Impact of climate change on non-communicable diseases caused by altered UV radiation

Background: UV radiation can cause serious skin and eye diseases, especially cancers. UV-related skin cancer incidences have been increasing for decades. The determining factor for this development is the individual UV exposure. Climate change-induced changes in atmospheric factors can influence individual UV exposure. Methods: On the basis of a topic-specific literature research, a review paper was prepared and supplemented by as yet unpublished results of the authors’ own studies. The need for scientific research and development is formulated as well as primary prevention recommendations. Results: Climate change alters the factors influencing UV irradiance and annual UV dose in Germany. First evaluations of satellite data for Germany show an increase in mean peak UV irradiance and annual UV dose for the last decade compared to the last three decades. Conclusions: The climate change-related influences on individual UV exposure and the associated individual disease incidence cannot yet be reliably predicted due to considerable uncertainties. However, the current UV-related burden of disease already requires primary preventive measures to prevent UV-related diseases. This is part of a series of articles that constitute the German Status Report on Climate Change and Health 2023

Impact of climate change on non-communicable diseases caused by altered UV radiation

Background: UV radiation can cause serious skin and eye diseases, especially cancers. UV-related skin cancer incidences have been increasing for decades. The determining factor for this development is the individual UV exposure. Climate change-induced changes in atmospheric factors can influence individual UV exposure. Methods: On the basis of a topic-specific literature research, a review paper was prepared and supplemented by as yet unpublished results of the authors’ own studies. The need for scientific research and development is formulated as well as primary prevention recommendations. Results: Climate change alters the factors influencing UV irradiance and annual UV dose in Germany. First evaluations of satellite data for Germany show an increase in mean peak UV irradiance and annual UV dose for the last decade compared to the last three decades. Conclusions: The climate change-related influences on individual UV exposure and the associated individual disease incidence cannot yet be reliably predicted due to considerable uncertainties. However, the current UV-related burden of disease already requires primary preventive measures to prevent UV-related diseases

Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf nicht-übertragbare Erkrankungen durch veränderte UV-Strahlung

Hintergrund: UV-Strahlung kann zu ernsten Erkrankungen von Haut und Augen führen, insbesondere Krebserkrankungen. UV-bedingte Hautkrebsinzidenzen steigen seit Jahrzehnten an. Entscheidend hierfür ist die individuelle UV-Belastung. Klimawandelbedingte Änderungen atmosphärischer Faktoren können Einfluss auf die individuelle UV-Belastung nehmen. Methode: Auf Basis einer themenspezifischen Literaturrecherche wird eine Übersichtsarbeit erstellt und durch noch nicht publizierte Ergebnisse eigener Studien ergänzt. Es werden der wissenschaftliche Forschungs- und Entwicklungsbedarf sowie primärpräventive Handlungsempfehlungen formuliert. Ergebnisse: Der Klimawandel verändert in Deutschland die Einflussfaktoren auf die UV-Bestrahlungsstärke und die UV-Jahresdosis. Erste Auswertungen von Satellitendaten für Deutschland zeigen für das letzte Jahrzehnt im Vergleich zu den letzten drei Jahrzehnten eine Erhöhung der mittleren UV-Spitzenbelastungen und UV-Jahresdosis. Schlussfolgerungen: Die klimawandelbedingten Einflüsse auf die individuelle UV-Belastung und das damit verbundene individuelle Krankheitsgeschehen lassen sich aufgrund von erheblichen Unsicherheiten gegenwärtig noch nicht belastbar vorhersagen. Aber bereits das derzeitige UV-bedingte Krankheitsgeschehen drängt zu primärpräventiven Maßnahmen zur Vorbeugung UV-bedingter Erkrankungen

Validation of the Fiala multi-node thermophysiological model for UTCI application

