Prediction of hospital bed capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: Prediction of the necessary capacity of beds by ward type (e.g. ICU) is essential for planning purposes during epidemics, such as the COVID− 19 pandemic. The COVID− 19 taskforce within the Ghent University hospital made use of ten-day forecasts on the required number of beds for COVID− 19 patients across different wards. Methods: The planning tool combined a Poisson model for the number of newly admitted patients on each day with a multistate model for the transitions of admitted patients to the different wards, discharge or death. These models were used to simulate the required capacity of beds by ward type over the next 10 days, along with worst-case and best-case bounds. Results: Overall, the models resulted in good predictions of the required number of beds across different hospital wards. Short-term predictions were especially accurate as these are less sensitive to sudden changes in number of beds on a given ward (e.g. due to referrals). Code snippets and details on the set-up are provided to guide the reader to apply the planning tool on one’s own hospital data. Conclusions: We were able to achieve a fast setup of a planning tool useful within the COVID− 19 pandemic, with a fair prediction on the needed capacity by ward type. This methodology can also be applied for other epidemics

Effectiveness of step-down versus outpatient dialectical behaviour therapy for patients with severe levels of borderline personality disorder

__Background:__ Step-down dialectical behaviour therapy (DBT) is a treatment consisting of 3 months of residential DBT plus 6 months of outpatient DBT. The program was specifically developed for people suffering from severe borderline personality disorder (BPD). The present study examines the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of stepdown DBT compared to 12 months of regular, outpatient DBT. __Methods:__ Eighty-four participants reporting high levels of BPD-symptoms (mean age 26 years, 95% female) were randomly assigned to step-down versus standard DBT. Measurements were conducted at baseline and after 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. The Lifetime Parasuicide Count and BPD Severity Index (BPDSI) were used to assess suicidal behaviour, non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and borderline severity. Costs per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) were calculated using data from the EQ-5D-3L and the Treatment Inventory Cost in Psychiatric Patients (TIC-P). __Results:__ In step-down DBT, 95% of patients started the program, compared to 45% of patients in outpatient DBT. The probability of suicidal behaviour did not change significantly over 12 months. The probability of NSSI decreased significantly in step-down DBT, but not in outpatient DBT. BPDSI decreased significantly in both groups, with the improvement leveling off at the end of treatment. While step-down DBT was more effective in increasing quality of life, it also cost significantly more. The extra costs per gained QALY exceeded the €80,000 threshold that is considered acceptable for severely ill patients in the Netherlands. __Conclusions:__ A pragmatic randomized controlled trial in the Netherlands showed that 9 months of step-down DBT is an effective treatment for people suffering from severe levels of BPD. However, step-down DBT is not more effective than 12 months of outpatient DBT, nor is it more cost-effective. These findings should be considered tentative because of high noncompliance with the treatment assignment in outpatient DBT. Furthermore, the longterm effectiveness of step-down DBT, and moderators of treatment response, remain to be evaluated

The complex and dynamic interplay between self-esteem, belongingness and physical activity in daily life:An experience sampling study in adolescence and young adulthood

Physical activity has positive effects on self-esteem and sense of belongingness and vice versa. The experience sampling method allows for a level of analysis of the within-subject temporal dynamics of these interactions. We hypothesized that physical activity would predict prospective increases of self-esteem and belongingness in the flow of daily life, and vice versa. Additionally, we hypothesized that belongingness would predict self-esteem at the beep level. The study included 781 individuals (17.4 +/- 3.5 years; 59% female) who responded to 10 beeps daily for 6 days to items on physical activity, self-esteem and belongingness. Univariate and multivariate multilevel models were used to examine within-person prospective bidirectional associations. We found that physical activity predicted higher self-esteem and belongingness at t0+1. Participants who had a stronger increase of self-esteem following an increase in physical activity also had a concurrent stronger increase in belongingness. In contrast, self-esteem had no effect on physical activity at the next beep. Belongingness predicted self-esteem. We conclude that the interactions between physical activity, self-esteem and belongingness are complex and fluctuating in daily life. This has important implications for current theories describing the mental health benefits of physical activity

A Mixed Model to Disentangle Variance and Serial Autocorrelation in Affective Instability Using Ecological Momentary Assessment Data

<p>Affective instability, the tendency to experience emotions that fluctuate frequently and intensively over time, is a core feature of several mental disorders including borderline personality disorder. Currently, affect is often measured with Ecological Momentary Assessment protocols, which yield the possibility to quantify the instability of affect over time. A number of linear mixed models are proposed to examine (diagnostic) group differences in affective instability. The models contribute to the existing literature by estimating simultaneously both the variance and serial dependency component of affective instability when observations are unequally spaced in time with the serial autocorrelation (or emotional inertia) declining as a function of the time interval between observations. In addition, the models can eliminate systematic trends, take between subject differences into account and test for (diagnostic) group differences in serial autocorrelation, short-term as well as long-term affective variability. The usefulness of the models is illustrated in a study on diagnostic group differences in affective instability in the domain of eating disorders. Limitations of the model are that they pertain to group (and not individual) differences and do not focus explicitly on circadian rhythms or cycles in affect.</p

