Spatiotemporal patterns of population in mainland China, 1990 to 2010

According to UN forecasts, global population will increase to over 8 billion by 2025, with much of this anticipated population growth expected in urban areas. In China, the scale of urbanization has, and continues to be, unprecedented in terms of magnitude and rate of change. Since the late 1970s, the percentage of Chinese living in urban areas increased from ~18% to over 50%. To quantify these patterns spatially we use time-invariant or temporally-explicit data, including census data for 1990, 2000, and 2010 in an ensemble prediction model. Resulting multi-temporal, gridded population datasets are unique in terms of granularity and extent, providing fine-scale (~100 m) patterns of population distribution for mainland China. For consistency purposes, the Tibet Autonomous Region, Taiwan, and the islands in the South China Sea were excluded. The statistical model and considerations for temporally comparable maps are described, along with the resulting datasets. Final, mainland China population maps for 1990, 2000, and 2010 are freely available as products from the WorldPop Project website and the WorldPop Dataverse Repository

Fault Trees from Data: Efficient Learning with an Evolutionary Algorithm

Cyber-physical systems come with increasingly complex architectures and failure modes, which complicates the task of obtaining accurate system reliability models. At the same time, with the emergence of the (industrial) Internet-of-Things, systems are more and more often being monitored via advanced sensor systems. These sensors produce large amounts of data about the components' failure behaviour, and can, therefore, be fruitfully exploited to learn reliability models automatically. This paper presents an effective algorithm for learning a prominent class of reliability models, namely fault trees, from observational data. Our algorithm is evolutionary in nature; i.e., is an iterative, population-based, randomized search method among fault-tree structures that are increasingly more consistent with the observational data. We have evaluated our method on a large number of case studies, both on synthetic data, and industrial data. Our experiments show that our algorithm outperforms other methods and provides near-optimal results.Comment: This paper is an extended version of the SETTA 2019 paper, Springer-Verla

Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods

Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia. Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015. Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly

Androgen deprivation modulates the inflammatory response induced by irradiation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to determine whether radiation (RT)-induced inflammatory responses and organ damage might be modulated by androgen deprivation therapies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The mRNA and tissue sections obtained from the lungs, intestines and livers of irradiated mice with or without androgen deprivation were analyzed by real-time PCR and histological analysis. Activation of NF-kappa B was examined by measuring nuclear protein levels in the intestine and lung 24 h after irradiation. We also examined the levels of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), TGF-β1 and p-AKT to elucidate the related pathway responsible to irradiation (RT) -induced fibrosis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found androgen deprivation by castration significantly augmented RT-induced inflammation, associated with the increase NF-κB activation and COX-2 expression. However, administration of flutamide had no obvious effect on the radiation-induced inflammation response in the lung and intestine. These different responses were probably due to the increase of RT-induced NF-κB activation and COX-2 expression by castration or lupron treatment. In addition, our data suggest that TGF-β1 and the induced epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) via the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway may contribute to RT-induced fibrosis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When irradiation was given to patients with total androgen deprivation, the augmenting effects on the RT-induced inflammation and fibrosis should take into consideration for complications associated with radiotherapy.</p

Diffusion of Subsidized ACTs in Accredited Drug Shops in Tanzania: Determinants of Stocking and Characteristics of Early and Late Adopters.

Many households in sub-Saharan Africa utilize the private sector as a primary source of treatment for malaria episodes. Expanding access to effective treatment in private drug shops may help reduce incidence of severe disease and mortality. This research leveraged a longitudinal survey of stocking of subsidized artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), an effective anti-malarial, in Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) in two regions of Tanzania. This provided a unique opportunity to explore shop and market level determinants of product diffusion in a developing country retail market. 356 ADDOs in the Rukwa and Mtwara regions of Tanzania were surveyed at seven points between Feb 2011 and May 2012. Shop level audits were used to measure the availability of subsidized ACTs at each shop. Data on market and shop level factors were collected during the survey and also extracted from GIS layers. Regression and network based methodologies were used. Shops classified as early and late adopters, following Rogers' model of product diffusion, were compared. The Bass model of product diffusion was applied to determine whether shops stocked ACTs out of a need to imitate market competitors or a desire to satisfy customer needs. Following the introduction of a subsidy for ACTs, stocking increased from 12% to nearly 80% over the seven survey rounds. Stocking was influenced by higher numbers of proximal shops and clinics, larger customer traffic and the presence of a licensed pharmacist. Early adopters were characterized by a larger percentage of customers seeking care for malaria, a larger catchment and sourcing from specific wholesalers/suppliers. The Bass model of product diffusion indicated that shops were adopting products in response to competitor behavior, rather than customer demand. Decisions to stock new pharmaceutical products in Tanzanian ADDOs are influenced by a combination of factors related to both market competition and customer demand, but are particularly influenced by the behavior of competing shops. Efforts to expand access to new pharmaceutical products in developing country markets could benefit from initial targeting of high profile shops in competitive markets and wholesale suppliers to encourage faster product diffusion across all drug retailers

