Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.

Outbreaks of Ebola virus can cause substantial morbidity and mortality in affected regions. The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014. To develop a better understanding of Ebola transmission dynamics, we revisited data from the first known Ebola outbreak, which occurred in 1976 in Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo). By fitting a mathematical model to time series stratified by disease onset, outcome and source of infection, we were able to estimate several epidemiological quantities that have previously proved challenging to measure, including the contribution of hospital and community infection to transmission. We found evidence that transmission decreased considerably before the closure of the hospital, suggesting that the decline of the outbreak was most likely the result of changes in host behaviour. Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak. Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance. At the same time, the relatively high person-to-person basic reproduction number suggests that Ebola would have been difficult to control through hospital-based infection control measures alone

Bias correction methods for test-negative designs in the presence of misclassification.

The test-negative design (TND) has become a standard approach for vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. However, previous studies suggested that it may be more vulnerable than other designs to misclassification of disease outcome caused by imperfect diagnostic tests. This could be a particular limitation in VE studies where simple tests (e.g. rapid influenza diagnostic tests) are used for logistical convenience. To address this issue, we derived a mathematical representation of the TND with imperfect tests, then developed a bias correction framework for possible misclassification. TND studies usually include multiple covariates other than vaccine history to adjust for potential confounders; our methods can also address multivariate analyses and be easily coupled with existing estimation tools. We validated the performance of these methods using simulations of common scenarios for vaccine efficacy and were able to obtain unbiased estimates in a variety of parameter settings

The Large-Scale Climate in Response to the Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Based upon coupled climate simulations driven by present-day conditions and conditions resembling the Marine Isotope Stage 31 (this simulation is called WICE-EXP), insofar as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) configuration is concerned, it is demonstrated that changes in the WAIS orography lead to noticeable changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulations. Compared with the present-day climate, WICE-EXP is characterized by warmer conditions in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) by up to 5°C in the polar oceans and up to 2°C in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). These changes feed back on the atmospheric circulation weakening (strengthening) the extratropical westerlies in the SH (northern Atlantic). Calculations of the southern annular mode (SAM) show that modification of the WAIS induces warmer conditions and a northward shift of the westerly flow; in particular, there is a clear weakening of the polar jet. These changes lead to modification of the rate of deep water formation, reducing the magnitude of the North Atlantic Deep Water but enhancing the Antarctic Bottom Water. By evaluating the density flux it is found that the thermal density flux has played a main role in the modification of the meridional overturning circulation. Moreover, the climate anomalies between the WICE-EXP and the present-day simulations resemble a bipolar seesaw pattern. These results are in good agreement with paleorecontructions in the framework of the Ocean Drilling Program and Antarctic Geological Drilling (ANDRILL) project

Chemical modification of glass surface with a monolayer of nonchromophoric and chromophoric methacrylate terpolymer

The methacrylate terpolymers, a nonchromophoric and chromophoric one, containing 2-hydroxyethyl groups were reacted with 3-isocyanatopropyltriethoxysilane to obtain reactive polymers able to form covalent bonding with –SiOH groups of the glass surface via triethoxysilane group condensation. Chemical modification of the Corning 2949 glass plates treated in this way resulted in increase of wetting angle from 11° to ca. 70–73°. Determination of ellipsometric parameters revealed low value of the substrate refractive index as compared with that of bulk Corning 2949 glass suggesting roughness of the surface. The AFM image of the bare glass surface and that modified with terpolymer monolayer confirmed this phenomenon. Modification of the glass with the terpolymer monolayer made it possible to create the substrate surface well suited for deposition of familiar chromophore film by spin-coating. The chromophore polymer film deposited onto the modified glass surface was found to be resistant to come unstuck in aqueous solution

Real-time dynamic modelling for the design of a cluster-randomized phase 3 Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Declining incidence and spatial heterogeneity complicated the design of phase 3 Ebola vaccine trials during the tail of the 2013-16 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa. Mathematical models can provide forecasts of expected incidence through time and can account for both vaccine efficacy in participants and effectiveness in populations. Determining expected disease incidence was critical to calculating power and determining trial sample size. METHODS: In real-time, we fitted, forecasted, and simulated a proposed phase 3 cluster-randomized vaccine trial for a prime-boost EVD vaccine in three candidate regions in Sierra Leone. The aim was to forecast trial feasibility in these areas through time and guide study design planning. RESULTS: EVD incidence was highly variable during the epidemic, especially in the declining phase. Delays in trial start date were expected to greatly reduce the ability to discern an effect, particularly as a trial with an effective vaccine would cause the epidemic to go extinct more quickly in the vaccine arm. Real-time updates of the model allowed decision-makers to determine how trial feasibility changed with time. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis was useful for vaccine trial planning because we simulated effectiveness as well as efficacy, which is possible with a dynamic transmission model. It contributed to decisions on choice of trial location and feasibility of the trial. Transmission models should be utilised as early as possible in the design process to provide mechanistic estimates of expected incidence, with which decisions about sample size, location, timing, and feasibility can be determined

