Dépenses publiques d'éducation et pauvreté au Burkina Faso: une approche en Équilibre Général Calculable

Un modèle d’équilibre général calculable multisectoriel est construit afin d’évaluer les répercussions directes et indirectes des politiques publiques en matière d’éducation sur le bien-être, la pauvreté et la distribution des revenus au Burkina Faso. Il spécifie une dotation en main-d’œuvre qualifiée et non qualifiée flexible pour chaque ménage. Le système d’éducation est scindé en deux : L’éducation de base et l’éducation supérieure. Le volume d’éducation supérieure est exogène alors que l’éducation de base est demandée par les ménages à des fins d’investissement et permet de « transformer » les travailleurs non qualifiés en travailleurs qualifiés. Les simulations indiquent qu’une augmentation uniforme de 40 % des subventions publiques en éducation de base, financée par une augmentation de l’impôt sur le revenu des ménages et de la taxe de vente, se traduirait non seulement par une augmentation du bien-être mais par une baisse de l’incidence de la pauvreté pour tous les ménages.Modèle EGC, dépenses publiques d'éducation, pauvreté, Burkina Faso

Essays on Public Investment, Financing Mechanisms and Growth in Developing Countries : Interactions and Role of Structural Factors

Cette thèse vise à étudier les liens entre les investissements publics, le mode definancement et la croissance économique, tout en mettant en exergue le rôle des conditionsstructurelles. Premièrement, dans un scenario d’amélioration des conditions structurelles(mesurées par l’efficience et la capacité d'absorption de l’économie) comparé à un scenario debase, nous montrons que le potentiel de croissance est supérieur comparé au scenario de base. Parconséquent, la stabilisation de la dette ne nécessite pas des ajustements budgétaires douloureux.Deuxièmement, à travers un scénario d'investissement agressif sur la base d’emprunts nonconcessionnelsen anticipation des revenus futurs du pétrole, nous constatons l’occurrence decontraintes liées à la capacité d'absorption et partant l’effet adverse du syndrome hollandais sur lacroissance du PIB hors pétrole. En outre, des réformes structurelles qui résorberaient lescontraintes liées à l’inefficience et à la capacité d'absorption se traduiraient par une augmentationimportante et durable du capital public. Cela entrainerait une croissance supplémentaire du PIBhors pétrole. Troisièmement, nous montrons que les délais d’exécution peuvent contrer l’effetclassique selon lequel une augmentation de l’investissement public entraine un effet richessenégatif dans le long terme. Aussi, une productivité élevée de l’investissement public peutsubstantiellement créer un effet richesse positif dans le long terme, stimuler la production etpermettre à la consommation et à l’investissement privé de baisser moins. Finalement, noussimulons l’impact des dépenses publiques d’éducation sur la pauvreté au Burkina Faso en utilisant2 mécanismes d’ajustement fiscal : la taxe directe et la taxe indirecte. Les simulations montrentqu’une augmentation uniforme de 40 pourcent des dépenses publiques dans l’éducation primairefiancée par les deux mécanismes de financement améliore non seulement le bien-être maiségalement entraine une baisse de la pauvreté chez tous les types de ménage. Toutefois, lefinancement par la taxe indirecte conduit à un résultat inférieur comparé au financement par lataxe directe.This dissertation seeks to study the public investment-financing-growth linkages whileeliciting the role of structural economic conditions. First, through an alternative scenario ofimproved structural economic conditions (efficiency and absorptive capacity) and comparing witha baseline scenario, we find that the growth potential is higher than the baseline. Consequently,stabilizing debt does not require painful fiscal consolidation. Second, through an aggressiveinvestment scaling-up scenario that builds on commercial borrowing in anticipation of future oilrevenue, we find that the economy is subject to absorptive capacity constraints and ultimately toDutch disease effects that affect negatively the non-oil GDP growth in the short run. Moreover,we find that structural reforms that address absorptive capacity constraints and inefficienciestranslate into sizable and sustainable increase in public capital. This in turn has a positive spillovereffect in terms of additional growth in the non-resource GDP. Third, we find that implementationdelays can offset the standard negative wealth effect from an increase in government investmentspending in the long run. Also, high-yielding public investment can substantially create positivewealth effect in the long run, raise output and enable private consumption and investment to fallless. Finally, we simulate a 40-percent across-the-board increase in public spending for primaryeducation, financed by an increase in taxes on household income and indirect taxes. We find thatthe two financing mechanisms, not only leads to an increase in the welfare but also to a decline inthe incidence of poverty for all household types. However, the indirect tax-based financing leadsto smaller outcomes compared to the income tax-based financing

Foreign Currency Debt and Exchange Rate Regimes in the Prospective Monetary Union of the ECOWAS Countries

Corporates in developing countries often issue foreign currency denominated debt. Liability dollarization carries additional risks since large devaluation of the real exchange rate can suddenly raise default probabilities. We use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with the “balance sheet channel” similar to Bernanke et al (1999) explicitly modeled to study the implications of liability dollarization for the conduct of monetary policy. Bayesian estimation methods are employed and the model is estimated for the Economic Community of the West African States (ECOWAS). We find that a floating regime offers greater stability than a hard peg. Results are robust to different model parameters, except for the degree of openness, highlighting the role of demand-switching effects

A 2005 social accounting matrix for Burkina Faso

The 2005 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Burkina Faso is an agricultural-focused SAM and, as such, it is mainly elaborated from the Agricultural Supply and Use Table (ASUT) for the same year. The matrix is then complemented with other sources of data including the 2005 National Supply and Use Table (NSUT), the 2005 Integrated Economic Accounts Table (IEAT), 2003 household survey data, and 2006-08 agricultural survey data. The SAM subsequently presents in its detailed structure 132 accounts of goods and services, of which 47 are agricultural products, and 74 accounts of activities. The factor account consists of three categories of agricultural workers and two types of capital, distinguishing between agricultural and non-agricultural capital. The accounts for the institutional units distinguish between four representative categories of households, one Government account, two accounts of financial and non-financial corporations, and one account of non-resident institutions or Rest of the world (ROW).Non-PRIFPRI1; AGRODEPMTI

Simulation of the Effects of the Economic Crisis and Response Policies on Children in West and Central Africa: the Case of Burkina Faso. Simulation des effets de la crise économique et des politiques de réponse sur les enfants en Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre: le cas du Burkina Faso.

Burkina Faso’s hard earned economic gains in recent years have been eroded by the 2008-09 world financial and economic crisis. The country will particularly feel the effects of the world economic crisis due to its close links with the world economy. Most of the adverse effects are transmitted to households then passed onto children. The situation of children principally depends on the monetary and non-monetary wellbeing of their household. This, together with their greater vulnerability, means that children are at risk of suffering more, and for longer, from the impacts of the crisis. It is therefore crucial to understand and anticipate the effects that the crisis may have on children in Burkina Faso and to propose options for social protection to counter these effects. To this end, we propose a macro-micro economic approach. Macro-micro economic analysis uses a general calculable equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impacts of various transmission channels of the crisis to the Burkinabe economy. The results of these simulations are then used for the micro-econometric analysis, which integrates individual and household economic behaviour to evaluate the impact of the crisis on child welfare. According to our simulations, which run from 2009 to 2011, the financial crisis respectively leads to 5 and 1 percentage point increases in the incidence of monetary and caloric poverty among Burkinabe children. Moreover, the school enrolment rate for children will decline by about 0.7 percentage points due to the crisis, while the child labour rate will increase by about 1 percentage point. Finally, a 1 percentage point decrease in the medical consultation rate among children is expected, along with substitution from modern health services to traditional medicine. Large regional and rural vs. urban gaps are also noted. A monetary transfer policy targeting poor children appears to be the most effective at reversing the negative effects of the crisis and returning to the trend that would have existed without the crisis. Such a policy, financed by external aid and with a budget of 1% of GDP, re-establishes the trend that monetary poverty would have followed in the absence of a crisis and even leads to a reduction in hunger. It also limits the crisis’ adverse effects on school enrolment, child labour and sick children’s access to modern health care services. A universal (non-targeted) variant of this transfer policy for 0-5 year-olds has similar results and is easier to enact. Policies which subsidize food and cereals, as well as monetary transfer policies for the Centre and Mouhoun regions (the areas most affected by the August-September 2009 floods) were also analyzed.World economic crisis, child poverty, hunger, education, child labour health, West and Central Africa, social protection

Long-run impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on food security in Africa

