The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

FDG uptake by prosthetic arterial grafts in large vessel vasculitis Is not specific for active disease

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the incidence and clinical significance of arterial graft-associated uptake of fluorodeoxyglucose in large-vessel vasculitis (LVV). BACKGROUND: The role of (18)F-labeled fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography/computed tomography ([(18)F]FDG-PET/CT) in the management of LVV remains to be defined. Although [(18)F]FDG uptake at arterial graft sites raises concerns regarding active arteritis or infection, its clinical significance in LVV has never been formally studied. METHODS: An observational prospective study sought to identify patients with Takayasu arteritis (TA) undergoing [(18)F]FDG-PET/CT more than 6 months after graft surgery from a large cohort of patients from 2 tertiary referral centers. [(18)F]FDG uptake by the graft and native arteries was scored on a scale of 0 to 3 relative to hepatic uptake, and periprosthetic maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) was calculated. Periprosthetic [(18)F]FDG uptake in active disease was compared with that in inactive disease, and arterial progression was assessed by prospective magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). RESULTS: Twenty-six subjects with TA were enrolled. All were afebrile with negative blood culture. Periprosthetic uptake was significant in 23 of 26 patients, and the mean SUVmax was 4.21 ± 1.46. Median periprosthetic [(18)F]FDG uptake score (3; interquartile range [IQR]: 3 to 3) was higher than in native aorta (1; IQR: 0 to 1; p < 0.001). Graft-specific [(18)F]FDG uptake was unrelated to disease activity. Despite the high frequency of graft-associated [(18)F]FDG uptake, sequential MRAs did not reveal arterial progression in 25 of 26 patients; the 1 remaining case showed minor progression limited to native arteries. Nine patients underwent repeated PET/CT scanning without showing changes in graft-specific uptake, despite increased treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Significant [(18)F]FDG uptake that is confined to arterial graft sites in patients with LVV does not reflect clinically relevant disease activity or progression. To minimize exposure to immunosuppression and in the face of negative blood culture, clinically quiescent arteritis, normal or stably raised C-reactive protein levels, we elected not to escalate treatment and monitor progression with MRA

Measurement of D-s(+) and D-s(*+) production in B meson decays and from continuum e(+)e(-) annihilation at √s=10.6 GeV

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APSNew measurements of Ds+ and Ds*+ meson production rates from B decays and from qq̅ continuum events near the Υ(4S) resonance are presented. Using 20.8 fb-1 of data on the Υ(4S) resonance and 2.6 fb-1 off-resonance, we find the inclusive branching fractions B(B⃗Ds+X)=(10.93±0.19±0.58±2.73)% and B(B⃗Ds*+X)=(7.9±0.8±0.7±2.0)%, where the first error is statistical, the second is systematic, and the third is due to the Ds+→φπ+ branching fraction uncertainty. The production cross sections σ(e+e-→Ds+X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=7.55±0.20±0.34pb and σ(e+e-→Ds*±X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=5.8±0.7±0.5pb are measured at center-of-mass energies about 40 MeV below the Υ(4S) mass. The branching fractions ΣB(B⃗Ds(*)+D(*))=(5.07±0.14±0.30±1.27)% and ΣB(B⃗Ds*+D(*))=(4.1±0.2±0.4±1.0)% are determined from the Ds(*)+ momentum spectra. The mass difference m(Ds+)-m(D+)=98.4±0.1±0.3MeV/c2 is also measured.This work was supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Swiss NSF, A. P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Efficacy and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic evaluation of the Aurora kinase A inhibitor MLN8237 against preclinical models of pediatric cancer

To gain a greater understanding of the potential of the Aurora kinase A inhibitor MLN8237 in the treatment of pediatric malignancies. The activity of MLN8237 was evaluated against 28 neuroblastoma and Ewing sarcoma cell lines, and its in vivo efficacy was studied over a range of doses against 12 pediatric tumor xenograft models. Pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic, and genomic studies were undertaken. In vitro neuroblastoma cell lines were generally more sensitive to MLN8237 than Ewing sarcoma lines. MLN8237 demonstrated significant activity in vivo against solid tumor models at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD); however, only 2 of 6 neuroblastoma models had objective responses at 0.25MTD. In contrast, MLN8237 induced objective responses at its MTD and at 0.5MTD in three ALL models and in two out of three at 0.25MTD. Pharmacokinetic studies at 0.5MTD demonstrated a T (max) of 0.5 h, C (max) of 24.8 mu M, AUC((0-24)) of 60.3 mu M h, and 12 h trough level of 1.2 mu M. Mitotic indices increased 6-12 h after MLN8237 administration. AURKA copy number variation was frequent in xenografts, and expression was highly correlated with copy number. Objective responses were more frequent in tumors with decreased AURKA copy number (5/8) compared to those with increased gene copy number (2/14). This report confirms the significant activity against both solid tumor and ALL xenografts at the MTD, with a steep dose response. These data support clinical development of MLN8237 in childhood cancer. Because of the steep dose-response relationship, such studies should target achieving trough levels of 1 mu M or higher for sustained periods of treatment

