Securing Access to Sustain Presence and Overcome Chinese Influence in the Indo-Pacific

NPS NRP Technical ReportChinese control over ports in the Indo-Pacific region is increasingly viewed by the United States and its partners as a threat to their security interests. More specifically, analysts are inclined to see the Belt and Road Initiative as a vehicle for extending Chinese military influence. Until recently, it was difficult for the United States, let alone the U.S. Navy on its own, to compete directly with Chinese efforts to acquire access to ports and logistics facilities in the Indo-Pacific. Traditional tools of security cooperation and assistance were not designed to meet the type of challenge the BRI presents. However, in 2019 the United States established the Development Finance Corporation and joined with Australia and Japan to create the Blue Dot Network. These initiatives provide resources and official support for infrastructure development in lower income countries. This study aims to identify where, when, and how U.S. naval diplomacy can leverage these new initiatives to counter Chinese access and logistics facilities in the Indo-Pacific while enhancing USN access and logistics there.N3/N5 - Plans & StrategyThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Securing Access to Sustain Presence and Overcome Chinese Influence in the Indo-Pacific

NPS NRP Executive SummaryChinese control over ports in the Indo-Pacific region is increasingly viewed by the United States and its partners as a threat to their security interests. More specifically, analysts are inclined to see the Belt and Road Initiative as a vehicle for extending Chinese military influence. Until recently, it was difficult for the United States, let alone the U.S. Navy on its own, to compete directly with Chinese efforts to acquire access to ports and logistics facilities in the Indo-Pacific. Traditional tools of security cooperation and assistance were not designed to meet the type of challenge the BRI presents. However, in 2019 the United States established the Development Finance Corporation and joined with Australia and Japan to create the Blue Dot Network. These initiatives provide resources and official support for infrastructure development in lower income countries. This study aims to identify where, when, and how U.S. naval diplomacy can leverage these new initiatives to counter Chinese access and logistics facilities in the Indo-Pacific while enhancing USN access and logistics there.N3/N5 - Plans & StrategyThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report : Present-day tropospheric ozone distribution and trends relevant to vegetation

This Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) on the current state of knowledge of ozone metrics of relevance to vegetation (TOAR-Vegetation) reports on present-day global distribution of ozone at over 3300 vegetated sites and the long-term trends at nearly 1200 sites. TOAR-Vegetation focusses on three metrics over vegetation-relevant time-periods across major world climatic zones: M12, the mean ozone during 08:00–19:59; AOT40, the accumulation of hourly mean ozone values over 40 ppb during daylight hours, and W126 with stronger weighting to higher hourly mean values, accumulated during 08:00–19:59. Although the density of measurement stations is highly variable across regions, in general, the highest ozone values (mean, 2010–14) are in mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere, including southern USA, the Mediterranean basin, northern India, north, north-west and east China, the Republic of Korea and Japan. The lowest metric values reported are in Australia, New Zealand, southern parts of South America and some northern parts of Europe, Canada and the USA. Regional-scale assessments showed, for example, significantly higher AOT40 and W126 values in East Asia (EAS) than Europe (EUR) in wheat growing areas (p < 0.05), but not in rice growing areas. In NAM, the dominant trend during 1995–2014 was a significant decrease in ozone, whilst in EUR it was no change and in EAS it was a significant increase. TOAR-Vegetation provides recommendations to facilitate a more complete global assessment of ozone impacts on vegetation in the future, including: an increase in monitoring of ozone and collation of field evidence of the damaging effects on vegetation; an investigation of the effects on peri-urban agriculture and in mountain/upland areas; inclusion of additional pollutant, meteorological and inlet height data in the TOAR dataset; where not already in existence, establishing new region-specific thresholds for vegetation damage and an innovative integration of observations and modelling including stomatal uptake of the pollutant

Assessing atmospheric composition impacts using a chemical climatology framework: Case studies at the UK monitoring supersites

