Impact Assessment of European Structural Funds in Andalusia - a CGE Approach

In this work we carry out an impact analysis of the European Structural Funds (ESF) to the object of assessing their effect on the GDP, the level of prices or the consumers’ income on the region of Andalusia in the south of Spain. Accordingly, we present an Applied General Equilibrium Model (AGEM_A) and we compare the reception scenario of regional funds with a hypothetical situation where this financial support has been removed. The AGEM_A has been built by supplementing the statistical information provided by the Social Accounting Matrices for Andalusia corresponding to 1990, 1995 and 1999, with the data included in the three Community Support Frameworks (CSF) approved by the European Commission.

VALIDATING POLICY INDUCED ECONOMIC CHANGE USING SEQUENTIAL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM SAMs

This paper explores the capacity of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to track down policy induced economic changes and their ability to generate contrastable data for an economy. Starting from an empirically built regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), a first stage CGE calibrated model is constructed. The model is then perturbed with a set of policy shocks related to European Union Structural Funds 2000-2005 invested into the region of Andalusia in the south of Spain. The counterfactual equilibrium is translated into a virtual SAM, conformal with the initial one, which is in turn reused to calibrate the next stage in the CGE modeling. And so on until the last stage is reached and all European funds yearly invested have been absorbed by the economy. Since at the end of the process another empirical SAM is available, it can be compared with the terminally produced virtual SAM. The comparison shows the sequence of SAMs to provide a very good fit to the actual data in the empirical SAM. Regional GDP and unemployment rates are two examples of the close approximation. With this novel approach we evaluate, from the methodological viewpoint, the projection capabilities of CGE modeling and at the same time we provide an empirical assessment of the said European policies.Social accounting matrices, applied general equilibrium, impact analysis, European regional policy.

A price model to assess the inflationary effects of the European Regional Policy

Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) are databases that complete the information provided by the input-output tables. They study the intersectorial relationships of an economy, the behaviour of consumers, the government or the foreign sector, while being able to close the income flow of rent. In this work, we deal with the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) in Andalusia, a Spanish region classified as Objective 1 by the European Regional policy. We apply the Leontief model on the SAMs for 1990, 1995 and 1999 to get the gross output fall when we remove these regional funds. Furthermore, we develop a price model to assess the impact of this financial support on aggregate and sectorial prices.Social Accounting Matrix, Regional Accounting, Structural Analysis.

Impact Assessment of European Structural Funds in Andalusia - a CGE Approach

In this work we carry out an impact analysis of the European Structural Funds (ESF) to the object of assessing their effect on the GDP, the level of prices or the consumers' income on the region of Andalusia in the south of Spain. Accordingly, we present an Applied General Equilibrium Model (AGEM_A) and we compare the reception scenario of regional funds with a hypothetical situation where this financial support has been removed. The AGEM_A has been built by supplementing the statistical information provided by the Social Accounting Matrices for Andalusia corresponding to 1990, 1995 and 1999, with the data included in the three Community Support Frameworks (CSF) approved by the European Commission

Structural Path Analysis: Applications to Structural Changes in the Andalusian economy (1990-1999)

Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) are an useful tool that enables to get extenser information than Input-Output analysis as far as they work not only with an economy´s intersectorial relations, but also with consumers' behaviour, government or foreign sector; reflecting the income flow of rent. In this paper, we use Social Accounting Matrices for Andalusia for years 1990, 1995 y 1999, that we got from previous works. With this information we use "path analysis" technique to obtain the main changes in the productive structure and demand in Andalusia for the last ten years. Those changes will be represented in a three-dimensional picture. We also want to know which are the sectors that have strongly contributed to regional economic growth. Finally we measure the influence of sectorial shocks on themselves and also on the other sectors of this regional economy. Keywords: social accounting matrix, regional accounting, structural analysis. JEL: C67, D57, R15.

Multiplier decomposition within Regional SAMs: the case of Andalusia

In this work we present a methodology of multipliers decomposition (including an employment multiplier), for a regional economy as Andalusia using Social Accounting Matrices (SAM). These matrices are able to enlarge the information provided by the input-output analysis, because they complete the interindustrial flows of an economy with the behaviour of productive factors, consumers, public sector and foreign sector. This database allows us to capture conclusions about intersectoral dependences in a region in a double sense: firstly, from a partial perspective based on the results derived for every year, and secondly from an structural point of view along the decade of the nineties. Keywords: social accounting matrix, regional accounting, structural analysis. JEL classification: C67, D57, R15

Using a CGE Model to Identify the Policy Trade-Off between Unemployment and Inflation: The Efficient Phillips Curve

This paper provides a new reading of a classical economic relation: the short-run Phillips curve. Our point is that, when dealing with inflation and unemployment, policy-making can be understood as a multicriteria decisionmaking problem. Hence, we use so-called multiobjective programming in connection with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to determine the combinations of policy instruments that provide efficient combinations of inflation and unemployment. This approach results in an alternative version of the Phillips curve labelled as efficient Phillips curve. Our aim is to present an application of CGE models to a new area of research that can be especially useful when addressing policy exercises with real data. We apply our methodological proposal within a particular regional economy, Andalusia, in the south of Spain. This tool can give some keys for policy advice and policy implementation in the fight against unemployment and inflation

Are there key sectors? : an appraisal using applied general equilibrium

An extension of the hypothetical extraction method to a general equilibrium setting is considered. This has the advantage of re-interpreting output changes as efficiency gains or losses, which may be of use in identifying "key" sectors in an interconnected economy. The categorization may be relevant for the evaluation of intersectoral synergies and for improving policy planning and orienting economic strategy. We argue that the standard measures based on gross outputs may not capture all of the relevant impacts and this is so because of some self-imposed modeling and accounting limitations. An economy-wide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach provides a modeling platform that overcomes these limitations since it offers (i) a more comprehensive measure of linkages and (ii) an alternative way of accounting for linkages' relevance that is in closer accordance with the standard statistical magnitudes used in national or regional accounts

Structural Path Analysis: Applications to Structural Changes in the Andalusian economy (1990-1999)

Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) are an useful tool that enables to get extenser information than Input-Output analysis as far as they work not only with an economy's intersectorial relations, but also with consumers' behaviour, government or foreign sector; reflecting the income flow of rent. In this paper, we use Social Accounting Matrices for Andalusia for years 1990, 1995 y 1999, that we got from previous works. With this information we use "path analysis" technique to obtain the main changes in the productive structure and demand in Andalusia for the last ten years. Those changes will be represented in a three-dimensional picture. We also want to know which are the sectors that have strongly contributed to regional economic growth. Finally we measure the influence of sectorial shocks on themselves and also on the other sectors of this regional economy. Keywords: social accounting matrix, regional accounting, structural analysis. JEL: C67, D57, R15

Rural-urban social accounting matrixes for modelling the impact of rural development policies in the EU

This report complements previous work and builds NUTS3 SAMs for twelve regions, following a careful approach, that we call the expert approach. This report investigates the results of this approach by running some simple policy simulations and providing the structural descriptions of these regions. Further, this report aims at producing testing a more automatic approach to the construction of NUTS3 SAMs, to a view of reducing the necessary time and data requirements. Using several examples, this report examines whether such automatic approach can provide reliable SAMs at NUTS3 level. It finally draws conclusions as to the usefulness of both approaches in providing tools for further policy analysis in the field of rural development policy analysisJRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom