Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Cyprus Pound at the time of Euro Adoption

One of the landmark events in the recent history of Cyprus was the adoption of the euro on 1 January 2008. A crucial element of the preparatory discussions between the Cypriot authorities and the competent European bodies was the search for an agreement on the conversion rate of the Cyprus pound vis-a-vis the euro, which was decided by the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) on 10 July 2007. This paper describes part of the work undertaken at the Central Bank of Cyprus as background material for these discussions. Using a qualitative and quantitative approach, the paper suggests that the exchange parity rate of the Cyprus pound vis-a-vis the euro which existed for a number of years prior to euro adoption was broadly in line with economic fundamentals. Evidence examined include the stability of the Cyprus pound vis-a-vis the euro within a credible exchange rate policy framework, robust growth, low levels of unemployment, high Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) coverage of the current account deficit as well as low and stable inflation. This conclusion is also supported by a model-based approach using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) framework.Equilibrium exchange rate, euro adoption, FEER

Jackknife Bias Reduction in the Presence of a Unit Root

This paper analyses the properties of jackknife estimators of the first-order autoregressive coefficient when the time series of interest contains a unit root. It is shown that, when the sub-samples do not overlap, the sub-sample estimators have different limiting distributions from the full-sample estimator and, hence, the jackknife estimator in its usual form does not eliminate fully the first-order bias as intended. The joint moment generating function of the numerator and denominator of these limiting distributions is derived and used to calculate the expectations that determine the optimal jackknife weights. Two methods of avoiding this procedure are proposed and investigated, one based on inclusion of an intercept in the regressions, the other based on adjusting the observations in the sub-samples. Extensions to more general augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) regressions are also considered. In addition to the theoretical results extensive simulations reveal the impressive bias reductions that can be obtained with these computationally simple jackknife estimators and they also highlight the importance of correct lag-length selection in ADF regressions.

Jackknife bias reduction in the presence of a near-unit root

This paper considers the specification and performance of jackknife estimators of the autoregressive coefficient in a model with a near-unit root. The limit distributions of sub-sample estimators that are used in the construction of the jackknife estimator are derived and the joint moment generating function (MGF) of two components of these distributions is obtained and its properties are explored. The MGF can be used to derive the weights for an optimal jackknife estimator that removes fully the first-order finite sample bias from the estimator. The resulting jackknife estimator is shown to perform well in finite samples and, with a suitable choice of the number of sub-samples, is shown to reduce the overall finite sample root mean squared error as well as bias. However, the optimal jackknife weights rely on knowledge of the near-unit root parameter, which is typically unknown in practice, and so an alternative, feasible, jackknife estimator is proposed which achieves the intended bias reduction but does not rely on knowledge of this parameter. This feasible jackknife estimator is also capable of substantial bias and root mean squared error reductions in finite samples across a range of values of the near-unit root parameter and across different sample sizes

Continuously Updated Indirect Inference in Heteroskedastic Spatial Models

Spatial units typically vary over many of their characteristics, introducing potential unobserved heterogeneity which invalidates commonly used homoskedasticity conditions. In the presence of unobserved heteroskedasticity, methods based on the quasi-likelihood function generally produce inconsistent estimates of both the spatial parameter and the coefficients of the exogenous regressors. A robust generalized method of moments estimator as well as a modified likelihood method have been proposed in the literature to address this issue. The present paper constructs an alternative indirect inference (II) approach which relies on a simple ordinary least squares procedure as its starting point. Heteroskedasticity is accommodated by utilizing a new version of continuous updating that is applied within the II procedure to take account of the parameterization of the variance\u2013covariance matrix of the disturbances. Finite-sample performance of the new estimator is assessed in a Monte Carlo study. The approach is implemented in an empirical application to house price data in the Boston area, where it is found that spatial effects in house price determination are much more significant under robustification to heterogeneity in the equation errors

Financial Integration in the GCC Region: Market Size Versus National Effects

© 2019, The Author(s). This paper examines financial spillovers between the four largest equity markets (by market capitalization) in the GCC region using a VAR-GARCH (1,1) framework that sheds light on interdependence as well as the effects of the 2014 oil crisis. Since the UAE is a federation including two stock exchanges (Abu Dhabi and Dubai), it is possible to test whether being part of a federal union matters more than market size in terms of financial integration. Our results suggest that the latter is more important, since we could not find evidence of stronger linkages between the Abu Dhabi and Dubai markets compared to those between other markets in the region. By contrast, there are significant spillover effects, both in the mean and in the volatility, from the largest market of Saudi Arabia to Qatar and the two markets in the UAE, which confirms that market capitalization is a more important determinant of financial integration than belonging to a federal union. Further, spillovers from the larger markets have become stronger as a result of the 2014 oil crisis. Finally, there is also evidence of spillovers from the smaller to the larger markets

