Capital process and optimality properties of a Bayesian Skeptic in coin-tossing games

We study capital process behavior in the fair-coin game and biased-coin games in the framework of the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that if Skeptic uses a Bayesian strategy with a beta prior, the capital process is lucidly expressed in terms of the past average of Reality's moves. From this it is proved that the Skeptic's Bayesian strategy weakly forces the strong law of large numbers (SLLN) with the convergence rate of O(\sqrt{\log n/n})$ and if Reality violates SLLN then the exponential growth rate of the capital process is very accurately described in terms of the Kullback divergence between the average of Reality's moves when she violates SLLN and the average when she observes SLLN. We also investigate optimality properties associated with Bayesian strategy

Game-theoretic versions of strong law of large numbers for unbounded variables

We consider strong law of large numbers (SLLN) in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove several versions of SLLN for the case that Reality's moves are unbounded. Our game-theoretic versions of SLLN largely correspond to standard measure-theoretic results. However game-theoretic proofs are different from measure-theoretic ones in the explicit consideration of various hedges. In measure-theoretic proofs existence of moments are assumed, whereas in our game-theoretic proofs we assume availability of various hedges to Skeptic for finite prices

Shimanto geosyncline and Kuroshio paleoland

The late Mesozoic to early Neogene geosyncline in the Outer zone of Southwest Japan has been studied in detail in the Kii Peninsula by the Research Group for the Shimanto Geosyncline. The existence of the Kuroshio Paleoland to the south of the geosyncline was inferred by various sedimentologic evidences. The Shimanto belt in the Kii Peninsula is divided from north to south into three zones of Cretaceous, Eocene and Oligocene to lower Miocene. In these belts thick geosynclinal sediments were accumulated showing coarsening upward. The southward migration of the basin occurred in Cretaceous/Eocene, Eocene/Oligocene, and in early Miocene. In the present paper the reconstruction of paleogeography of the Shimanto geosyncline was attempted and the Kuroshio Paleoland was discussed in relation to the geohistory of the Philippine Sea. In spite of the detailed geologic survey in the Kii Peninsula there is no evidence of large exotic blocks nor tectonic mélanges, and this does not support the plate tectonic model ofthe Pacific-type orogeny for the Shimanto belt.ArticleJournal of Physics of the Earth. 26(suppl):357-366 (1978)journal articl

New procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales

We propose procedures for testing whether stock price processes are martingales based on limit order type betting strategies. We first show that the null hypothesis of martingale property of a stock price process can be tested based on the capital process of a betting strategy. In particular with high frequency Markov type strategies we find that martingale null hypotheses are rejected for many stock price processes

SHIMANTO GEOSYNCLINE AND KUROSHIO PALEOLAND

The late Mesozoic to early Neogene geosyncline in the Outer zone of Southwest Japan has been studied in detail in the Kii Peninsula by the Research Group for the Shimanto Geosyncline. The existence of the Kuroshio Paleoland to the south of the geosyncline was inferred by various sedimentologic evidences. The Shimanto belt in the Kii Peninsula is divided from north to south into three zones of Cretaceous, Eocene and Oligocene to lower Miocene. In these belts thick geosynclinal sediments were accumulated showing coarsening upward. The southward migration of the basin occurred in Cretaceous/Eocene, Eocene/Oligocene, and in early Miocene. In the present paper the reconstruction of paleogeography of the Shimanto geosyncline was attempted and the Kuroshio Paleoland was discussed in relation to the geohistory of the Philippine Sea. In spite of the detailed geologic survey in the Kii Peninsula there is no evidence of large exotic blocks nor tectonic mélanges, and this does not support the plate tectonic model ofthe Pacific-type orogeny for the Shimanto belt.ArticleJournal of Physics of the Earth. 26(suppl):357-366 (1978)journal articl

Serum amyloid A primes microglia for ATP-dependent interleukin-1\u3b2 release

Acute-phase response is a systemic reaction to environmental/inflammatory insults and involves production of acute-phase proteins, including serum amyloid A (SAA). Interleukin-1\u3b2 (IL-1\u3b2), a master regulator of neuroinflammation produced by activated inflammatory cells of the myeloid lineage, in particular microglia, plays a key role in the pathogenesis of acute and chronic diseases of the peripheral nervous system and CNS. IL-1\u3b2 release is promoted by ATP acting at the purinergic P2X7 receptor (P2X7R) in cells primed with toll-like receptor (TLR) ligands

