Robust weighted aggregation of expert opinions in futures studies

Expert judgments are widespread in many fields, and the way in which they are collected and the procedure by which they are aggregated are considered crucial steps. From a statistical perspective, expert judgments are subjective data and must be gathered and treated as carefully and scientifically as possible. In the elicitation phase, a multitude of experts is preferable to a single expert, and techniques based on anonymity and iterations, such as Delphi, offer many advantages in terms of reducing distortions, which are mainly related to cognitive biases. There are two approaches to the aggregation of the judgments given by a panel of experts, referred to as behavioural (implying an interaction between the experts) and mathematical (involving non-interacting participants and the aggregation of the judgments using a mathematical formula). Both have advantages and disadvantages, and with the mathematical approach, the main problem concerns the subjective choice of an appropriate formula for both normalization and aggregation. We propose a new method for aggregating and processing subjective data collected using the Delphi method, with the aim of obtaining robust rankings of the outputs. This method makes it possible to normalize and aggregate the opinions of a panel of experts, while modelling different sources of uncertainty. We use an uncertainty analysis approach that allows the contemporaneous use of different aggregation and normalization functions, so that the result does not depend on the choice of a specific mathematical formula, thereby solving the problem of choice. Furthermore, we can also model the uncertainty related to the weighting system, which reflects the different expertise of the participants as well as expert opinion accuracy. By combining the Delphi method with the robust ranking procedure, we offer a new protocol covering the elicitation, the aggregation and the processing of subjective data used in the construction of Delphi-based future scenarios. The method is very flexible and can be applied to the aggregation and processing of any subjective judgments, i.e. also those outside the context of futures studies. Finally, we show the validity, reproducibility and potential of the method through its application with regard to the future of Italian families

A covariant and gauge invariant formulation of the cosmological "backreaction"

Using our recent proposal for defining gauge invariant averages we give a general-covariant formulation of the so-called cosmological "backreaction". Our effective covariant equations allow us to describe in explicitly gauge invariant form the way classical or quantum inhomogeneities affect the average evolution of our Universe.Comment: 12 pages, no figures. Typos corrected, matches version to appear in JCA

Light-cone averaging in cosmology: formalism and applications

We present a general gauge invariant formalism for defining cosmological averages that are relevant for observations based on light-like signals. Such averages involve either null hypersurfaces corresponding to a family of past light-cones or compact surfaces given by their intersection with timelike hypersurfaces. Generalized Buchert-Ehlers commutation rules for derivatives of these light-cone averages are given. After introducing some adapted "geodesic light-cone" coordinates, we give explicit expressions for averaging the redshift to luminosity-distance relation and the so-called "redshift drift" in a generic inhomogeneous Universe.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figures. Comments and references added, typos corrected. Version accepted for publication in JCA

Backreaction on the luminosity-redshift relation from gauge invariant light-cone averaging

Using a recently proposed gauge invariant formulation of light-cone averaging, together with adapted "geodesic light-cone" coordinates, we show how an "induced backreaction" effect emerges, in general, from correlated fluctuations in the luminosity distance and covariant integration measure. Considering a realistic stochastic spectrum of inhomogeneities of primordial (inflationary) origin we find that both the induced backreaction on the luminosity-redshift relation and the dispersion are larger than naively expected. On the other hand the former, at least to leading order and in the linear perturbative regime, cannot account by itself for the observed effects of dark energy at large-redshifts. A full second-order calculation, or even better a reliable estimate of contributions from the non-linear regime, appears to be necessary before firm conclusions on the correct interpretation of the data can be drawn.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures. Comments and references added, Fig. 1 modified. Version accepted for publication in JCA

Weighted cue integration in the rodent head direction system

How the brain combines information from different sensory modalities and of differing reliability is an important and still-unanswered question. Using the head direction (HD) system as a model, we explored the resolution of conflicts between landmarks and background cues. Sensory cue integration models predict averaging of the two cues, whereas attractor models predict capture of the signal by the dominant cue. We found that a visual landmark mostly captured the HD signal at low conflicts: however, there was an increasing propensity for the cells to integrate the cues thereafter. A large conflict presented to naive rats resulted in greater visual cue capture (less integration) than in experienced rats, revealing an effect of experience. We propose that weighted cue integration in HD cells arises from dynamic plasticity of the feed-forward inputs to the network, causing within-trial spatial redistribution of the visual inputs onto the ring. This suggests that an attractor network can implement decision processes about cue reliability using simple architecture and learning rules, thus providing a potential neural substrate for weighted cue integration

Weighted cue integration in the rodent head direction system.

