Comparing Individual-Specific Benefit Estimates for Public Goods: Finite Versus Continuous Mixing in Logit Models

Multi-attribute stated preference data, derived through choice experiments, is used to investigate the consequence of a finite number of preference groups in a sample of Yorkshire Water residential customers on the conditional distributions of willingness to pay in the sample. The research focuses on ‘public good’ values, and retrieves the implicit customer specific welfare measures conditional on a sequence of four observed choices. We assess and contrast the sample evidence for the presence of a finite number of 2, 3, 4 and 5 latent preference groups (classes), and contrast these with the presence of a continuous distribution of parameter estimates using mixed logit models. The main focus is the conditional valuations in the form of marginal values for the consequence of waste water handling and treatment, namely: river water quality, area flooding by sewage, presence of odour and flies, and other water related amenities.Choice experiments, Mixed logit, Latent classes, Individual-specific estimates, Non-market valuation

Modelling zero bids in contingent valuation surveys

When modelling data generated from a discrete choice contingent valuation question, the treatment of zero bids affects the welfare estimates. Zero bids may come from respondents who are not interested in the provision of the public good; alternatively, some zero-bidders may be protesting about the valuation exercise, but hold positive values for the good. In this paper we investigate the effect of different levels of information on zero-bidders on welfare estimates for the population. We find that different strategies of identification may have non-trivial effects. We recommend use of full debriefing questions for zero-bidders, and use of sample selection models to correct for bias caused by protest behaviou

Genotyping-by-sequencing in an orphan plant species Physocarpus opulifolius helps identify the evolutionary origins of the genus Prunus

Background: The Rosaceae family encompasses numerous genera exhibiting morphological diversification in fruit types and plant habit as well as a wide variety of chromosome numbers. Comparative genomics between various Rosaceous genera has led to the hypothesis that the ancestral genome of the family contained nine chromosomes, however, the synteny studies performed in the Rosaceae to date encompass species with base chromosome numbers x = 7 (Fragaria), x = 8 (Prunus), and x = 17 (Malus), and no study has included species from one of the many Rosaceous genera containing a base chromosome number of x = 9. Results: A genetic linkage map of the species Physocarpus opulifolius (x = 9) was populated with sequence characterised SNP markers using genotyping by sequencing. This allowed for the first time, the extent of the genome diversification of a Rosaceous genus with a base chromosome number of x = 9 to be performed. Orthologous loci distributed throughout the nine chromosomes of Physocarpus and the eight chromosomes of Prunus were identified which permitted a meaningful comparison of the genomes of these two genera to be made. Conclusions: The study revealed a high level of macro-synteny between the two genomes, and relatively few chromosomal rearrangements, as has been observed in studies of other Rosaceous genomes, lending further support for a relatively simple model of genomic evolution in Rosaceae

Measurement of Thermal Noise in Multilayer Coatings with Optimized Layer Thickness

A standard quarter-wavelength multilayer optical coating will produce the highest reflectivity for a given number of coating layers, but in general it will not yield the lowest thermal noise for a prescribed reflectivity. Coatings with the layer thicknesses optimized to minimize thermal noise could be useful in future generation interferometric gravitational wave detectors where coating thermal noise is expected to limit the sensitivity of the instrument. We present the results of direct measurements of the thermal noise of a standard quarter-wavelength coating and a low noise optimized coating. The measurements indicate a reduction in thermal noise in line with modeling predictions.Comment: 8 pages, 14 figure

Material loss angles from direct measurements of broadband thermal noise

We estimate the loss angles of the materials currently used in the highly reflective test-mass coatings of interferometric detectors of gravitational waves, namely Silica, Tantala, and Ti-dop ed Tantala, from direct measurement of coating thermal noise in an optical interferometer testbench, the Caltech TNI. We also present a simple predictive theory for the material properties of amorphous glassy oxide mixtures, which gives results in good agreement with our measurements on Ti-doped Tantala. Alternative measure ment methods and results are reviewed, and some critical issues are discussed

Evaluation of polygenic risk scores for breast and ovarian cancer risk prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]-positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2 x 10(53)). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2 x 10(-20)). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management

Impure Public Goods and Technological Interdependencies

Impure public goods represent an important group of goods. Almost every public good exerts not only effects which are public to all but also effects which are private to the producer of this good. What is often omitted in the analysis of impure public goods is the fact that – regularly – these private effects can also be generated independently of the public good. In our analysis we focus on the effects alternative technologies – independently generating the private effects of the public good – may have on the provision of impure public goods. After the investigation in an analytical impure public good model, we numerically simulate the effects of alternative technologies in a parameterized model for climate policy in Germany

Plasma Dynamics

Contains table of contents for Section 2 and reports on four research projects.National Science Foundation Grant ECS 89-02990U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant AFOSR 89-0082-BU.S. Army - Harry Diamond Laboratories Contract DAAL02-89-K-0084U.S. Department of Energy Contract DE-AC02-90ER40591U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-90-J-4130Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Subcontract B-160456National Science Foundation Grant ECS 88-22475U.S. Department of Energy Contract DE-FG02-91-ER-54109National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant NAGW-2048U.S.-Israel Binational Science Foundation Grant 87-0057U.S Department of Energy Contract DE-AC02-78-ET-5101