Recurrent hyperinflations and learning

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the last decade. We study a standard monetary model where the fully rational expectations assumption is replaced by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learning is able to match remarkably well some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced by several countries in the 80's. We argue that, despite being a small departure from rational expectations, quasi-rational learning does not preclude falsifiability of the model and it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements.Hyperinflations, convertibility, stabilization plans, quasi-rationality

Noncommutative Geometry Inspired Rotating Black Hole in Three Dimensions

We find a new rotating black hole in three-dimensional anti-de Sitter space using an anisotropic perfect fluid inspired by the noncommutative black hole. We deduce the thermodynamical quantities of this black hole and compare them with those of a rotating BTZ solution.Comment: 7 page

Recurrence of primary sclerosing cholangitis after liver transplantation – analysing the European Liver Transplant Registry and beyond

Liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) can be complicated by recurrence of PSC (rPSC). This may compromise graft survival but the effect on patient survival is less clear. We investigated the effect of post-transplant rPSC on graft and patient survival in a large European cohort. Registry data from the European Liver Transplant Registry regarding all first transplants for PSC between 1980 and 2015 were supplemented with detailed data on rPSC from 48 out of 138 contributing transplant centres, involving 1,549 patients. Bayesian proportional hazards models were used to investigate the impact of rPSC and other covariates on patient and graft survival. Recurrence of PSC was diagnosed in 259 patients (16.7%) after a median follow-up of 5.0 years (quantile 2.5%-97.5%: 0.4–18.5), with a significant negative impact on both graft (HR 6.7; 95% CI 4.9–9.1) and patient survival (HR 2.3; 95% CI 1.5–3.3). Patients with rPSC underwent significantly more re-transplants than those without rPSC (OR 3.6, 95% CI 2.7–4.8). PSC recurrence has a negative impact on both graft and patient survival, independent of transplant-related covariates. Recurrence of PSC leads to higher number of re-transplantations and a 33% decrease in 10-year graft survival

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning

We use a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the 1980's. In a standard monetary model we replace the assumption of full rational expectations by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learning matches some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced by several countries in the 1980's remarkably well. We argue that, despite being a small departure from rational expectations, quasi-rational learning does not preclude falsifiability of the model, it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements, and it can be used for policy evaluation.

Competition and Reputation

In this paper we analyze the interaction of two disciplinary mechanisms: competition and reputation. We first study a dynamic model of monopolistic competition with experienced goods (i.e., quality is observed after goods are purchased). When market power is high enough, reputation results in the equilibrium with perfect information being sustainable. If consumers' expectations satisfy a weak regularity condition, then there is a unique sequential equilibrium with quality goods being produced and the price has a mark-up which is either the full information monopolistic mark-up or, if this is not sustainable (e.g., when goods are very close substitutes), the rate of time preference, that acts as a reputation constraint. A variation of the model allows us to study the private provision of currencies. In particular, we inquire whether Bertrand competition between profit maximizing currency issuers would drive inflation rates to the efficient outcome, as suggested prominently by Hayek. We show that, unless firms can commit to future actions, the efficient outcome is never attained. Without full commitment, equilibria with deflation - as implied by the Friedman rule - can not be sustained, however, if currencies are close substitutes (and beliefs regular) the equilibrium inflation rate is zero

Genome-Wide Methylome Analyses Reveal Novel Epigenetic Regulation Patterns in Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder

Schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BP) are complex genetic disorders. Their appearance is also likely informed by as yet only partially described epigenetic contributions. Using a sequencing-based method for genome-wide analysis, we quantitatively compared the blood DNA methylation landscapes in SZ and BP subjects to control, both in an understudied population, Hispanics along the US-Mexico border. Remarkably, we identified thousands of differentially methylated regions for SZ and BP preferentially located in promoters 3′-UTRs and 5′-UTRs of genes. Distinct patterns of aberrant methylation of promoter sequences were located surrounding transcription start sites. In these instances, aberrant methylation occurred in CpG islands (CGIs) as well as in flanking regions as well as in CGI sparse promoters. Pathway analysis of genes displaying these distinct aberrant promoter methylation patterns showed enhancement of epigenetic changes in numerous genes previously related to psychiatric disorders and neurodevelopment. Integration of gene expression data further suggests that in SZ aberrant promoter methylation is significantly associated with altered gene transcription. In particular, we found significant associations between (1) promoter CGIs hypermethylation with gene repression and (2) CGI 3′-shore hypomethylation with increased gene expression. Finally, we constructed a specific methylation analysis platform that facilitates viewing and comparing aberrant genome methylation in human neuropsychiatric disorders

Shielding the Poor: Social Protection in the Developing World

Shielding the Poor presents a group of studies on social protection in the developing world from leading researchers. These studies address the issue of vulnerability of the poor to adverse shocks and propose policies to increase their protection and coping capacity. The studies emphasize the need for building permanent institutional structures that help reduce and manage the risks that households face as part of a coherent long-term strategy to reduce poverty and promote social equity. The articles included in this book were presented at the conference, "Social Protection and Poverty," held at the Inter-American Development Bank in February, 1999 in Washington, DC.