35,726 research outputs found
A Computational Theory of Subjective Probability
In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied
to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model
of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their
beliefs. We argue that classical probability cannot be applied in such cases,
and that subjective probability must instead be used. In Experiment 1 we show
that, when judging the probability of lottery number sequences, people apply
subjective rather than classical probability. In Experiment 2 we examine the
conjunction fallacy and demonstrate that the materials used by Tversky and
Kahneman (1983) involve model uncertainty. We then provide a formal
mathematical proof that, for every uncertain model, there exists a conjunction
of outcomes which is more subjectively probable than either of its constituents
in isolation.Comment: Maguire, P., Moser, P. Maguire, R. & Keane, M.T. (2013) "A
computational theory of subjective probability." In M. Knauff, M. Pauen, N.
Sebanz, & I. Wachsmuth (Eds.), Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of
the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 960-965). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science
Societ
Is Consciousness Computable? Quantifying Integrated Information Using Algorithmic Information Theory
In this article we review Tononi's (2008) theory of consciousness as
integrated information. We argue that previous formalizations of integrated
information (e.g. Griffith, 2014) depend on information loss. Since lossy
integration would necessitate continuous damage to existing memories, we
propose it is more natural to frame consciousness as a lossless integrative
process and provide a formalization of this idea using algorithmic information
theory. We prove that complete lossless integration requires noncomputable
functions. This result implies that if unitary consciousness exists, it cannot
be modelled computationally.Comment: Maguire, P., Moser, P., Maguire, R. & Griffith, V. (2014). Is
consciousness computable? Quantifying integrated information using
algorithmic information theory. In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B.
Scassellati (Eds.), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Conference of the
Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Societ
Learning and teaching projects 2013/14 – final report : accounting for numeracy
The overall aim of this project was to look at how to improve numeracy skills in students at the University of Bedfordshire. It focused on the diagnostic testing of students at levels 4, 5 and 6 and suitable interventions to improve skills that could be built into the curriculum. It also considered how maths is taught in schools to seek to understand more about why some students have poor scores in their tests so interventions can be more targeted at HE level
Surviving, and Maybe Thriving, on Vouchers
The Workforce Investment Act (WIA), the new law restructuring the nation's workforce development system, marks a significant change for job seekers and the practitioners who serve them. Under WIA, eligible job seekers will be issued Individual Training Accounts (ITAs), or vouchers, that can be used to enter training programs from a state-approved list. Whether vouchers will meet the goal of improving the quality of training will not be known for some time. However, the impact on organizations that serve job seekers will be immediate. Surviving, and Maybe Thriving, on Vouchers offers workforce development practitioners critical lessons about how they can adapt to this new environment, based on the experiences of organizations in jurisdictions that are already relying on vouchers
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State and Local Government Debt: An Analysis
[Excerpt] This report first provides a broad overview of state and local government finances and how these governments incorporate borrowing into their budgets. The second section reports data on state and local government debt and how that debt has changed over time. This section includes a comparative analysis of these debt parameters for each state. The third section discusses different economic perspectives on the use of debt by governments and if governments are intrinsically biased toward borrowing more than is considered economically optimal. The discussion provides background for Congress as it deliberates potential changes in the oversight of the primary and secondary markets for state and local government debt.
Issues related to state and local government finances, such as government pensions and health benefits, are also addressed. This report will be updated as legislative events warrant
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