Many African countries heavily rely on imports of agricultural commodities and agricultural inputs from Ukraine and Russia, for example wheat, other grains, and fertilizer. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global access to grains due to reduced production, exports, and increased trade costs. This policy brief investigates the possible long-term consequences of the conflict on food security in Africa. We use a long-run general equilibrium trade model and study three scenarios that may evolve as a consequence of the conflict: 1) Ending exports of Ukrainian wheat and other cereals for food production, such as corn or sorghum. 2) Russia's potential ban on exports of grains and fertilizers, and 3) The impact of increased trade costs due to disrupted trade routes in the Black Sea. The model simulations show the conflict will severely compromise food security in Africa. We document important cross-country heterogeneity in the severity of impacts.Viele afrikanische Länder sind stark von Importen von Agrargütern und Inputs aus der Ukraine und Russland abhängig, beispielsweise Weizen, anderen Getreiden und Dünger. Russlands Invasion der Ukraine gefährdet die weltweite Verfügbarkeit von Getreide aufgrund reduzierter Produktion, geringeren Exporten, und gestiegenen Handelskosten. Dieser Policy Brief untersucht die möglichen langfristigen Auswirkungen des Konflikts auf die Ernährungssicherheit in Afrika. Wir verwenden ein langfristiges allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell, um drei Szenarien, die in Folge des Konflikts entstehen könnten, zu analysieren. 1) Ein Ende der Exporte ukrainischen Weizens und anderer Getreide für die Lebensmittelproduktion, beispielsweise Mais und Hirse, 2) Ein möglicher Stopp russischer Getreide- und Düngerexporte, und 3) Der Einfluss gestiegener Handelskosten aufgrund der gestörten Handelsrouten im Schwarzen Meer. Die Modellsimulationen zeigen, dass der Konflikt die Ernährungssicherheit in Afrika gefährdet. Wir dokumentieren wichtige Länderunterschiede in der Schwere der Betroffenheit

Long‐run impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on grain imports and prices in Africa

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has threatened global grain supplies as it reduces production and exports while increasing trade costs. While the overall share of Africa's trade with Ukraine and Russia is small, the concentration of imports in products such as wheat, other grains, and fertilizer is critical to food security. This paper investigates the long‐term impacts of the conflict on grain imports and prices in Africa. We use a long‐run general equilibrium trade model to study three scenarios that may evolve as a consequence of the conflict: (1) a heavily reduced Ukrainian production of wheat and other grains; (2) rising trade costs with Ukraine and Russia due to disrupted trade routes in the Black Sea and the sanctions against trading with Russia; and (3) an outright ban on Russian grain export. The model simulations show that the conflict severely affects grain imports, raising local prices for wheat and other grains, with especially strong effects in high import‐dependent countries. That creates risks for food security in some African countries

Public investment and human capital with segmented labour markets

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model with segmented labour markets and efficiency wages to examine how labour market structures influence the impact of human capital investment in low-income countries. For plausible calibration values, public investment in education is much more effective than infrastructure investment in promoting long-run economic development, but because investment in education affects labour productivity with a lag, policymakers face an intertemporal trade-off which depends on their social discount rate and the weight of distributional objectives in the social welfare function. We show the distortionary structure of labour markets matters in leveraging welfare gains from public investment and in shifting the optimal public investment programme further in favour of human capital, relative to the case of flex-wage full-employment labour markets

Simulation des effets de la crise économique et des politiques de reponse sur les enfants en Afrique de l'Ouest et du Centre: le cas du Burkina Faso

Le Burkina Faso à vu ses gains économiques, durement acquis ces dernières années, rongés par la crise financière et économique mondiale du 2008-09. Il subit particulièrement les conséquences de la crise économique mondiale vu le lien étroit qu’il entretient avec l’économie globale. La plupart des effets néfastes sont d’abord transmis aux ménages, puis répercutés aux enfants. Ainsi, la situation des enfants dépend principalement du bien-être monétaire et non monétaire de leurs ménages. Par conséquent et étant donné leur plus grande vulnérabilité, les enfants risquent de souffrir davantage et plus longtemps des impacts de la crise. Il est nécessaire et urgent de comprendre et anticiper les effets potentiels de la crise sur les enfants au Burkina Faso, et ensuite de proposer des options de protection sociale pour les contrer. A cette fin, nous proposons une approche macro-micro économique. L’analyse macro-économique fait recours à un modèle d’équilibre général calculable (MEGC) pour simuler l’impact des divers canaux de transmission du choc de crise à l’économie Burkinabé. Les résultats de ces simulations nourrissent ensuite une analyse micro-économétrique qui intègre les comportements microéconomiques des individus et des ménages pour évaluer l'impact de la crise sur le bien-être des enfants.child education; child health; child labour; child poverty; econometric models; economic crisis; hunger; social protection;