How the brain combines information from different sensory modalities and of differing reliability is an important and still-unanswered question. Using the head direction (HD) system as a model, we explored the resolution of conflicts between landmarks and background cues. Sensory cue integration models predict averaging of the two cues, whereas attractor models predict capture of the signal by the dominant cue. We found that a visual landmark mostly captured the HD signal at low conflicts: however, there was an increasing propensity for the cells to integrate the cues thereafter. A large conflict presented to naive rats resulted in greater visual cue capture (less integration) than in experienced rats, revealing an effect of experience. We propose that weighted cue integration in HD cells arises from dynamic plasticity of the feed-forward inputs to the network, causing within-trial spatial redistribution of the visual inputs onto the ring. This suggests that an attractor network can implement decision processes about cue reliability using simple architecture and learning rules, thus providing a potential neural substrate for weighted cue integration

Global gravitational instability of FLRW backgrounds - interpreting the dark sectors

The standard model of cosmology is based on homogeneous-isotropic solutions of Einstein's equations. These solutions are known to be gravitationally unstable to local inhomogeneous perturbations, commonly described as evolving on a background given by the same solutions. In this picture, the FLRW backgrounds are taken to describe the average over inhomogeneous perturbations for all times. We study in the present article the (in)stability of FLRW dust backgrounds within a class of averaged inhomogeneous cosmologies. We examine the phase portraits of the latter, discuss their fixed points and orbital structure and provide detailed illustrations. We show that FLRW cosmologies are unstable in some relevant cases: averaged models are driven away from them through structure formation and accelerated expansion. We find support for the proposal that the dark components of the FLRW framework may be associated to these instability sectors. Our conclusion is that FLRW cosmologies have to be considered critically as for their role to serve as reliable models for the physical background.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figures, 1 table. Matches published version in CQ

Gauge invariant averages for the cosmological backreaction

We show how to provide suitable gauge invariant prescriptions for the classical spatial averages (resp. quantum expectation values) that are needed in the evaluation of classical (resp. quantum) backreaction effects. We also present examples illustrating how the use of gauge invariant prescriptions can avoid interpretation problems and prevent misleading conclusions.Comment: 21 pages, no figures. Comments and references added, typos corrected. Small corrections and reference added, matches version published in JCA

The Genome-wide impact of Nipblb loss-of-function on Zebrafish gene expression

Transcriptional changes normally occur during development but also underlie differences between healthy and pathological conditions. Transcription factors or chromatin modifiers are involved in orchestrating gene activity, such as the cohesin genes and their regulator NIPBL. In our previous studies, using a zebrafish model for nipblb knockdown, we described the effect of nipblb loss-of-function in specific contexts, such as central nervous system development and hematopoiesis. However, the genome-wide transcriptional impact of nipblb loss-of-function in zebrafish embryos at diverse developmental stages remains under investigation. By RNA-seq analyses in zebrafish embryos at 24 h post-fertilization, we examined genome-wide effects of nipblb knockdown on transcriptional programs. Differential gene expression analysis revealed that nipblb loss-of-function has an impact on gene expression at 24 h post fertilization, mainly resulting in gene inactivation. A similar transcriptional effect has also been reported in other organisms, supporting the use of zebrafish as a model to understand the role of Nipbl in gene regulation during early vertebrate development. Moreover, we unraveled a connection between nipblb-dependent differential expression and gene expression patterns of hematological cell populations and AML subtypes, enforcing our previous evidence on the involvement of NIPBL-related transcriptional dysregulation in hematological malignancies