Randomized comparison of ultra-brief bifrontal and unilateral electroconvulsive therapy for major depression: cognitive side-effects

OBJECTIVE: The cognitive side-effects of bifrontal (BF) and right unilateral (UL) ultra-brief pulse (0.3 ms) electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) were compared, in the treatment of patients with a depressive episode. METHOD: Neuropsychological functioning in patients with a medication refractory depressive episode, that were treated with a course of BF ultra-brief ECT at 1.5 times seizure threshold (ST) or UL ultra-brief ECT at 6 times ST, by random assignment, was assessed before treatment, and 1 and 6 weeks after the treatment course, by a blinded rater. RESULTS: Of the 64 patients that were included, 32 (50%) received BF ECT, and 32 (50%) received UL ECT, by random assignment. Neuropsychological testing 1 and 6 weeks after treatment was performed by 30 (93.75%) and 19 (59.37%) patients, respectively, in the BF-group and 29 (90.62%) and 20 (62.50%), respectively, in the UL-group. There was no deterioration in any of the neuropsychological measures. Patients rated their memory as clearly improved after treatment. There were no significant differences between the patients given BF ECT and those given UL ECT. CONCLUSIONS: Ultrabrief pulse ECT, used either in combination with a UL electrode position and a stimulus of 6 times ST, or a BF electrode position with a stimulus of 1.5 times ST, are effective antidepressant techniques, that do not have a deleterious effect on cognitive function.status: publishe

Ultra-brief pulse ECT in bipolar and unipolar depressive disorder: differences in speed of response

OBJECTIVES: There is little evidence for differences in response and speed of response to electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) between patients with bipolar and patients with unipolar depressive disorder. In the only prospective study to date, Daly et al. (Bipolar Disord 2001; 3: 95-104) found patients with bipolar depression to show more rapid clinical improvement and require fewer treatments than unipolar patients. In this study, response and speed of response of patients with unipolar and bipolar depression treated with ultra-brief pulse ECT were compared. METHODS: All patients (n = 64) participated in a randomized trial comparing ultra-brief pulse bifrontal ECT at 1.5 times seizure threshold and unilateral ECT at 6 times seizure threshold. Thirteen patients (20.3%) had DSM-IV-defined bipolar depression. The Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression and Clinical Global Impression scale were administered at baseline and repeated weekly during and after the course of treatment by a blinded rater. At the same time point, the Beck Depression Inventory and the Patient Global Impression scale were administered. Speed of response was analyzed using survival analyses. RESULTS: Patients with bipolar and unipolar depression did not differ in rates of response or remission following the ECT course, nor in response to unilateral or bifrontal ECT. Patients with bipolar depression, however, showed a more rapid response than patients with unipolar depression. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with bipolar depression tend to show more rapid clinical improvement with ECT than patients with unipolar depression.status: publishe

Randomized comparison of ultra-brief bifrontal and unilateral electroconvulsive therapy for major depression: clinical efficacy

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) with an ultra-brief pulse width in combination with a bilateral electrode placement has diminished antidepressive efficacy, as compared to unilateral ultra-brief pulse ECT. OBJECTIVE: The antidepressive efficacy of bifrontal and right unilateral ultra-brief pulse (0.3 ms) ECT were compared. METHOD: Eighty-one patients with a medication refractory depressive episode were treated with a course of bifrontal ultra-brief pulse ECT at 1.5 times seizure threshold or unilateral ultra-brief pulse ECT at 6 times seizure threshold by random assignment. The 17 item-Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD), Beck Depression Inventory, Clinical Global Impression and Patient Global Impression were administered at baseline and repeated weekly during and 1 and 6 weeks after the course, by a blinded rater. RESULTS: 64/81 patients (79%) completed the study, half of which were treated with bifrontal ECT. At the end of the course, 78.1% of the BF group and 78.1% of the UL group responded, whereas, 34.38% (N=11) of the BF group and 43.75% (N=14) of the UL group achieved strict remission criteria (HRSD-score < or = 7). There were no significant differences between the patients given bifrontal ECT and those given unilateral ECT, although patients receiving unilateral ECT achieved response/remission-criteria after a smaller number of treatments. LIMITATIONS: Relatively small number of subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Using an ultra-brief pulse width, both BF and UL-ECT are efficacious, although patients receiving UL-ECT achieve response/remission-criteria after a smaller number of treatments. TRIAL REGISTRY: http://www.controlled-trials.com/ REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN56570426.status: publishe

