Scenarios for heating and cooling demand in the European residential sector until 2030

For various planning and policy issues the estimation of future development of heating and cooling demand is of great importance. In this paper we provide exemplary model results for the development of heating and cooling demand for 31 European countries which have been developed in the project Mapping and analyses for the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel development. (See Fleiter, T.; Steinbach, J.; Ragwitz et.al.). Within this article we focus on the analysis of relevafornt indicators such as the development of total heat demand, specific heat demand per m2, shares of the end use categories space heating, water heating and space cooling as well as renewable shares and CO2 emissions. Additionally to the descriptive part of this study in which we want to provide a snapshot on heating and cooling demand in the European Heating and cooling demand we also discuss potentials for additional CO2 reduction potentials of the residential building stock

Status Quo of the Air-Conditioning Market in Europe: Assessment of the Building Stock

This study fills in knowledge gaps for the European air-conditioning (AC) market, which is fundamentally important to raising awareness about primary energy utilization. In contrast to space heating (SH) and domestic hot water (DHW) preparation, the European Union (EU) AC market is barely explored in scientific literature. While the focus of previous research has been on the residential sector, a shortfall of data for the services (wholesale and retail, offices, education, health, hotels and bars) exists. In this paper, data describing the actual space cooling (SC) market in Europe (quantity of SC units, equivalent full-load hours, installed capacities, seasonal energy efficiency values as well as cooled floor area per AC type and/or sector) is collected and explored using a bottom-up approach. Results indicate that SC is responsible for a significant portion of EU electricity consumption in households (nearly 5%) and even more in the service sector (~13%). Energy consumption for SC in the EU28 appears to be more than 140 TWh/y. The quantification of the European AC consumption shows a significant difference between the service and residential sectors: about 115 versus 25 TWh/y respectively. The SC market in Europe is characterized by a high potential for growth, especially in households.We would like to convey our deepest appreciation to the Horizon 2020 Hotmaps Project (Grant Agreement No. 723677), which provided the funding to carry out the present investigation. We are thankful to Pierre Iachetti (Eurac Research), who edited the entire text of the present investigation. Finally, our gratitude goes to Amy Segata (Eurac Research) for designing the graphs of this study.Peer Reviewe

Comprehensive Assessment of the Potential for Efficient District Heating and Cooling and for High-Efficient Cogeneration in Austria

In accordance with the EU Energy Efficiency Directive all Member States have to develop a comprehensive assessment of the potential for high-efficient CHP and efficient district heating and cooling by the end of 2015. This paper describes the approach and methodology used to determine the district heating potentials for Austria. In a first step actual and future heating and cooling demand in the building sector is evaluated using the techno-economic bottom-up model Invert/EE-Lab. Relevant infrastructure probably existing in 2025 is investigated and included into the analysis. Technical potentials for efficient technologies are calculated. After a classification of relevant regions into main and secondary regions a country-level cost-benefit-analysis is performed. The results indicate that there is a reasonable additional potential for district heating by the year 2025 under our central scenario assumptions and within sensitivity scenarios. Only in scenarios with high CO2-price or low gas price, CHP is an economically efficient solution to supply district heat

Spatial analysis of renewable and excess heat potentials for climate-neutral district heating in Europe

District heating can play a decisive role in the transformation to a climate-neutral building sector, replacing fossil fuels. Renewable and excess heat potentials for district heating are often spatially limited and a consistent EU-wide analysis of the potentials is not yet available. In this paper, we quantify the renewable and excess heat potentials that could supply future district heating areas for the entire EU. We combine different data sets with a high spatial resolution and conduct spatial matching. Subsequently, we cluster the results for the potentials for individual district heating areas to derive representative types. The results show that the renewable and excess heat potentials together with heat pumps are overall sufficient to supply the future district heating demand, with high technical potentials from geothermal heat and excess heat from wastewater treatment plants. Decreasing the system temperatures increases the amount of available potentials. Lower heat densities and the overall character of the future supply sources require a paradigm shift in DH systems. Large central CHP units will need to be replaced by a diversity of several smaller sources, often combined with heat pumps and utilized at lower system temperatures

Strategies for a nearly Zero-Energy Building market transition in the European Union