In the mid-1800s, monitoring networks were established to investigate atmospheric composition impacts, and the conditions giving rise to them. The development of these networks, in terms of coordination and standardisation between contributing sites, has resulted in large advances in knowledge of the nature of atmospheric composition. Currently thousands of sites collect high quality atmospheric composition measurements globally. This thesis contends that in order to maximise the information derived from these measurements, a further advancement in standardisation is required to encompass the interpretation of monitoring network data. Currently there are limited examples of a common interpretation of data applied across all sites in a monitoring network, especially in relation to specific atmospheric composition impacts. In this thesis, a ‘chemical climatology’ framework is outlined which provides a common basis for targeting analysis towards identifying the linkage between a specific atmospheric composition impact and its causal drivers. Case studies apply the chemical climatology framework to demonstrate its utility in deriving scientific and policy relevant conclusions using measurement data from the UK monitoring supersites located at Harwell and Auchencorth. Prior to this, the representativeness of each site is quantified through the application of cluster analysis to ozone data at 100 rural European sites to identify groupings of sites with similar ozone variation. Harwell was representative of rural locations within 120 km of London, while Auchencorth was representative of a larger, transboundary spatial domain including the remainder of the rural UK. The first case study links the impact of ozone on human health (quantified by SOMO10 and SOMO35 metrics) and vegetation (flux-based PODY) to meteorological and emissions drivers. Between 1990 and 2013 at Harwell, there was a significant decrease in the contribution of European ozone to determining the impacts. Improvement in the human health impact was heavily dependent on the choice of metric (SOMO35 decreased, no change in SOMO10), and the vegetation impacts had not improved as high ozone episodes frequently coincided with plant conditions which reduced ozone uptake. These chemical climates emphasise the need for ozone mitigation on larger (hemispheric) scales than currently implemented. Secondly, the impact of 27 measured VOCs on the extent of the regional ozone increment is assessed. The photochemical loss of VOCs is then linked to reported gridded VOC emissions using air mass back trajectory analysis. Ethene and m+p-xylene had the largest diurnal photochemical loss during maximum monthly regional ozone increment, but the key conclusion was the limitation introduced through the reporting of gridded VOC emissions in heavily aggregated source sectors. Finally, the conditions producing the long term health impact of particulate matter (quantified by annual average PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations) at each site are derived through integration of measurements of PM10 and PM2.5 with measurements of PM constituents. It is shown that the frequent, moderate PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations made a larger contribution to annual average values compared to the relatively infrequent high, episodic concentrations. The contribution of PM constituents and the contribution of local vs regional emissions to the range of PM concentrations is investigated. It was concluded that similar reductions in the contribution of secondary inorganic aerosol to the moderate PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations could be achieved from both the reduction of frequently traversed, smaller emissions sources, and less frequently traversed, larger emissions sources. The final chapter demonstrates the benefits from the extension of this framework to an entire monitoring network. It is envisioned that for each atmospheric composition impact, a standard set of statistics would be calculated which quantify the ‘impact’, ‘state’ and ‘drivers’ of that chemical climate. Calculation of ozone human health chemical climates across 100 European monitoring sites demonstrate this concept. This standardised interpretation of monitoring network data not only allows consistent comparison of an impact, but the common basis for determining how the impact is derived allows for the consideration of novel mitigation strategies and their spatial applicability

Chemical climatology: a case study for ozone

In 1872 Scottish chemist Robert Angus Smith established the basis of ‘chemical climatology’ explicitly designed to assess the human health impact of the ‘man-made climates’ in cities. Since then usage of chemical climatology has been sporadic. However with large volumes of atmospheric composition datasets available from campaign measurements, monitoring and modelling, as well as pollutant impact studies, an updated framework based on Angus Smith’s principles would be useful as a resource for both scientists and policy makers. Through analogy with the use of the term climate in other areas (e.g. meteorological or political) a modern chemical climatology framework is described, highlighting impact-focused principles. To derive the chemical climatology the impact of atmospheric composition is first identified (e.g. damage to human health) The impact is linked to the state of atmospheric composition in time and space (e.g. ozone concentrations in the UK 1990 -2010). Finally the drivers of the state are assessed (e.g. emissions, chemical background, chemical precursors, meteorology). Two chemical climates are presented: O3-human health and ozone-vegetation. The chemical climates are derived from measurements at the two UK European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) monitoring ‘supersites’: Auchencorth Moss and Harwell. The impacts of O3 on human health and on vegetation are assessed using the SOMO35 and AOT40 metrics respectively. Drivers of significant spatial variation in these impacts across the UK, and temporal changes at Harwell between 1990 and 2011 are discussed, as well as the relative importance of hemispheric, regional and local O3 chemical processing and its precursors. The individual site assessments are placed in regional context through the statistical evaluation of O3 variation across Europe. The chemical climatology framework allows integration of individual scientific studies focussing on specific processes within the impact-state and driver space into a synthesised and more general understanding. This approach provides opportunities for developing understanding of multiple impacts are considered for each chemical component allow identification of common drivers of impacts, and potentially holistically considered mitigation strategies

Measurement-based assessment of health burdens from long-term ozone exposure in the United States, Europe, and China