Expression and Differential Responsiveness of Central Nervous System Glial Cell Populations to the Acute Phase Protein Serum Amyloid A

Acute-phase response is a systemic reaction to environmental/inflammatory insults and involves hepatic production of acute-phase proteins, including serum amyloid A (SAA). Extrahepatically, SAA immunoreactivity is found in axonal myelin sheaths of cortex in Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis (MS), although its cellular origin is unclear. We examined the responses of cultured rat cortical astrocytes, microglia and oligodendrocyte precursor cells (OPCs) to master pro-inflammatory cytokine tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-\u3b1 and lipopolysaccaride (LPS). TNF-\u3b1 time-dependently increased Saa1 (but not Saa3) mRNA expression in purified microglia, enriched astrocytes, and OPCs (as did LPS for microglia and astrocytes). Astrocytes depleted of microglia were markedly less responsive to TNF-\u3b1 and LPS, even after re-addition of microglia. Microglia and enriched astrocytes showed complementary Saa1 expression profiles following TNF-\u3b1 or LPS challenge, being higher in microglia with TNF-\u3b1 and higher in astrocytes with LPS. Recombinant human apo-SAA stimulated production of both inflammatory mediators and its own mRNA in microglia and enriched, but not microglia-depleted astrocytes. Co-ultramicronized palmitoylethanolamide/luteolin, an established anti-inflammatory/neuroprotective agent, reduced Saa1 expression in OPCs subjected to TNF-\u3b1 treatment. These last data, together with past findings suggest that co-ultramicronized palmitoylethanolamide/luteolin may be a novel approach in the treatment of inflammatory demyelinating disorders like MS

WNT signalling in prostate cancer

Genome sequencing and gene expression analyses of prostate tumours have highlighted the potential importance of genetic and epigenetic changes observed in WNT signalling pathway components in prostate tumours-particularly in the development of castration-resistant prostate cancer. WNT signalling is also important in the prostate tumour microenvironment, in which WNT proteins secreted by the tumour stroma promote resistance to therapy, and in prostate cancer stem or progenitor cells, in which WNT-β-catenin signals promote self-renewal or expansion. Preclinical studies have demonstrated the potential of inhibitors that target WNT receptor complexes at the cell membrane or that block the interaction of β-catenin with lymphoid enhancer-binding factor 1 and the androgen receptor, in preventing prostate cancer progression. Some WNT signalling inhibitors are in phase I trials, but they have yet to be tested in patients with prostate cancer

The Acute Phase Protein Serum Amyloid A Induces Lipolysis and Inflammation in Human Adipocytes through Distinct Pathways

Background: The acute phase response (APR) is characterized by alterations in lipid and glucose metabolism leading to an increased delivery of energy substrates. In adipocytes, there is a coordinated decrease in Free Fatty acids (FFAs) and glucose storage, in addition to an increase in FFAs mobilization. Serum Amyloid A (SAA) is an acute phase protein mainly associated with High Density Lipoproteins (HDL). We hypothesized that enrichment of HDL with SAA, during the APR, could be implicated in the metabolic changes occurring in adipocytes. Methodology/Principal Findings: In vitro differentiated human adipocytes (hMADS) were treated with SAA enriched HDL or recombinant SAA and the metabolic phenotype of the cells analyzed. In hMADS, SAA induces an increased lipolysis through an ERK dependent pathway. At the molecular level, SAA represses PPARc2, C/EBPa and SREBP-1c gene expression, three transcription factors involved in adipocyte differentiation or lipid synthesis. In addition, the activation of the NF-kB pathway by SAA leads to the induction of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines, as in the case of immune cells. These latter findings were replicated in freshly isolated mature human adipocytes. Conclusions/Significance: Besides its well-characterized role in cholesterol metabolism, SAA has direct metabolic effects on human adipocytes. These metabolic changes could be at least partly responsible for alterations of adipocyte metabolism observed during the APR as well as during pathophysiological conditions such as obesity and conditions leading to insuli