Comparative Evaluation of the Hemodynamic Effects of Oral Cimetidine, Ranitidine, and Famotidine as Determined by Echocardiography

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90052/1/j.1875-9114.1995.tb04349.x.pd

Towards a unified generic framework to define and observe contacts between livestock and wildlife: a systematic review

Wild animals are the source of many pathogens of livestock and humans. Concerns about the potential transmission of economically important and zoonotic diseases from wildlife have led to increased surveillance at the livestock-wildlife interface. Knowledge of the types, frequency and duration of contacts between livestock and wildlife is necessary to identify risk factors for disease transmission and to design possible mitigation strategies. Observing the behaviour of many wildlife species is challenging due to their cryptic nature and avoidance of humans, meaning there are relatively few studies in this area. Further, a consensus on the definition of what constitutes a ‘contact’ between wildlife and livestock is lacking. A systematic review was conducted to investigate which livestock-wildlife contacts have been studied and why, as well as the methods used to observe each species. Over 30,000 publications were screened, of which 122 fulfilled specific criteria for inclusion in the analysis. The majority of studies examined cattle contacts with badgers or with deer; studies involving wild pig contacts with cattle or with domestic pigs were the next most frequent. There was a range of observational methods including motion-activated cameras and global positioning system collars. As a result of the wide variation and lack of consensus in the definitions of direct and indirect contacts, we developed a unified framework to define livestock-wildlife contacts that is sufficiently flexible to be applied to most wildlife and livestock species for non-vector-borne diseases. We hope this framework will help standardise the collection and reporting of contact data; a valuable step towards being able to compare the efficacy of wildlife-livestock observation methods. In doing so, it may aid the development of better disease transmission models and improve the design and effectiveness of interventions to reduce or prevent disease transmission

Effective suppression of Dengue virus using a novel group-I intron that induces apoptotic cell death upon infection through conditional expression of the Bax C-terminal domain

Introduction: Approximately 100 million confirmed infections and 20,000 deaths are caused by Dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks annually. Global warming and rapid dispersal have resulted in DENV epidemics in formally non-endemic regions. Currently no consistently effective preventive measures for DENV exist, prompting development of transgenic and paratransgenic vector control approaches. Production of transgenic mosquitoes refractory for virus infection and/or transmission is contingent upon defining antiviral genes that have low probability for allowing escape mutations, and are equally effective against multiple serotypes. Previously we demonstrated the effectiveness of an anti-viral group I intron targeting U143 of the DENV genome in mediating trans-splicing and expression of a marker gene with the capsid coding domain. In this report we examine the effectiveness of coupling expression of ΔN Bax to trans-splicing U143 intron activity as a means of suppressing DENV infection of mosquito cells. Results: Targeting the conserved DENV circularization sequence (CS) by U143 intron trans-splicing activity appends a 3’ exon RNA encoding ΔN Bax to the capsid coding region of the genomic RNA, resulting in a chimeric protein that induces premature cell death upon infection. TCID50-IFA analyses demonstrate an enhancement of DENV suppression for all DENV serotypes tested over the identical group I intron coupled with the non-apoptotic inducing firefly luciferase as the 3’ exon. These cumulative results confirm the increased effectiveness of this αDENV-U143-ΔN Bax group I intron as a sequence specific antiviral that should be useful for suppression of DENV in transgenic mosquitoes. Annexin V staining, caspase 3 assays, and DNA ladder observations confirm DCA-ΔN Bax fusion protein expression induces apoptotic cell death. Conclusion: This report confirms the relative effectiveness of an anti-DENV group I intron coupled to an apoptosis-inducing ΔN Bax 3’ exon that trans-splices conserved sequences of the 5’ CS region of all DENV serotypes and induces apoptotic cell death upon infection. Our results confirm coupling the targeted ribozyme capabilities of the group I intron with the generation of an apoptosis-inducing transcript increases the effectiveness of infection suppression, improving the prospects of this unique approach as a means of inducing transgenic refractoriness in mosquitoes for all serotypes of this important disease

Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus

Since its emergence in 1968, influenza A (H3N2) has evolved extensively in genotype and antigenic phenotype. Antigenic evolution occurs in the context of a two-dimensional 'antigenic map', while genetic evolution shows a characteristic ladder-like genealogical tree. Here, we use a large-scale individual-based model to show that evolution in a Euclidean antigenic space provides a remarkable correspondence between model behavior and the epidemiological, antigenic, genealogical and geographic patterns observed in influenza virus. We find that evolution away from existing human immunity results in rapid population turnover in the influenza virus and that this population turnover occurs primarily along a single antigenic axis. Thus, selective dynamics induce a canalized evolutionary trajectory, in which the evolutionary fate of the influenza population is surprisingly repeatable and hence, in theory, predictable.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures, 10 supporting figure

Direct in situ spectroscopic evidence of the crucial role played by surface oxygen vacancies in the O2-sensing mechanism of SnO2

NAP-XPS characterisation of SnO2 under operando conditions shows that resistance change, band bending and surface O-vacancy concentration are correlated with ambient O2 concentration, challenging current preconceptions of gas sensor function