Long-term ozone (O3) exposure estimates from chemical transport models are frequently paired with exposure-response relationships from epidemiological studies to estimate associated health burdens. Impact estimates using such methods can include biases from model-derived exposure estimates. We use data solely from dense ground-based monitoring networks in the United States, Europe, and China for 2015 to estimate long-term O3 exposure and calculate premature respiratory mortality using exposure-response relationships derived from two separate analyses of the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study-II(ACS CPS-II) cohort. Using results from the larger, extended ACS CPS-II study, 34 000 (95% CI: 24, 44 thousand), 32 000 (95% CI: 22, 41 thousand), and 200 000 (95% CI: 140, 253 thousand) premature respiratory mortalities are attributable to long-term O3 exposure in the USA, Europe and China, respectively, in 2015. Results are approximately 32%–50% lower when using an older analysis of the ACS CPS-II cohort. Both sets of results are lower(∼20%–60%) on a region-byregion basis than analogous prior studies based solely on modeled O3, due in large part to the fact that the latter tends to be high biased in estimating exposure. This study highlights the utility of dense observation networks in estimating exposure to long-term O3 exposure and provides an observational constraint on subsequent health burdens for three regions of the world. In addition, these results demonstrate how small biases in modeled results of long-term O3 exposure can amplify estimated health impacts due to nonlinear exposure-response curves

VOC chemical climate and O3 variation: impact of emissions on regional O3 increment

Understanding the role of individual volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the formation of surface ozone is important for the effective targeting of ozone mitigation strategies. The UK operates two European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) monitoring ‘supersites’ where concurrent measurement of 27 VOCs, NOx and ozone allows the relationships between these precursors and ozone to be explored. This work presents the relative contribution of measured VOCs on ozone formation at the ‘supersites’, including spatial variation across the UK, and temporal changes between 1999 and 2012. The study was undertaken using the impact-centred chemical climatology framework (Malley et al 2014) VOC concentrations are made up from both regional and local emissions. Regional components of ozone concentrations are distinguished from hemispheric background ozone and measured ozone concentrations which show depletion due to the local NOx environment. Increased VOC photochemical cycling is observed during periods of regional ozone formation, and the contribution of individual VOCs to this total measured VOC cycling is discussed. The drivers of this photochemical depletion, such as meteorology and emissions are evaluated. Back trajectories are coupled with gridded VOC emission maps to estimate the exposure of trajectories to VOC emissions for the four days prior to their arrival at the receptor site. These emissions are disaggregated into 11 broad source sectors, and their contribution is evaluated. Finally the implications of the level of source disaggregation available are discussed in terms of its limitations on VOC emissions speciation to estimate the exposure of receptor sites to individual VOCs.. Using the SNAP sector and the NFR code sector data, it is demonstrated that a greater level of source sector disaggregation would be beneficial for atmospheric model studies and policy determination

Analysis of the distributions of hourly NO2 concentrations contributing to annual average NO2 concentrations across the European monitoring network between 2000 and 2014

Exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is associated with negative human health effects, both for short-term peak concentrations and from long-term exposure to a wider range of NO2 concentrations. For the latter, the European Union has established an air quality limit value of 40 µg m−3 as an annual average. However, factors such as proximity and strength of local emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorological conditions mean that there is substantial variation in the hourly NO2 concentrations contributing to an annual average concentration. The aim of this analysis was to quantify the nature of this variation at thousands of monitoring sites across Europe through the calculation of a standard set of chemical climatology statistics. Specifically, at each monitoring site that satisfied data capture criteria for inclusion in this analysis, annual NO2 concentrations, as well as the percentage contribution from each month, hour of the day, and hourly NO2 concentrations divided into 5 µg m−3 bins were calculated. Across Europe, 2010–2014 average annual NO2 concentrations (NO2AA) exceeded the annual NO2 limit value at 8 % of > 2500 monitoring sites. The application of this chemical climatology approach showed that sites with distinct monthly, hour of day, and hourly NO2 concentration bin contributions to NO2AA were not grouped into specific regions of Europe, furthermore, within relatively small geographic regions there were sites with similar NO2AA, but with differences in these contributions. Specifically, at sites with highest NO2AA, there were generally similar contributions from across the year, but there were also differences in the contribution of peak vs. moderate hourly NO2 concentrations to NO2AA, and from different hours across the day. Trends between 2000 and 2014 for 259 sites indicate that, in general, the contribution to NO2AA from winter months has increased, as has the contribution from the rush-hour periods of the day, while the contribution from peak hourly NO2 concentrations has decreased. The variety of monthly, hour of day and hourly NO2 concentration bin contributions to NO2AA, across cities, countries and regions of Europe indicate that within relatively small geographic areas different interactions between emissions, atmospheric chemistry and meteorology produce variation in NO2AA and the conditions that produce it. Therefore, measures implemented to reduce NO2AA in one location may not be as effective in others. The development of strategies to reduce NO2AA for an area should therefore consider (i) the variation in monthly, hour of day, and hourly NO2 concentration bin contributions to NO2AA within that area; and (ii) how specific mitigation actions will affect variability in hourly NO2 concentrations

