Prediction of water temperature metrics using spatial modelling in the Eastern and Western Cape, South Africa

Key aspects of a river's temperature regime are described by magnitudes, timing and durations of thermal events, and frequencies of extreme exceedance events. To understand alterations to thermal regimes, it is necessary to describe thermal time series based on these statistics. Classification of sites based on their thermal metrics, and understanding of spatial patterns of these thermal statistics, provides a powerful approach for comparing study sites against reference sites. Water temperature regime dynamics should be viewed regionally, where regional divisions have an inherent underpinning by an understanding of natural thermal variability. The aim of this research was to link key water temperature metrics to readily-mapped environmental surrogates, and to produce spatial images of temperature metrics: 37 temperature metrics were derived for 12 months of sub-daily water temperatures at 90 sites in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape provinces, South Africa. These metrics were correlated with 16 environmental variables. Correlations enabled development of multiple regression models which facilitated mapping of temperature metrics over the study area. This approach has the potential to be applied at a national scale as more thermal time series are collected nationally. It is argued that the appropriateness of management decisions in rivers can be improved by including guidelines for thermal metrics at a regional scale. Such maps could facilitate incorporation of a temperature component into management guidelines for water resources

Ecological impacts of small dams on South African rivers Part 2: Biotic response – abundance and composition of macroinvertebrate communities

This paper investigates the cumulative impacts of small dams on invertebrate communities in 2 regions of South Africa – the Western Cape and Mpumalanga. Previous research found reduced discharge, increased total dissolved salts, and a decrease in average score per taxon (ASPT; collected using SASS4 methods) at sites with high density of small dams in their catchment. These changes in ASPT are investigated using the invertebrate abundance data available in the River Health Programme. Multivariate analyses found differences in invertebrate communities in rivers with high densities of small dams in their catchment in foothill-gravel streams (in both Western Cape and Mpumalanga) and in foothill-cobble streams (in Western Cape only). Opportunistic taxa that are tolerant of pollution, and capable of exploiting various habitats, and those that prefer slower currents increased in numbers, while other taxa that are sensitive to pollution and disturbance declined in numbers. Some regional differences were noted possibly reflecting climatic differences between the regions. Since the results of this study are correlative, it highlights the need for a systematic (by sites and seasons) and detailed (at species level) collection of data to verify the results of cumulative effects of small dams. This can further the development of a framework for small-dam construction and management that will limit their impact on river catchments

Testing Conditional Independence of Discrete Distributions

We study the problem of testing \emph{conditional independence} for discrete distributions. Specifically, given samples from a discrete random variable $(X, Y, Z)$ on domain $[\ell_1]\times[\ell_2] \times [n]$, we want to distinguish, with probability at least $2/3$, between the case that $X$ and $Y$ are conditionally independent given $Z$ from the case that $(X, Y, Z)$ is $\epsilon$-far, in $\ell_1$-distance, from every distribution that has this property. Conditional independence is a concept of central importance in probability and statistics with a range of applications in various scientific domains. As such, the statistical task of testing conditional independence has been extensively studied in various forms within the statistics and econometrics communities for nearly a century. Perhaps surprisingly, this problem has not been previously considered in the framework of distribution property testing and in particular no tester with sublinear sample complexity is known, even for the important special case that the domains of $X$ and $Y$ are binary. The main algorithmic result of this work is the first conditional independence tester with {\em sublinear} sample complexity for discrete distributions over $[\ell_1]\times[\ell_2] \times [n]$. To complement our upper bounds, we prove information-theoretic lower bounds establishing that the sample complexity of our algorithm is optimal, up to constant factors, for a number of settings. Specifically, for the prototypical setting when $\ell_1, \ell_2 = O(1)$, we show that the sample complexity of testing conditional independence (upper bound and matching lower bound) is \[ \Theta\left({\max\left(n^{1/2}/\epsilon^2,\min\left(n^{7/8}/\epsilon,n^{6/7}/\epsilon^{8/7}\right)\right)}\right)\,. \

