Nearshore wave forecasting and hindcasting by dynamical and statistical downscaling

A high-resolution nested WAM/SWAN wave model suite aimed at rapidly establishing nearshore wave forecasts as well as a climatology and return values of the local wave conditions with Rapid Enviromental Assessment (REA) in mind is described. The system is targeted at regions where local wave growth and partial exposure to complex open-ocean wave conditions makes diagnostic wave modelling difficult. SWAN is set up on 500 m resolution and is nested in a 10 km version of WAM. A model integration of more than one year is carried out to map the spatial distribution of the wave field. The model correlates well with wave buoy observations (0.96) but overestimates the wave height somewhat (18%, bias 0.29 m). To estimate wave height return values a much longer time series is required and running SWAN for such a period is unrealistic in a REA setting. Instead we establish a direction-dependent transfer function between an already existing coarse open-ocean hindcast dataset and the high-resolution nested SWAN model. Return values are estimated using ensemble estimates of two different extreme-value distributions based on the full 52 years of statistically downscaled hindcast data. We find good agreement between downscaled wave height and wave buoy observations. The cost of generating the statistically downscaled hindcast time series is negligible and can be redone for arbitrary locations within the SWAN domain, although the sectors must be carefully chosen for each new location. The method is found to be well suited to rapidly providing detailed wave forecasts as well as hindcasts and return values estimates of partly sheltered coastal regions.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures and 2 tables, MREA07 special issue on Marine rapid environmental assessmen

Transforming innovation for sustainability

The urgency of charting pathways to sustainability that keep human societies within a "safe operating space" has now been clarified. Crises in climate, food, biodiversity, and energy are already playing out across local and global scales and are set to increase as we approach critical thresholds. Drawing together recent work from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, the Tellus Institute, and the STEPS Centre, this commentary article argues that ambitious Sustainable Development Goals are now required along with major transformation, not only in policies and technologies, but in modes of innovation themselves, to meet them. As examples of dryland agriculture in East Africa and rural energy in Latin America illustrate, such "transformative innovation" needs to give far greater recognition and power to grassroots innovation actors and processes, involving them within an inclusive, multi-scale innovation politics. The three dimensions of direction, diversity, and distribution along with new forms of "sustainability brokering" can help guide the kinds of analysis and decision making now needed to safeguard our planet for current and future generations

Grassroots digital fabrication and makerspaces: Reconfiguring, relocating and recalibrating innovation?

Around the world, diverse groups of people are making things together in community-based workshops and their networks. Equipped with versatile digital design and manufacturing technologies, global networks of workshops, like Hackerspaces and FabLabs, provide facilities for exploring 'comons-based, peer production' in practice; and they are spreading rapidly. Emphasis rests in bringing people into collaborative DIY projects where they innovate and learn together - from making toys and jewellery to solar panels and eco-houses - and use on-line social media to connect to open-source designs, tutorials, and workshops globally. Excited claims are made about workshops transforming practices of design, innovation, production and consumption; 'how you live, work and play in a world where anybody can make anything anywhere'. Excitement includes claims for a 'third industrial revolution' and post-consumer sustainable societies. Less evident, however, are social scientific analyses of the practices and governance arrangements actually emerging in workshop spaces and networks, and which could contribute to debate about their possibilities and limitations for sustainability. Some workshops do enable design and innovation for recycling, re-manufacturing, and feeding user-led prototypes into sustainable local enterprise. They might even reinforce virtues relevant to post-consumption societies through peer production, the sharing economy, and collaborative consumption. However, evidence also suggests a dispersal of production capacity, diminished (resource) scale efficiencies, and intensified consumption through the personalisation of manufacturing. Our paper develops a conceptual framework for analysing workshop. Drawing upon science and technology studies, social movement theory, and material culture, we consider community workshops configuring and performing production and consumption across three inter-connected levels: networked-communities, local-workshops, and user-projects. Relationships across these levels are complex. When combined with contested ambiguities inherent to sustainable development, then static, life-cycle analyses or similar into sustainability potential is misplaced. Rather, workshops constitute dynamic spaces for experimentation, and it is the emerging capabilities and material cultures that are most significant for aspirations to post-consumer societies

Demonstration of multi-channel 80 Gbit/s integrated transmitter and receiver for wavelength-division multiplexing passive optical network and fronthauling applications

The performance evaluation of a multi-channel transmitter that employs an arrayed reflective electroabsorption modulator-based photonic integrated circuit and a low-power driver array in conjunction with a multi-channel receiver incorporating a pin photodiode array and integrated arrayed waveguide grating is reported. Due to their small footprint, low power consumption and potential low cost, these devices are attractive solutions for future mobile fronthaul and next generation optical access networks. A BER performance of <10(-9) at 10.3 Gbit/s per channel is achieved over 25 km of standard single mode fibre. The transmitter/receiver combination can achieve an aggregate bit rate of 82.4 Gbit/s when eight channels are active

Prevalence and Incidence of Black Band Disease of Scleractinian Corals in the Kepulauan Seribu Region of Indonesia

Black band disease (BBD) is the oldest recognised disease associated with scleractinian corals. However, despite this, few BBD surveys have been conducted in the Indonesian archipelago, one of the world’s hot spots for coral diversity. In this study, we show that BBD was recorded in the reefs of Kepulauan Seribu, Indonesia, at the time of surveying. The disease was found to mainly infect corals of the genus Montipora. In some instances, upwards of 177 colonies (31.64%) were found to be infected at specific sites. Prevalence of the disease ranged from 0.31% to 31.64% of Montipora sp. colonies throughout the archipelago. Although BBD was found at all sites, lower frequencies were associated with sites closest to the mainland (17.99 km), as well as those that were furthest away (63.65 km). Despite there being no linear relationship between distance from major population centers and BBD incidence, high incidences of this disease were associated with sites characterized by higher levels of light intensity. Furthermore, surveys revealed that outbreaks peaked during the transitional period between the dry and rainy seasons. Therefore, we suggest that future surveys for disease prevalence in this region of Indonesia should focus on these transitory periods

What land-use pattern emerges with landscape-scale management? An ecosystem-service perspective

It is argued that landscape-scale management (LSM) of habitat is better than farm-scale management (FSM) when considering the externality of ecosystem services. Given this advantage, how to regulate individual farmers' land-use decisions to achieve the LSM solution is an issue of common concern both for farmers and policymakers. Specifically, it needs to be determined if there exists a dominant land-use pattern that characterizes the LSM solution compared to FSM solution. In addition to the area of habitat, we design a land-use pattern index (LPI) to characterize the configuration of habitat and project itonto the sharing-sparing continuum. We find that the LSM solution is characterized by less intensive farming, and configurations of habitat are closer to land sharing. However, as crop dependency on ecosystem-services declines, the land-use patterns with LSM and FSM converge and the configurations of habitat start to resemble to land sparing. In addition, when habitat quality improves the configurations of habitat on the border farms become important. Finally, the less mobile service-providers are, the more farmers should focus on land-use patterns on their own farms. Our indices of land-use patterns could be integrated into the cross-compliance of CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) to better manage ecosystem-service in the future