Milder winters in northern Scandinavia may contribute to larger outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever virus

The spread of zoonotic infectious diseases may increase due to climate factors such as temperature, humidity and precipitation. This is also true for hantaviruses, which are globally spread haemorrhagic fever viruses carried by rodents. Hantaviruses are frequently transmitted to humans all over the world and regarded as emerging viral diseases. Climate variations affect the rodent reservoir populations and rodent population peaks coincide with increased number of human cases of hantavirus infections. In northern Sweden, a form of haemorrhagic fever called nephropathia epidemica (NE), caused by the Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is endemic and during 2006–2007 an unexpected, sudden and large outbreak of NE occurred in this region. The incidence was 313 cases/100,000 inhabitants in the most endemic areas, and from January through March 2007 the outbreak had a dramatic and sudden start with 474 cases in the endemic region alone. The PUUV rodent reservoir is bank voles and immediately before and during the peak of disease outbreak the affected regions experienced extreme climate conditions with a record-breaking warm winter, registering temperatures 6–9°C above normal. No protective snow cover was present before the outbreak and more bank voles than normal came in contact with humans inside or in close to human dwellings. These extreme climate conditions most probably affected the rodent reservoir and are important factors for the severity of the outbreak

Caffeic acid phenethyl ester decreases acute pneumonitis after irradiation in vitro and in vivo

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is relatively resistant to radiation treatment and radiation pneumonitis is a major obstacle to increasing the radiation dose. We previously showed that Caffeic acid phenethyl ester (CAPE) induces apoptosis and increases radiosensitivity in lung cancer. To determine whether CAPE, an antioxidant and an inhibitor of NF-kappa B, could be a useful adjuvant agent for lung cancer treatment, we examine the effects of CAPE on irradiated normal lung tissue in this study. METHODS: We compared the effects of CAPE on cytotoxicity and intracellular oxidative stress in normal lung fibroblast and a lung cancer cell line. For in vivo analysis, whole thorax radiation (single dose 10 Gy and 20 Gy) was delivered to BALB/c male mice with or without CAPE pretreatment. NF- kappaB activation and the expression levels of acute inflammatory cytokines were evaluated in mice after irradiation. RESULTS: The in vitro studies showed that CAPE cause no significant cytotoxicity in normal lung as compared to lung cancer cells. This is probably due to the differential effect on the expression of NF-kappa B between normal and malignant lung cells. The results from in vivo study showed that CAPE treatment decreased the expression of inflammatory cytokines including IL-1 alpha and beta, IL-6, TNF-alpha and TGF- beta, after irradiation. Moreover, histological and immunochemical data revealed that CAPE decreased radiation- induced interstitial pneumonitis and TGF-beta expression. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that CAPE decreases the cascade of inflammatory responses induced by thoracic irradiation without causing toxicity in normal lung tissue. This provides a rationale for combining CAPE and thoracic radiotherapy for lung cancer treatment in further clinical studies

Long-Term Alterations of Cytokines and Growth Factors Expression in Irradiated Tissues and Relation with Histological Severity Scoring

PURPOSE: Beside its efficacy in cancer treatment, radiotherapy induces degeneration of healthy tissues within the irradiated area. The aim of this study was to analyze the variations of proinflammatory (IL-1α, IL-2, IL-6, TNF-α, IFN-γ), profibrotic (TGF-β1), proangiogneic (VEGF) and stem cell mobilizing (GM-CSF) cytokines and growth factors in an animal model of radiation-induced tissue degeneration. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 24 rats were irradiated unilaterally on the hindlimb at a monodose of 30 Gy. Six weeks (n=8), 6 months (n=8) and 1 year (n=8) after irradiation the mediators expression in skin and muscle were analyzed using Western blot and the Bio-Plex® protein array (BPA) technology. Additional histological severity for fibrosis, inflammation, vascularity and cellularity alterations scoring was defined from histology and immnunohistochemistry analyses. RESULTS: A significant increase of histological severity scoring was found in irradiated tissue. Skin tissues were more radio-sensitive than muscle. A high level of TGF-β1 expression was found throughout the study and a significant relation was evidenced between TGF-β1 expression and fibrosis scoring. Irradiated tissue showed a chronic inflammation (IL-2 and TNF-α significantly increased). Moreover a persistent expression of GM-CSF and VEGF was found in all irradiated tissues. The vascular score was related to TGF-β1 expression and the cellular alterations score was significantly related with the level of IL-2, VEGF and GM-CSF. CONCLUSION: The results achieved in the present study underline the complexity and multiplicity of radio-induced alterations of cytokine network. It offers many perspectives of development, for the comprehension of the mechanisms of late injuries or for the histological and molecular evaluation of the mode of action and the efficacy of rehabilitation techniques