Medication-Induced Akathisia with Newly Approved Antipsychotics in Patients with a Severe Mental Illness: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Akathisia is a common and distressing movement disorder that can be associated with the use of antipsychotics. It is characterized by a subjective (inner restlessness) and an objective (excessive movements) component. Akathisia can have a negative impact on clinical outcome and even lead to treatment discontinuation. Although medication-induced akathisia is more commonly associated with the use of first-generation antipsychotics (FGAs), it also occurs with second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs), including the newly approved antipsychotics (NAPs) asenapine, lurasidone, iloperidone, cariprazine, and brexpiprazole. Until now, no meta-analysis has been published on the risk of akathisia for all NAPs, as monotherapy or adjunctive treatment, in patients with a severe mental illness. OBJECTIVE: The primary objectives of this systematic review and meta-analysis were to (i) compare akathisia incidence rates of the NAPs, as monotherapy or adjunctive treatment, in adult patients with a severe mental illness (i.e., schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or major depressive disorder), using data from published and unpublished randomized controlled trials; and (ii) examine the role of several study characteristics explaining differences in akathisia incidence rates between studies. METHODS: A systematic literature search, using the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases (until October 2018), was conducted for English-language placebo- as well as active-controlled clinical trials, including subjective (percentage of patients reporting akathisia) and/or scale-defined medication-induced akathisia incidence rates with NAPs (as monotherapy or as adjunctive treatment) in adult patients with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or major depressive disorder. Additional unpublished clinical trials were identified through the ClinicalTrials.gov electronic database. Two meta-analyses (incidence rates and odds ratio [OR] [placebo vs. active] of medication-induced akathisia with NAPs) were performed to obtain an optimal estimation of akathisia risks of adult patients with a severe mental illness under these treatment conditions and to assess the role of study characteristics. RESULTS: Two hundred and thirteen reports were selected as potentially eligible for our meta-analysis. Of these, 48 met the inclusion criteria. Eight records, identified through the ClinicalTrials.gov database and cross-referencing, and which fulfilled the inclusion criteria, were added, resulting in a total of 56 records (iloperidone = 5, asenapine = 11, lurasidone = 15, brexpiprazole = 13, cariprazine = 12). The estimated weighted mean incidence rate of akathisia was 7.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5-9.1), with estimates being 3.9% (95% CI 2.4-6.3) for iloperidone, 6.8% (95% CI 5.1-9.0) for asenapine, 10.0% (95% CI 7.4-13.5) for brexpiprazole, 12.7% (95% CI 10.1-16.1) for lurasidone, and 17.2% (95% CI 13.4-22.1) for cariprazine. After Tukey-adjustment for multiple testing, the incidence rate of akathisia was significantly (p < 0.05) lower for iloperidone than for brexpiprazole, lurasidone, and cariprazine. In addition, the incidence rate of akathisia was significantly (p < 0.05) lower for asenapine than for lurasidone and cariprazine. Finally, the incidence rate of akathisia was significantly (p < 0.05) lower for brexpiprazole than for cariprazine. Type of medication (p < 0.0001), diagnosis (p = 0.02), and race (p = 0.0003) significantly explained part of the heterogeneity of the incidence estimates of akathisia between studies. The estimated weighted OR of akathisia under medication, compared with placebo, was 2.43 (95% CI 1.91-3.10). The OR was smallest for iloperidone (OR 1.20; 95% CI 0.42-3.45) and increased for brexpiprazole (OR 2.04; 95% CI 1.09-3.83), asenapine (OR 2.37; 95% CI 1.32-4.27), lurasidone (OR 3.74; 95% CI 2.32-6.02), and cariprazine (OR 4.35; 95% CI 2.80-6.75). Only type of medication (p = 0.03) explained systematic differences in the OR for akathisia between placebo versus active treatment across studies. After Tukey-adjustment for multiple testing, no significant differences between these ORs were found. The severity of akathisia with NAPs generally is mild to moderate, only leading to treatment discontinuation in a minority of cases (< 5%). CONCLUSIONS: The use of a NAP raises the akathisia risk more than two-fold when compared with patients receiving placebo. Although distinctions between the different NAPs were not clear in placebo-controlled trials, the results of our meta-analyses and systematic review generally indicate that these differences more than likely reflect real differences, with iloperidone showing the most and cariprazine showing the least benign akathisia profile. Moreover, due to patient characteristics and methodological issues, incidence rates of akathisia with NAPs found in this meta-analysis may even be an underestimation of true incidence rates.status: publishe