The coupling between flame surface dynamics and species mass conservation in premixed turbulent combustion

Current flamelot models based on a description of the flame surface dynamics require the closure of two inter-related equations: a transport equation for the mean reaction progress variable, (tilde)c, and a transport equation for the flame surface density, Sigma. The coupling between these two equations is investigated using direct numerical simulations (DNS) with emphasis on the correlation between the turbulent fluxes of (tilde)c, bar(pu''c''), and Sigma, (u'')(sub S)Sigma. Two different DNS databases are used in the present work: a database developed at CTR by A. Trouve and a database developed by C. J. Rutland using a different code. Both databases correspond to statistically one-dimensional premixed flames in isotropic turbulent flow. The run parameters, however, are significantly different, and the two databases correspond to different combustion regimes. It is found that in all simulated flames, the correlation between bar(pu''c'') and (u'')(sub S)Sigma is always strong. The sign, however, of the turbulent flux of (tilde)c or Sigma with respect to the mean gradients, delta(tilde)c/delta(x) or delta(Sigma)/delta(x), is case-dependent. The CTR database is found to exhibit gradient turbulent transport of (tilde)c and Sigma, whereas the Rutland DNS features counter-gradient diffusion. The two databases are analyzed and compared using various tools (a local analysis of the flow field near the flame, a classical analysis of the conservation equation for (tilde)(u''c''), and a thin flame theoretical analysis). A mechanism is then proposed to explain the discrepancies between the two databases and a preliminary simple criterion is derived to predict the occurrence of gradient/counter-gradient turbulent diffusion

Pdf modeling for premixed turbulent combustion based on the properties of iso-concentration surfaces

In premixed turbulent flames the presence of intense mixing zones located in front of and behind the flame surface leads to a requirement to study the behavior of iso-concentration surfaces defined for all values of the progress variable (equal to unity in burnt gases and to zero in fresh mixtures). To support this study, some theoretical and mathematical tools devoted to level surfaces are first developed. Then a database of direct numerical simulations of turbulent premixed flames is generated and used to investigate the internal structure of the flame brush, and a new pdf model based on the properties of iso-surfaces is proposed

Chloroplast microsatellites: measures of genetic diversity and the effect of homoplasy

Chloroplast microsatellites have been widely used in population genetic studies of conifers in recent years. However, their haplotype configurations suggest that they could have high levels of homoplasy, thus limiting the power of these molecular markers. A coalescent-based computer simulation was used to explore the influence of homoplasy on measures of genetic diversity based on chloroplast microsatellites. The conditions of the simulation were defined to fit isolated populations originating from the colonization of one single haplotype into an area left available after a glacial retreat. Simulated data were compared with empirical data available from the literature for a species of Pinus that has expanded north after the Last Glacial Maximum. In the evaluation of genetic diversity, homoplasy was found to have little influence on Nei's unbiased haplotype diversity (H(E)) while Goldstein's genetic distance estimates (D2sh) were much more affected. The effect of the number of chloroplast microsatellite loci for evaluation of genetic diversity is also discussed

Soil bacterial communities are shaped by temporal and environmental filtering: evidence from a long‐term chronosequence

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113766/1/emi12762.pd

1.4669, a new lean duplex stainless steel with improved toughness and machinability

