Application of multi-agent simulation to evaluate the influence of reservoir operation strategies on the distribution of water availability in the semi-arid Jaguaribe basin, Brazil

Studying the processes responsible for the distribution of water resources in a river basin over space and time is of great importance for spatial planning. In this study a multi-agent simulation approach is applied for exploring the influence of alternative reservoir operation strategies on water use distribution in the semi-arid Jaguaribe basin in case of decreasing rainfall. Water use distribution is analyzed both for one specific subbasin – our study area – and for the river basin level. Agents in this study are farmers that adapt to local variations in water availability. In this way both natural and human influences on water availability are taken into account. This study shows that a decrease in rainfall and runoff in the Jaguaribe basin leads to a transition of water use from the dry season to the wet season. The dry season water use decreases because of reduced water availability in the dry season. This mainly is the result of reduced rainfall and runoff in the wet season and the consequent increased water use for irrigation in the wet season. A decrease in rainfall and runoff also leads to a relative transition of water use from downstream to upstream at the basin scale. Strategic reservoir operation enables local water managers to offset the effect of decreasing rainfall and runoff with regards to water use at the subbasin level, at the cost of further decreasing water availability at the basin level

Analysis of long-term terrestrial water storage variations in Yangtze River basin

In this study, we analyze 32 yr of TWS data obtained from Interim Reanalysis Data (ERA-Interim) and Noah model from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-Noah) for the period between 1979 and 2010. The accuracy of these datasets is validated against 26 yr (1979–2004) of runoff dataset from Yichang gauging station and compared to 32 yr of independent precipitation data obtained from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Reanalysis Version 6 (GPCC) and NOAA's PRECipitation REConstruction over Land (PREC/L). Spatial and temporal analysis of the TWS data shows that TWS in the Yangtze River basin is decreasing significantly since the year 1998. The driest period of the basin is noted from 2005 to 2010, especially in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches. The TWS changed abruptly into persistently high negative anomalies in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches in 2004. From both basin and annual perspectives, 2006 is detected as the major inflection point at which the system exhibits a persistent decrease in TWS. Comparing these TWS trends to independent precipitation datasets shows that the recent decrease in TWS can mainly be attributed to a decrease in precipitation amount. Our finding is based on observation and modeling data sets and confirms previous results based on gauging station datasets