Central Bank Reputation in a Forward-Looking Model.

This paper examines whether reputation concerns can induce the central bank to implement the time-inconsistent optimal monetary policy in a standard New Keynesian model. The forward-looking nature of this model is in this respect interesting on two accounts: first, it worsens the time-inconsistency problem of optimal monetary policy by adding a stabilization bias to the possible inflation bias; second, it enables us to model more satisfactorily the reputation of the central bank by accounting for the coordination of the private agents on the punishment length. Our results suggest that the inflation bias and the stabilization bias can be overcome for the calibrations used in the literature. These results enable us to endogenize Woodford's timeless perspective and weaken the case for monetary policy delegation.Commitment ; Discretion ; Inflation bias ; Reputation ; Stabilization bias ; Timeless perspective.

Bubble-free interest-rate rules.

This paper designs, for a broad class of rational-expectations dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium models, interest-rate rules which not only ensure the local determinacy of the targeted equilibrium within the neighbourhood of the targeted steady state, but also prevent the economy from gradually leaving this neighbourhood. We show that in most models these interest-rate rules are necessarily forward-looking (i.e. make necessarily the interest rate conditional on the private agents' expectations), while in all models non-forward-looking interest-rate rules exist which ensure only the local determinacy of the targeted equilibrium. We also discuss the robustness of the effectiveness of these rules to departures from various assumptions and show in particular that they can still be effective when the central bank has imperfect knowledge of the model's structural parameters. We finally argue that such rules could also serve as a useful guide in the reflections on the best monetary policy reaction to perceived asset-price bubbles or exchange-rate misalignments.DSGE models ; Interest-rate rules ; Local determinacy ; Global determinacy ; Rational bubbles

To be or not to be in monetary union: A synthesis

Monetary union can benefit countries suffering from policy credibility problems if it eliminates the inflation bias and also allows for more efficient management of certain shocks. But it also carries costs as some stabilization may be feasible even in the absence of credibility, and this may be more than what an individual country can hope for in a monetary union. In this paper, we combine the stabilization and credibility branches of the currency union literature and construct a simple welfare criterion that can be used to evaluate alternative monetary arrangements. We produce examples where monetary union may be welfare improving even for low-modest levels of inflation bias (2-3%) as long as business cycles are not too a-synchronized across countries.Currency union, credibility, stabilization, inflation bias.

Financial Shocks and Optimal Policy

This paper incorporates banks as well as frictions in the market for bank capital into a standard New Keynesian model and considers the positive and normative implications of various financial shocks. It shows that the frictions matter significantly for the effects of the shocks and the properties of optimal monetary and fiscal policy. For instance, for shocks that increase banks' demand for liquidity, optimal monetary policy accepts an output contraction while it would not in the absence of the frictions (or under suitably conducted fiscal policy). We find that optimal monetary policy can be approximated by a simple interest-rate rule targeting inflation; and it also allows large adjustments in the money supply, a property reminiscent of Poole's analysis.Financial frictions, banking, optimal policy

L’élaboration de la politique monétaire dans la zone euro et aux États-Unis.

La table ronde d’un colloque co-organisé par la Banque de France a porté sur les similitudes et les différences entre la Banque centrale européenne et le Système fédéral de réserve en termes de réactivité, d’objectifs et de stratégie de politique monétaire.Banque centrale européenne, Système fédéral de réserve, inertie de la politique monétaire, objectifs de politique monétaire, stratégie de politique monétaire.

La crédibilité de la politique monétaire dans une perspective néo-keynésienne.

Le cadre de référence, dit « néo-keynésien », met en relief le rôle des anticipations dans la transmission de la politique monétaire. L’article présente les principaux problèmes de crédibilité susceptibles de se poser, illustrés par l’expérience de diverses banques centrales.crédibilité de la politique monétaire, anticipations des agents privés, modèle néo-keynésien, biais d’inflation, biais de stabilisation, anticipations auto-réalisatrices.

The future of monetary policy Summary of the conference held in Rome on 30 September and 1 October 2010.