Among duplex stainless steels, the lean duplex family is a quite new family, still in expansion. It allows a goodcorrosion resistance, most of the time over that of a standard 4301 austenitic grade, to high mechanicalproperties, far higher than that of a 4301, and to a low amount of expensive alloying elements such as nickelcompared to that of a 4301.But when these grades are produced in high diameter bars, they often present a bad toughness and a poormachinability, these properties being critical when trying to use such high diameter bars in variousapplications. For example, the well-known 4062 and 4162 grades present an impact strength below 100 J at20°C and below 50 J at - 46°C on ?73mm bars. Moreover, their machinability in terms of tool wear and chipbreakability is below that of 4301 grades, especially when these last ones are of an improved machinabilityversion, such as UGIMA®. The poor machinability of these lean duplex grades is mainly due to their highmechanical properties which induce high cutting forces on the tools during a machining operation, thus, rapidtool wear, and is also due to their very low sulphur content (less than 10ppm) which does not help the chipbreaking contrarily to what happens on a 4301 grade with 0,025%S.It is the reason why UGITECH developed these last few years the 1.4669, a new lean duplex grade with a lowernitrogen content and a higher copper content in order to improve the toughness of this kind of grades and tolower the tool wear rates when machining them via a decrease of the cutting forces on the tools. Moreover, acontrol of the inclusions in the grade was performed in order to improve the chip breakability of the gradewhen machined. Of course, this new grade keeps a corrosion resistance over that of a standard 4301.INTRODUCTIONAmong duplex stainless steel, the lean duplex family is a quitenew family, still in expansion. Themost known are the 1.4062 andthe 1.4162 Lean Duplex Stainless Steels (LDSS). Compared to the1.4362, these new LDSS have a lower amount of expensive alloyingelements such as nickel (between 1,5 and 3% compared tothe 4,5% of the 1.4362). To keep a good ratio between ferrite andaustenite (not so far from 50/50) in these two LDSS, their N wasraised from around 0,12% to 0,2% and, in 1.4162, chromium wasslightly decreased (from 22-23% for 1.4362 to 21% for 1.4162).The consequences of these chemical analysismodification aremultipleas detailed in paragraphs 1 to 3: loss in toughness, in machinability(in terms of tool wear rates), and in some cases in corrosionresistance compared to the standard 1.4362. So the questionis: how can we improve the machinability and toughnessof a LDSS, without too expensive alloying elements and keep, atthe same time, a corrosion resistance equal of over that of a 1.4301austenitic SS?TOUGHNESS OF 1.4062 AND 1.4162 LDSSDifferent ? 73mm bars of 1.4062, 1.4162 and 1.4362 were industriallyproduced in order to compare their toughness, corro-Nicolas Renaudot, Eric Chauveau, Marc MantelUGITECH research centre, FrancePaper presented at the 7th European Stainless Steel Conference -Como, 21-23 September 2011sion resistance and machinability. The chemical analysi

Tangled banks: A landscape genomic evaluation of Wallace's Riverine barrier hypothesis for three Amazon plant species

Wallace's Riverine Barrier hypothesis is one of the earliest biogeographic explanations for Amazon speciation, but it has rarely been tested in plants. In this study, we used three woody Amazonian plant species to evaluate Wallace's Hypothesis using tools of landscape genomics. We generated unlinked single‐nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from the nuclear genomes of 234 individuals (78 for each plant species) across 13 sampling sites along the Rio Branco, Brazil, for Amphirrhox longifolia (8,075 SNPs), Psychotria lupulina (9,501 SNPs) and Passiflora spinosa (14,536 SNPs). Although significantly different migration rates were estimated between species, the population structure data do not support the hypothesis that the Rio Branco—an allopatric barrier for primates and birds—is a significant genetic barrier for Amphirrhox longifolia, Passiflora spinosa or Psychotria lupulina. Overall, we demonstrated that medium‐ sized rivers in the Amazon Basin, such as the Rio Branco, are permeable barriers to gene flow for animal‐dispersed and animal‐pollinated plant species.National Science Foundation, NASAFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, Grant/Award Number: 2013/12633‐8, 2015/07141‐4, 2017/02302‐5 and 2012/50260‐6; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Grant/Award Number: 310871/2017‐4; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Grant/Award Number: 88881.064974/2014‐01; National Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number: FESD 1338694 and DEB 1240869; Universidade de São PauloPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/148338/1/Nazareno2019.pdf85Description of Nazareno2019.pdf : Main articl