The important requirement that COST Action 730 demanded of the physiological model to be used for the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was its capability of accurate simulation of human thermophysiological responses across a wide range of relevant environmental conditions, such as conditions corresponding to the selection of all habitable climates and their seasonal changes, and transient conditions representing the temporal variation of outdoor conditions. In the first part of this study, available heat budget/two-node models and multi-node thermophysiological models were evaluated by direct comparison over a wide spectrum of climatic conditions. The UTCI-Fiala model predicted most reliably the average human thermal response, as shown by least deviations from physiologically plausible responses when compared to other models. In the second part of the study, this model was subjected to extensive validation using the results of human subject experiments for a range of relevant (steady-state and transient) environmental conditions. The UTCI-Fiala multi-node model proved its ability to predict adequately the human physiological response for a variety of moderate and extreme conditions represented in the COST 730 database. The mean skin and core temperatures were predicted with average root-mean-square deviations of 1.35 ± 1.00°C and 0.32 ± 0.20°C, respectivel

Validation of the Fiala multi-node thermophysiological model for UTCI application

The important requirement that COST Action 730 demanded of the physiological model to be used for the Universal Thermal Climate Index was its capability of accurate simulation of the human thermophysiological responses across a wide range of relevant environmental conditions, such as conditions corresponding to the selection of all habitable climates and their seasonal changes, and transient conditions representing temporal variation of outdoor conditions. In the first part of this study available heat budget/two-node models and multi-node thermophysiological models were evaluated by direct comparison over the wide spectrum of climatic conditions. The UTCI-Fiala model predicted most reliably the average human thermal response which was showed by least deviations from physiologically plausible responses when compared to other models. In the second part of the study, this model was, therefore, subjected to extensive validation using results of human subject experiments for a range of relevant (steady-state and transient) environmental conditions. The UTCI-Fiala multi-node model proved its ability to predict adequately the human physiological response for a variety of moderate and extreme conditions represented in the COST 730 database. The mean skin and core temperatures were predicted with average root-meansquare deviations of 1.35 ± 1.00 °C and 0.32 ± 0.20 °C, respectively

Thermische umweltbedingungen [The thermal environment]

Zusammenfassung Die Bewertung und Vorhersage der thermischen Umweltbedingungen des Menschen in einer physiologisch korrekten, wirkungsvollen und praktischen Weise stellt eines der wichtigsten Fragestellungen in der Human-Biometeorologie dar. Dies ergibt sich aus der Notwendigkeit, den Wärmehaushalt des Menschen den thermischen Umweltbedingungen anzupassen, um Gesundheit, Wohlbefinden und Leistungsfähigkeit zu gewährleisten. Ausgehend von der Wärmbilanz des Menschen wird ein Überblick über verschiedene Bewertungsansätze gegeben bis hin zur Entwicklung des „Universellen thermischen Klimaindex UTCI“ im Rahmen der COST Action 730 (2004). Ausgewählte Anwendungen sollten die Relevanz der thermischen Bewertung im Bereich Wetter/ Klima und Gesundheit verdeutlichen. Abstract One of the fundamental issues in human biometeorology is the assessment and forecast of the thermal environment in a sound, effective and practical way. This is due to the need for human beings to balance their heat budget to a state very close to his/her thermal environment in order to optimise his/her comfort, performance and health. Based on the human heat budget an overview is given on different assessment approaches up to the development of the “Universal Thermal Climate Index” within COST Action 730 (2004). Selected applications from the weather/ climate and human health field should make clear the significance of a thermal assessment

Weather-Related Human Outdoor Behavior with Respect to Solar Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure in a Changing Climate

Climate-related changes in human sun exposure behavior can be an important influence on future ultraviolet radiation (UVR) related disease risks. In particular, active leisure mobility and leisure activities are more dependent on weather conditions than routine activities. However, the direction and extent of the effects vary. For temperate and cold climates, the available studies provide indications that a possible increase in UVR exposure would primarily result from a reduction in clothing and only secondarily from changes in the time spent outdoors. Existing studies suggest a nonlinear, bell-shaped relationship with threshold value effects for the relationship between outdoor time and thermal conditions. If the local climate is already very warm and there are only minor seasonal differences, there is no statistically significant evidence of changes in behavior. If there is significant warm discomfort, there is a tendency to avoid being outdoors or in the sun. It is not justified to simply transfer and generalize results and conclusions to different climates and seasons and between different leisure activities and forms of active mobility. The geographical context must be considered also in terms of cultures and habits, adaptations, traffic and land use (urban, rural). In addition, changes in behavior can develop differently depending on individual characteristics of people such as heat affinity, leisure type, age and gender. Differentiated analyses are required that take into account and balance opposing effects