Trends and drivers of ozone human health and vegetation impact metrics from UK EMEP supersite measurements (1990–2013)

Analyses have been undertaken of the spatial and temporal trends and drivers of the distributions of ground-level O3 concentrations associated with potential impacts on human health and vegetation using measurements at the two UK European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) supersites of Harwell and Auchencorth. These two sites provide representation of rural O3 over the wider geographic areas of south-east England and northern UK respectively. The O3 exposures associated with health and vegetation impacts were quantified respectively by the SOMO10 and SOMO35 metrics and by the flux-based PODY metrics for wheat, potato, beech and Scots pine. Statistical analyses of measured O3 and NOx concentrations were supplemented by analyses of meteorological data and NOx emissions along air-mass back trajectories. The findings highlight the differing responses of impact metrics to the decreasing contribution of regional O3 episodes in determining O3 concentrations at Harwell between 1990 and 2013, associated with European NOx emission reductions. An improvement in human health-relevant O3 exposure observed when calculated by SOMO35, which decreased significantly, was not observed when quantified by SOMO10. The decrease in SOMO35 is driven by decreases in regionally produced O3 which makes a larger contribution to SOMO35 than to SOMO10. For the O3 vegetation impacts at Harwell, no significant trend was observed for the PODY metrics of the four species, in contrast to the decreasing trend in vegetation-relevant O3 exposure perceived when calculated using the crop AOT40 metric. The decreases in regional O3 production have not decreased PODY as climatic and plant conditions reduced stomatal conductance and uptake of O3 during regional O3 production. Ozone concentrations at Auchencorth (2007–2013) were more influenced by hemispheric background concentrations than at Harwell. For health-related O3 exposures this resulted in lower SOMO35 but similar SOMO10 compared with Harwell; for vegetation PODY values, this resulted in greater impacts at Auchencorth for vegetation types with lower exceedance ("Y") thresholds and longer growing seasons (i.e. beech and Scots pine). Additionally, during periods influenced by regional O3 production, a greater prevalence of plant conditions which enhance O3 uptake (such as higher soil water potential) at Auchencorth compared to Harwell resulted in exacerbation of vegetation impacts at Auchencorth, despite being further from O3 precursor emission sources. These analyses indicate that quantifications of future improvement in health-relevant O3 exposure achievable from pan-European O3 mitigation strategies are highly dependent on the choice of O3 concentration cut-off threshold, and reduction in potential health impact associated with more modest O3 concentrations requires reductions in O3 precursors on a larger (hemispheric) spatial scale. Additionally, while further reduction in regional O3 is more likely to decrease O3 vegetation impacts within the spatial domain of Auchencorth compared to Harwell, larger reductions in vegetation impact could be achieved across the UK from reduction of hemispheric background O3 concentrations

Distinct Effects on Diversifying Selection by Two Mechanisms of Immunity Against Streptococcus pneumoniae

Antigenic variation to evade host immunity has long been assumed to be a driving force of diversifying selection in pathogens. Colonization by Streptococcus pneumoniae, which is central to the organism's transmission and therefore evolution, is limited by two arms of the immune system: antibody- and T cell- mediated immunity. In particular, the effector activity of CD4+ TH17 cell mediated immunity has been shown to act in trans, clearing co-colonizing pneumococci that do not bear the relevant antigen. It is thus unclear whether TH17 cell immunity allows benefit of antigenic variation and contributes to diversifying selection. Here we show that antigen-specific CD4+ TH17 cell immunity almost equally reduces colonization by both an antigen-positive strain and a co-colonized, antigen-negative strain in a mouse model of pneumococcal carriage, thus potentially minimizing the advantage of escape from this type of immunity. Using a proteomic screening approach, we identified a list of candidate human CD4+ TH17 cell antigens. Using this list and a previously published list of pneumococcal Antibody antigens, we bioinformatically assessed the signals of diversifying selection among the identified antigens compared to non-antigens. We found that Antibody antigen genes were significantly more likely to be under diversifying selection than the TH17 cell antigen genes, which were indistinguishable from non-antigens. Within the Antibody antigens, epitopes recognized by human antibodies showed stronger evidence of diversifying selection. Taken together, the data suggest that TH17 cell-mediated immunity, one form of T cell immunity that is important to limit carriage of antigen-positive pneumococcus, favors little diversifying selection in the targeted antigen. The results could provide new insight into pneumococcal vaccine design