The recent economic and financial crisis does not call for a change in monetary policy strategy, but rather better integration of financial conditions and financial-crisis risks in the implementation of this strategy: this appears to be the main conclusion of a conference organised by the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia and the Einaudi Institute.asset price bubbles, financial crisis, interbank market, macroprudential policy, monetary policy.

Le futur de la politique monétaire : synthèse de la conférence tenue à Rome le 30 septembre et le 1er octobre 2010.

La récente crise économique et fi nancière appelle non pas une modification de la stratégie de politique monétaire, mais une meilleure prise en compte des conditions financières et du risque de crise fi nancière dans la mise en oeuvre de cette stratégie : telle semble être la principale conclusion d’un colloque organisé par la Banque de France, la Banque d’Italie et l’institut Einaudi.Bulles de prix d’actif, crise financière, marché interbancaire, politique macroprudentielle, politique monétaire.

Robust algorithm for estimating total suspended solids (TSS) in inland and nearshore coastal waters

One of the challenging tasks in modern aquatic remote sensing is the retrieval of near-surface concentrations of Total Suspended Solids (TSS). This study aims to present a Statistical, inherent Optical property (IOP) -based, and muLti-conditional Inversion proceDure (SOLID) for enhanced retrievals of satellite-derived TSS under a wide range of in-water bio-optical conditions in rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters. In this study, using a large in situ database (N \u3e 3500), the SOLID model is devised using a three-step procedure: (a) water-type classification of the input remote sensing reflectance (Rrs), (b) retrieval of particulate backscattering (bbp) in the red or near-infrared (NIR) regions using semi-analytical, machine-learning, and empirical models, and (c) estimation of TSS from bbp via water-type-specific empirical models. Using an independent subset of our in situ data (N = 2729) with TSS ranging from 0.1 to 2626.8 [g/m3], the SOLID model is thoroughly examined and compared against several state-of-the-art algorithms (Miller and McKee, 2004; Nechad et al., 2010; Novoa et al., 2017; Ondrusek et al., 2012; Petus et al., 2010). We show that SOLID outperforms all the other models to varying degrees, i.e.,from 10 to \u3e100%, depending on the statistical attributes (e.g., global versus water-type-specific metrics). For demonstration purposes, the model is implemented for images acquired by the MultiSpectral Imager aboard Sentinel-2A/B over the Chesapeake Bay, San-Francisco-Bay-Delta Estuary, Lake Okeechobee, and Lake Taihu. To enable generating consistent, multimission TSS products, its performance is further extended to, and evaluated for, other missions, such as the Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Operational Land Imager (OLI). Sensitivity analyses on uncertainties induced by the atmospheric correction indicate that 10% uncertainty in Rrs leads to \u3c20% uncertainty in TSS retrievals from SOLID. While this study suggests that SOLID has a potential for producing TSS products in global coastal and inland waters, our statistical analysis certainly verifies that there is still a need for improving retrievals across a wide spectrum of particle loads

Rheological Characterization of the Bundling Transition in F-Actin Solutions Induced by Methylcellulose

In many in vitro experiments Brownian motion hampers quantitative data analysis. Therefore, additives are widely used to increase the solvent viscosity. For this purpose, methylcellulose (MC) has been proven highly effective as already small concentrations can significantly slow down diffusive processes. Beside this advantage, it has already been reported that high MC concentrations can alter the microstructure of polymer solutions such as filamentous actin. However, it remains to be shown to what extent the mechanical properties of a composite actin/MC gel depend on the MC concentration. In particular, significant alterations might occur even if the microstructure seems unaffected. Indeed, we find that the viscoelastic response of entangled F-actin solutions depends sensitively on the amount of MC added. At concentrations higher than 0.2% (w/v) MC, actin filaments are reorganized into bundles which drastically changes the viscoelastic response. At small MC concentrations the impact of MC is more subtle: the two constituents, actin and MC, contribute in an additive way to the mechanical response of the composite material. As a consequence, the effect of methylcellulose on actin solutions has to be considered very carefully when MC is used in biochemical experiments