Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

All-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from isolated neutron stars in the early O3 LIGO data

We report on an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves in the frequency band 20-2000 Hz and with a frequency time derivative in the range of [-1.0,+0.1]×10-8 Hz/s. Such a signal could be produced by a nearby, spinning and slightly nonaxisymmetric isolated neutron star in our Galaxy. This search uses the LIGO data from the first six months of Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's third observational run, O3. No periodic gravitational wave signals are observed, and 95% confidence-level (C.L.) frequentist upper limits are placed on their strengths. The lowest upper limits on worst-case (linearly polarized) strain amplitude h0 are ∼1.7×10-25 near 200 Hz. For a circularly polarized source (most favorable orientation), the lowest upper limits are ∼6.3×10-26. These strict frequentist upper limits refer to all sky locations and the entire range of frequency derivative values. For a population-averaged ensemble of sky locations and stellar orientations, the lowest 95% C.L. upper limits on the strain amplitude are ∼1.4×10-25. These upper limits improve upon our previously published all-sky results, with the greatest improvement (factor of ∼2) seen at higher frequencies, in part because quantum squeezing has dramatically improved the detector noise level relative to the second observational run, O2. These limits are the most constraining to date over most of the parameter space searched

All-sky, all-frequency directional search for persistent gravitational waves from Advanced LIGO’s and Advanced Virgo’s first three observing runs

We present the first results from an all-sky all-frequency (ASAF) search for an anisotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background using the data from the first three observing runs of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. Upper limit maps on broadband anisotropies of a persistent stochastic background were published for all observing runs of the LIGO-Virgo detectors. However, a broadband analysis is likely to miss narrowband signals as the signal-to-noise ratio of a narrowband signal can be significantly reduced when combined with detector output from other frequencies. Data folding and the computationally efficient analysis pipeline, {\tt PyStoch}, enable us to perform the radiometer map-making at every frequency bin. We perform the search at 3072 {\tt{HEALPix}} equal area pixels uniformly tiling the sky and in every frequency bin of width $1/32$~Hz in the range $20-1726$~Hz, except for bins that are likely to contain instrumental artefacts and hence are notched. We do not find any statistically significant evidence for the existence of narrowband gravitational-wave signals in the analyzed frequency bins. Therefore, we place $95\%$ confidence upper limits on the gravitational-wave strain for each pixel-frequency pair, the limits are in the range $(0.030 - 9.6) \times10^{-24}$. In addition, we outline a method to identify candidate pixel-frequency pairs that could be followed up by a more sensitive (and potentially computationally expensive) search, e.g., a matched-filtering-based analysis, to look for fainter nearly monochromatic coherent signals. The ASAF analysis is inherently independent of models describing any spectral or spatial distribution of power. We demonstrate that the ASAF results can be appropriately combined over frequencies and sky directions to successfully recover the broadband directional and isotropic results

Search for gravitational waves associated with gamma-ray bursts detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO–Virgo run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC–2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: a generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate