Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions

A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003) pseudo market timing bias. We use standard simulation techniques to estimate the size of the aggregate pseudo market timing bias for a variety of predictive regressions based on managerial decision variables. We find that the bias can explain only about one percent of the predictive power of the equity share in new issues, and that it is also much too small to overturn prior inferences about the predictive power of corporate investment plans, insider trading, dividend initiations, or the maturity of corporate debt issues.

doi:10.1016/S0264-410X(03)00302-5

Abstract This historical essay analyzes the role played by Great Britain in the pertussis vaccine controversy of the 1970s and 1980s. Public backlash against this vaccine not only took place earlier in Britain than the United States, but also was so widespread that a series of whooping cough epidemics soon followed. As with the more recent dispute involving measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine and autism, the United Kingdom played a primary role in defining, promoting, and ultimately exporting this controversy. This essay seeks to explain this phenomenon by situating it in Britain's long history of suspicion regarding vaccines evident among both the public and the medical profession, a theme dating back to the compulsory vaccination laws of the 19th century. It argues that anti-vaccinationism, far from being simply a new development related to the public's lack of awareness of childhood vaccine-preventable illness, actually represents a revival of a much older movement. Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Immunization; Whooping cough; Pertussis The pertussis vaccine controversy of the 1970s and 1980s marked the most significant setback for the cause of immunization since the smallpox vaccine debates of the previous century. International in scope, it swept through most of Europe and Japan in its first phase prior to eventually affecting the United States, Soviet Union, and Australia [1]. This paper will examine how it affected the United Kingdom, where media reports alleging the potential of pertussis vaccine to cause neurological injury led to a sharp decline in public acceptance during the mid-1970s. There followed a series of much-publicized whooping cough epidemics that have since become an object lesson for the international public health community demonstrating the importance of childhood immunization. Yet, for all the story's notoriety, it has received little historical analysis. This remains true even as more recent controversies, such as that revolving around the purported association of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) immunization and autism, illustrate the importance of understanding the dynamics of anti-vaccine agitation Most commentary citing the British pertussis vaccine experience has taken to task the media for exaggerating and sensationalizing the vaccine's potential for harm while neglecting the dangers of whooping cough itself. This essay will argue that, although the press certainly did play a role in initiating the crisis, it was hardly the only factor. The British medical profession itself was deeply divided, reflecting quite * Tel.: +1-919-668-9000; fax: +1-919-668-1789. E-mail address: [email protected] (J.P. Baker). real uncertainties surrounding the safety and efficacy of the vaccine in the 1970s. Parents in vaccine victim advocacy groups played an additional important role in sustaining the crisis. The ambivalence of both public and medical profession, it will be suggested, are best understood against the background of Britain's long history of skepticism regarding many vaccines dating back to smallpox

Water Demand Management in England and Wales: constructions of the domestic water-user

YesMeasures to manage demand include implicit and explicit messages about domestic water-users which have important potential impacts on their perceptions and practices. Drawing on recent literature, this paper identifies three different ¿dimensions¿ along which demand management measures¿ constructions of the water-user may vary: these relate to whether the water user is passive or active, whether they are motivated by individual or common needs, and whether they perceive water as a right or a commodity. Demand management measures currently used in England and Wales are then discussed and analysed. The paper concludes by highlighting the importance of communications associated with demand management, and in particular, notes the need to consider the cumulative impact of messages and their interactions with people¿s existing understandings

Pruritus is a common feature in sheep infected with the BSE agent.

BACKGROUND: The variability in the clinical or pathological presentation of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in sheep, such as scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), has been attributed to prion protein genotype, strain, breed, clinical duration, dose, route and type of inoculum and the age at infection. The study aimed to describe the clinical signs in sheep infected with the BSE agent throughout its clinical course to determine whether the clinical signs were as variable as described for classical scrapie in sheep. The clinical signs were compared to BSE-negative sheep to assess if disease-specific clinical markers exist. RESULTS: Forty-seven (34%) of 139 sheep, which comprised 123 challenged sheep and 16 undosed controls, were positive for BSE. Affected sheep belonged to five different breeds and three different genotypes (ARQ/ARQ, VRQ/VRQ and AHQ/AHQ). None of the controls or BSE exposed sheep with ARR alleles were positive. Pruritus was present in 41 (87%) BSE positive sheep; the remaining six were judged to be pre-clinically infected. Testing of the response to scratching along the dorsum of a sheep proved to be a good indicator of clinical disease with a test sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 98% and usually coincided with weight loss. Clinical signs that were displayed significantly earlier in BSE positive cases compared to negative cases were behavioural changes, pruritic behaviour, a positive scratch test, alopecia, skin lesions, teeth grinding, tremor, ataxia, loss of weight and loss of body condition. The frequency and severity of each specific clinical sign usually increased with the progression of disease over a period of 16-20 weeks. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that BSE in sheep presents with relatively uniform clinical signs, with pruritus of increased severity and abnormalities in behaviour or movement as the disease progressed. Based on the studied sheep, these clinical features appear to be independent of breed, affected genotype, dose, route of inoculation and whether BSE was passed into sheep from cattle or from other sheep, suggesting that the clinical phenotype of BSE is influenced by the TSE strain more than by other factors. The clinical phenotype of BSE in the genotypes and breed studied was indistinguishable from that described for classical scrapie cases

The Effect of Reference Point Prices on Mergers and Acquisitions

Prior stock price peaks of targets affect several aspects of merger and acquisition activity. Offer prices are biased toward recent peak prices although they are economically unremarkable. An offer's probability of acceptance jumps discontinuously when it exceeds a peak price. Conversely, bidder shareholders react more negatively as the offer price is influenced upward toward a peak. Merger waves occur when high returns on the market and likely targets make it easier for bidders to offer a peak price. Parties thus appear to use recent peaks as reference points or anchors to simplify the complex tasks of valuation and negotiation

Dividends as Reference Points: A Behavioral Signaling Approach

We outline a dividend signaling model that features investors who are averse to dividend cuts. Managers with strong unobservable cash earnings separate by paying high dividends but retain enough to be likely not to fall short next period. The model is consistent with a Lintner partial-adjustment model; modal dividend changes of zero; stronger market reactions to dividend cuts than increases; comparatively infrequent and irregular repurchases; and a mechanism that does not depend on public destruction of value, which managers reject in surveys. New tests involve stronger reactions to changes from longer-maintained dividend levels and reference point currencies of ADR dividends

Molecular phylogeny of Burkholderia pseudomallei from a remote region of Papua New Guinea

Background The island of New Guinea is located midway between the world's two major melioidosis endemic regions of Australia and Southeast Asia. Previous studies in Papua New Guinea have demonstrated autochthonous melioidosis in Balimo, Western province. In contrast to other regions of endemicity, isolates recovered from both environmental and clinical sources demonstrate narrow genetic diversity over large spatial and temporal scales. Methodology/Principal Findings We employed molecular typing techniques to determine the phylogenetic relationships of these isolates to each other and to others worldwide to aid in understanding the origins of the Papua New Guinean isolates. Multi-locus sequence typing of the 39 isolates resolved three unique sequence types. Phylogenetic reconstruction and Structure analysis determined that all isolates were genetically closer to those from Australia than those from Southeast Asia. Gene cluster analysis however, identified a Yersinia-like fimbrial gene cluster predominantly found among Burkholderia pseudomallei derived from Southeast Asia. Higher resolution VNTR typing and phylogenetic reconstruction of the Balimo isolates resolved 24 genotypes with long branch lengths. These findings are congruent with long term persistence in the region and a high level of environmental stability. Conclusions/Significance Given that anthropogenic influence has been hypothesized as a mechanism for the dispersal of B. pseudomallei, these findings correlate with limited movement of the indigenous people in the region. The palaeogeographical and anthropogenic history of Australasia and the results from this study indicate that New Guinea is an important region for the further study of B. pseudomallei origins and dissemination