Long-Term Changes of Positive Anomalies of Erythema-Effective UV Irradiance Associated with Low Ozone Events in Germany 1983–2019

In order to assess whether there is an increasing need for adaptation to the associated human health risks, the long-term occurrence (1983–2019) of low-ozone events (LOEs) with associated near-surface anomalies of erythema-effective UV irradiance was examined using an impact-related approach. Based on satellite data, means of four locations in Germany (Sylt, Berlin, Frankfurt, Munich) were compared for three subperiods (T1: 1983–1989, T2: 1990–1997, T3: 1998–2019). The period of peak global ozone depletion in the 1990s (T2) is characterized by a larger frequency of LOEs than the preceding (T1) and the subsequent (T3) subperiods. During the most recent subperiod (T3), the mean number of LOEs is 1.1 ± 0.5 events/year, with a variability of 0 to 4.2 ± 0.8 events/year, and shows a statistically significant decrease in the annual number of −4.8%/year. The annual totals of the LOE-associated anomalies of the erythema-effective UV radiation dose show no trend during T3. With regard to LOE-associated UV index anomalies, spring is the season most affected by LOEs, with more than half of all cumulative UV peak loads, while the absolute maximum values of the LOE-associated UV index anomaly of about 1.8 UV index occur near the summer solstice. Within the most recent subperiod (T3), summer contributes an increasing share of the peak loads. Overall, the study confirms that LOEs pose health risks due to intermittent, pronounced positive anomalies in erythema-effective UV irradiance and therefore require special attention and adaptation measures. Long-term changes can be identified, but to date there has been no evidence of an increasing health risk in Germany

Weather-Related Human Outdoor Behavior with Respect to Solar Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure in a Changing Climate

Climate-related changes in human sun exposure behavior can be an important influence on future ultraviolet radiation (UVR) related disease risks. In particular, active leisure mobility and leisure activities are more dependent on weather conditions than routine activities. However, the direction and extent of the effects vary. For temperate and cold climates, the available studies provide indications that a possible increase in UVR exposure would primarily result from a reduction in clothing and only secondarily from changes in the time spent outdoors. Existing studies suggest a nonlinear, bell-shaped relationship with threshold value effects for the relationship between outdoor time and thermal conditions. If the local climate is already very warm and there are only minor seasonal differences, there is no statistically significant evidence of changes in behavior. If there is significant warm discomfort, there is a tendency to avoid being outdoors or in the sun. It is not justified to simply transfer and generalize results and conclusions to different climates and seasons and between different leisure activities and forms of active mobility. The geographical context must be considered also in terms of cultures and habits, adaptations, traffic and land use (urban, rural). In addition, changes in behavior can develop differently depending on individual characteristics of people such as heat affinity, leisure type, age and gender. Differentiated analyses are required that take into account and balance opposing effects

The Summers 2003 and 2015 in South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in the Context of Climate Change

After 2003, another hot summer took place in Western and Central Europe in 2015. In this study, we compare the characteristics of the two major heat waves of these two summers and their effect on the heat related mortality. The analysis is performed with focus on South-West Germany (Baden–Württemberg). With an additional mean summer mortality of +7.9% (2003) and +5.8% (2015) both years mark the top-two records of the summer mortality in the period 1968–2015. In each summer, one major heat wave contributed strongly to the excess summer mortality: In August 2003, daily mortality reached anomalies of +70% and in July 2015 maximum deviations of +56% were observed. The August 2003 heat wave was very long-lasting and characterized by exceptional high maximum and minimum temperatures. In July 2015, temperatures were slightly lower than in 2003, however, the high air humidity during the day and night, lead to comparable heat loads. Furthermore, the heat wave occurred earlier during the summer, when the population was less acclimated to heat stress. Using regional climate models we project an increasing probability for future 2003- and 2015-like heat waves already in the near future (2021–2050), with a 2015-like event occurring about every second summer. In the far future (2070–2099) pronounced increases with more than two 2015-like heat waves per summer are possible