European legislation makes nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEBs) a standard by 2020. The technology is available and proven; however, the large-scale uptake of nZEB construction and renovation remains a challenge. ZEBRA2020 monitored the market uptake of nZEBs across Europe and provided data and knowledge on how to reach the nZEB standard. This information was structured and analysed to derive recommendations. ZEBRA2020 covers 17 European countries and almost 90% of the EU/EEA building stock and population. The online data tools provide unique information regarding nZEB market development and nZEB characteristics. New approaches have been developed in order to allow for a better comparability of national data. However, the absence or difficult accessibility to key data and in particular for non-residential and existing buildings as well as for renovations remains an important obstacle. The online nZEB tracker, based on a set of criteria, assesses the nZEB market maturity. On EU-level, the tracker shows a substantial gap of market maturity that still has to be closed by 2019/2021. A set of barriers and related recommendations have been identified both at national and EU level: The implementation of a common, shared long-term vision for the building stock is crucial. A quantitative comparison of national nZEB definitions is complex due to different system boundaries, calculation methodologies, applied factors etc. However, our analysis indicates that a significant share of nZEB definitions does not meet the intention of the EU directive on energy efficient buildings (EPBD) that the energy consumption should be “nearly zero or very low amount” and the remaining part “should be covered to a very significant extent by energy from renewable sources”. Thus, the new EPBD requires clear definitions of these terms and thresholds. Further, it is important to distinguish between new buildings and renovations – despite of a common nZEB definition for both cases. The nZEB compliance monitoring and sanctions regimes need improvement. Only about half of the covered Member States monitor the compliance of new buildings with energy performance requirements. The lack of professional skills continues to be an important barrier and should remain a focus, especially in case of new built. In many Member States, the reliability and credibility of Energy Performance Certificates (EPC) is often questioned by actors on the real estate market. Transforming EPCs into Building Certificates (“Passes”) for the whole lifetime of a building may increase credibility and serve as a key measure to foster building renovation towards an nZEB standard. Storage of building data in an electronically accessible national database may contribute to better data availability. Energy poverty and vulnerable consumers are a European-wide issue and need further attention. Shifting from fuel subsidy to energy efficiency support is required. Future-proof buildings will be highly-efficient micro energy-hubs consuming, producing, storing and supplying energy. A revised nZEB definition should be future-proofed to be a smart building and district-ready.publishedVersio

Ambition Levels of Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (nZEB) Definitions: An Approach for Cross-Country Comparison

Since buildings account for 40% of total energy consumption and 36% of CO2 emissions in the European Union (EU), the directive 2010/31/EU “Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPDB)” among other legal provisions concerning the reduction of energy consumption of buildings has been enforced. According to this legislation, all new buildings must be nearly zero energy buildings “nZEB” by 31 December 2020 (public buildings by 31 December 2018). Nonetheless, the assessment of the “high energy performance” of a building is ambiguous and a cross country comparison seems to be intricate since different national building codes and nZEB definitions employ different energy indicators and methods. This paper delves into the question of how do the ambition levels of “nZEB” definitions and the transposition of the Directive 2010/31/EU into national law differ in four selected EU Countries: Austria, Germany, Spain, and England (as part of UK). The energy performance of some exemplary buildings is assessed by means of a simplified MATLAB model that is based on the norm DIN V-18599. The results drawn from this work show how diverse are building codes scopes and national “nZEB” definitions. Only 9 of the 36 studied cases of residential buildings obtain consistently the “nZEB” compliance status in all four selected countries. The results show that climate conditions, energy requirements, primary energy factors, ambition levels, and calculation methodologies lead to the problem of an uneven cross-country comparison. Moreover, primary energy consumption [kWh/m2a] set as the main quantitative energy indicator by the directive 2010/31/EU might not be the most suitable one for an EU level comparison

What is the impact of the policy framework on the future of district heating in Eastern European countries? The case of Brasov

The final publication is available via https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2017.12.003.District heating in general is seen as an important opportunity to decarbonise the heating sector especially in urban areas and therefore important to reach European and global climate goals. In this case study we analyse possible future scenarios for the city of Brasov, Romania. Like in many other cities in Eastern Europe a district heating system exists in the city, however, facing severe challenges like old and inefficient infrastructure and loss of consumers due to unreliability of supply over the last decades. This work assesses the impact of different policies on the feasibility of renewable and efficient heating under various conditions and suggests favourable policy frameworks to ensure an economically and ecologically viable future heating system for the city.European Union's Horizon 20207275

Integrated strategic heating and cooling planning on regional level for the case of Brasov

The final publication is available via https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.01.030 .In this work a method for integrated strategic heating and cooling planning applicable for any city or region is presented and applied for the case study city of Brasov. The overall methodology comprises the calculation of the cost-optimal combination of heat savings with either district heating or individual supply technologies for different building groups located in different areas according to the availability of a current district heating network. This optimal combination is calculated for different scenarios and framework conditions, and different indicators like total system costs, total CO2 emissions, share of renewables etc. are calculated and compared to analyse the economic efficiency as well as the CO2 reduction potentials of various options to save heat and supply heat in the buildings. The results of the assessment show that in the assessed case study city heat savings of 58-78% are cheaper than all assessed heat supply options for the different building groups but that renewable supply options are not the most economical alternatives per se under stated conditions. The presented integrated planning process reveals that long term planning is essential to reach decarbonisation goals and that current framework conditions should be adapted to generate more favourable conditions for renewable heating systems