An evaluation of the Writing Assessment Measure (WAM) for children's narrative writing

AbstractThe study evaluated the reliability and validity of the Writing Assessment Measure (WAM), developed to reflect the skills which children of different abilities are expected to achieve in written expression, as part of the National Curriculum guidelines in England and Wales. The focus was on its potential use in investigations of children's written narrative in order to inform and target related interventions. The study involved 97 children aged 7–11 from one urban primary school in England. Prompt 1 was administered to all the children in their classrooms together with a standardised written expression test. After three weeks, the same procedure was followed and Prompt 2 was administered. Statistical analyses of the reliability and validity of the instrument showed that it is consistent over time and can be scored reliably by different raters. Content validity of the instrument was demonstrated through inspection of item total correlations which were all significant. Analyses for concurrent validity showed that the instrument correlates significantly with the Wechsler Written Expressive Language sub-test. Significant differences between children of different age and writing skill were also found. The findings indicate that the instrument has potential utility to professionals assessing children's writing

FACTITIOUS HYPOGLYCAEMIA: A CASE REPORT AND LITERATURE REVIEW

Background: Factitious hypoglycaemia is a form of factitious disorder imposed on self with high morbidity and mortality. It is therefore important to be aware of the key demographic and contextual risk factors for factitious hypoglycaemia, as well the investigations and management options available for suspected cases. Subjects and methods: In this article we describe a case report and literature review of factitious hypoglycaemia. The search was conducted using the PubMed database and identified 23 case reports of 31 patients aged 18 or over with insulin-induced factitious hypoglycaemia. Results: The average age of these patients was 33.7 (±13.5) years, the female: male ratio was 4.3:1, 38% had medical occupations or past medical training, 53% had diabetes mellitus, and 41% had a positive psychiatric history. Misdiagnoses were common and often resulted in inappropriate treatment. Very few cases discussed psychiatric management. Conclusions: Factitious hypoglycaemia is more commonly reported in middle-aged females, in a medical profession, with a past medical history of diabetes mellitus and psychiatric illness. However, it may affect a variety of patients and the absence of these features should not discourage a diagnosis. C-peptide levels and insulin assays can help identify factitious hypoglycaemia over other causes of hypoglycaemia, and management should include a greater focus on psychiatric treatment

Soft Networks and Emergent Topographies

Research focuses on mapping of liminal space along the Buffer Zone of Nicosia and its emerging urban identity that is revealed through documentation of inhabitation patterns over time. The process of seeing activities from the ground, through mapping and collage, expose the complex and often-invisible layers of information that exist. These processes of re-reading extend and enrich our interaction with the specific conditions of the site; the slow and seemingly insignificant and ‘unseen’ organic evolution of the site is acknowledged as a strong part of its identity. Based on premise that transformation of space provokes public action, the investigation is concerned with the search for emerging and shifting topographies. Research establishes mechanisms for discovery spaces of transformation these exist at the level of landscape, and very particular conditions of forgotten edges and points of contact with the urban environment

Chemical Eustress Elicits Tailored Responses and Enhances the Functional Quality of Novel Food Perilla frutescens

Consumer demand for fresh and functional horticultural products is on the rise. Perilla frutescens, L. Britt (Lamiaceae) is a potential specialty/niche crop for consumption and therapeutic uses with high contents of phenolic and volatile compounds. Plant growth, mineral composition, polyphenol profile and aroma volatile components of two perilla genotypes in response to salinity (non-salt control, 10, 20 or 30 mM NaCl) applied as chemical eustressor were assessed. Salinity suppressed growth and yield of both genotypes, although the red-pigmented genotype was less sensitive than the green-pigmented one. Mild (10 mM NaCl) and moderate (20 and 30 mM NaCl) salinity suppressed foliar potassium, magnesium, nitrate and chlorophyll a concentrations of both genotypes and increased the levels of rosmarinic acid, total polyphenols and target aroma volatilecomponents. Greenperillashowedhigheryieldandbiomassproductionandhighercontentof protein,drymatter,calcium,magnesium,perillaketoneandcis-jasmone,whereasredperillaexhibited higher content of potassium, chlorophyll a, rosmarinic acid, total polyphenols, perilla aldehyde and benzaldehyde. Ourfindingssupportthatchemicaleustressorssuchasmildtomoderatesalinityoffer valuable means to manipulate phytochemical and aroma profiles