Long-Term Outcomes in Percutaneous Radiofrequency Ablation for Histologically Proven Colorectal Lung Metastasis

Introduction To evaluate the long-term outcome of image-guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) when treating histologically confirmed colorectal lung metastasis in terms of overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and local tumour control (LTC). Materials and Methods Retrospective single-centre study. Consecutive RFA treatments of histologically proven lung colorectal metastases between 01/01/2008 and 31/12/14. The primary outcome was patient survival (OS and PFS). Secondary outcomes were local tumour progression (LTP) and complications. Prognostic factors associated with OS/ PFS were determined by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results Sixty patients (39 males: 21 females; median age 69 years) and 125 colorectal lung metastases were treated. Eighty percent (n = 48) also underwent lung surgery for lung metastases. Mean metastasis size (cm) was 1.4 ± 0.6 (range 0.3–4.0). Median number of RFA sessions was 1 (1–4). During follow-up (median 45.5 months), 45 patients died (75%). The estimated OS and PFS survival rates at 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 years were 96.7%, 74.7%, 44.1%, 27.5%, 16.3% (median OS, 52 months) and 66.7%, 31.2%, 25.9%, 21.2% and 5.9% (median PFS, 19 months). The LTC rate was 90% with 6 patients developing LTP with 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-year LTP rates of 3.3%, 8.3%, 10.0% and 10.0%. Progression-free interval < 1 year (P = 0.002, HR = 0.375) and total number of pulmonary metastases (≥ 3) treated (P = 0.037, HR = 0.480) were independent negative prognostic factors. Thirty-day mortality rate was 0% with no intra-procedural deaths. Conclusion The long-term OS and PFS following RFA for the treatment of histologically confirmed colorectal lung metastases demonstrate comparable oncological durability to surgery

Toll-like receptor 4 and high-mobility group box-1 are involved in ictogenesis and can be targeted to reduce seizures

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Absence of pathogenic mitochondrial DNA mutations in mouse brain tumors

BACKGROUND: Somatic mutations in the mitochondrial genome occur in numerous tumor types including brain tumors. These mutations are generally found in the hypervariable regions I and II of the displacement loop and unlikely alter mitochondrial function. Two hypervariable regions of mononucleotide repeats occur in the mouse mitochondrial genome, i.e., the origin of replication of the light strand (O(L)) and the Arg tRNA. METHODS: In this study we examined the entire mitochondrial genome in a series of chemically induced brain tumors in the C57BL/6J strain and spontaneous brain tumors in the VM mouse strain. The tumor mtDNA was compared to that of mtDNA in brain mitochondrial populations from the corresponding syngeneic mouse host strain. RESULTS: Direct sequencing revealed a few homoplasmic base pair insertions, deletions, and substitutions in the tumor cells mainly in regions of mononucleotide repeats. A heteroplasmic mutation in the 16srRNA gene was detected in a spontaneous metastatic VM brain tumor. CONCLUSION: None of the mutations were considered pathogenic, indicating that mtDNA somatic mutations do not likely contribute to the initiation or progression of these diverse mouse brain tumors

BPR1K653, a Novel Aurora Kinase Inhibitor, Exhibits Potent Anti-Proliferative Activity in MDR1 (P-gp170)-Mediated Multidrug-Resistant Cancer Cells

Over-expression of Aurora kinases promotes the tumorigenesis of cells. The aim of this study was to determine the preclinical profile of a novel pan-Aurora kinase inhibitor, BPR1K653, as a candidate for anti-cancer therapy. Since expression of the drug efflux pump, MDR1, reduces the effectiveness of various chemotherapeutic compounds in human cancers, this study also aimed to determine whether the potency of BPR1K653 could be affected by the expression of MDR1 in cancer cells.BPR1K653 specifically inhibited the activity of Aurora-A and Aurora-B kinase at low nano-molar concentrations in vitro. Anti-proliferative activity of BPR1K653 was evaluated in various human cancer cell lines. Results of the clonogenic assay showed that BPR1K653 was potent in targeting a variety of cancer cell lines regardless of the tissue origin, p53 status, or expression of MDR1. At the cellular level, BPR1K653 induced endo-replication and subsequent apoptosis in both MDR1-negative and MDR1-positive cancer cells. Importantly, it showed potent activity against the growth of xenograft tumors of the human cervical carcinoma KB and KB-derived MDR1-positive KB-VIN10 cells in nude mice. Finally, BPR1K653 also exhibited favorable pharmacokinetic properties in rats.BPR1K653 is a novel potent anti-cancer compound, and its potency is not affected by the expression of the multiple drug resistant protein, MDR1, in cancer cells. Therefore, BPR1K653 is a promising anti-cancer compound that has potential for the management of various malignancies, particularly for patients with MDR1-related drug resistance after prolonged chemotherapeutic treatments