, are behind these results

Dynamic collective bargaining. Frictional effects under open-shop industrial relations

A dynamic Stackelberg game analyzes collective bargaining between a trade union (leader) and a firm (follower) in a monopoly union model. Frictional effects (FE) for the firm encompass symmetric adjustment costs linked to the number of hired and fired workers, plus a wage-dependent term (assuming wage-dependent hiring costs and wage discrimination against newcomers). The union faces marginally increasing costs in firings and marginally decreasing benefits from hirings. The two-part FE for the firm, the FE for the union, or both jointly considered differently affect employment and wages. Interestingly, standard adjustment costs increase hirings, even while the union reduces wages

Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between the unemployment rate and the output growth in Spain at the regional level. The “gap version” with the output growth on the left-hand side of the equation is our benchmark model. We observe in our estimates that all coefficients are significant and show the expected negative sign. Significant regional differences in the Okun’s relationship, both for the short run and the long run, are found. These results are robust to two different specifications for the gaps: the HP filter and the QT procedure. In the final part of the paper, we also find that the OLS and the GMM estimates for panel data exhibit a similar pattern and that there is a clear asymmetry in the Okun’s relationship in booming and recession phases of the Spanish business cycle