River flow and stage estimation with missing observation data using Multi Imputation Particle Filter (MIPF) method

An advanced knowledge of the river condition helps for better source management. This information can be gathered via estimation using DA methods. The DA methods blend the system model with the observation data to obtain the estimated river flow and stage. However, the observation data may contain some missing data due to the hardware power limitations, unreliable channel, sensor failure and etc. This problem limits the ability of the standard method such as EKF, EnKF and PF. The Multi Imputation Particle Filter (MIPF) able to deal with this problem since it allows for new input data to replace the missing data. The result shows that the performance of the river flow and stage estimation is depending on the number of particles and imputation used. The performance is evaluated by comparing the estimated velocity obtained using the estimated flow and stage, with the measured velocity. The result shows that higher number of particles and imputation ensure better estimation result

River Flow and Stage Estimation with Missing Observation Data using Multi Imputation Particle Filter (MIPF) Method

An advanced knowledge of the river condition helps for better source management. This information can be gathered via estimation using DA methods. The DA methods blend the system model with the observation data to obtain the estimated river flow and stage. However, the observation data may contain some missing data due to the hardware power limitations, unreliable channel, sensor failure and etc. This problem limits the ability of the standard method such as EKF, EnKF and PF. The Multi Imputation Particle Filter (MIPF) able to deal with this problem since it allows for new input data to replace the missing data. The result shows that the performance of the river flow and stage estimation is depending on the number of particles and imputation used. The performance is evaluated by comparing the estimated velocity obtained using the estimated flow and stage, with the measured velocity. The result shows that higher number of particles and imputation ensure better estimation result

Antagonistic effects of intestinal Lactobacillus isolates on pathogens of chicken

Twelve Lactobacillus strains isolated from chicken intestine, which demonstrated a strong and moderate capacity to adhere to the ileal epithelial cells in vitro, were used to investigate their inhibitory ability against five strains of salmonella, i.e. Salmonella enteritidis 935/79, Salm. pullorum, Salm. typhimurium, Salm. blockIey and Salm. enteritidis 94/448, and three serotypes of Escherichia coli, viz. E. coli O1: K1, O2: K1 and O78: K80. The results showed that all the 12 Lactobacillus isolates were able to inhibit the growth of the five strains of salmonella, and the three strains of E. coli in varying degrees. Generally, they were more effective in inhibiting the growth of salmonella than E. coli. Inhibition of the pathogenic bacteria was probably due to the production of organic acids by the Lactobacillus isolates

Double jeopardy-pregnancy and birth during a catastrophic bushfire event followed by a pandemic lockdown, a natural experiment

Background: From November 2019 to January 2020, eastern Australia experienced the worst bushfires in recorded history. Two months later, Sydney and surrounds were placed into lockdown for six weeks due to the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by ongoing restrictions. Many pregnant women at this time were exposed to both the bushfires and COVID-19 restrictions. Objective: To assess the impact of exposure to bushfires and pandemic restrictions on perinatal outcomes. Methods: The study included 60 054 pregnant women who gave birth between November 2017 and December 2020 in South Sydney. Exposure cohorts were based on conception and birthing dates: 1) bushfire late pregnancy, born before lockdown; 2) bushfires in early-mid pregnancy, born during lockdown or soon after; 3) conceived during bushfires, lockdown in second trimester; 4) conceived after bushfires, pregnancy during restrictions. Exposure cohorts were compared with pregnancies in the matching periods in the two years prior. Associations between exposure cohorts and gestational diabetes, preeclampsia, hypertension, stillbirth, mode of birth, birthweight, preterm birth and small for gestational age were assessed using generalised estimating equations, adjusting for covariates. Results: A decrease in low birth weight was observed for cohort 1 (aOR 0.81, 95%CI 0.69, 0.95). Conversely, cohort 2 showed an increase in low birth weight, and increases in prelabour rupture of membranes, and caesarean sections (aOR 1.18, 95%CI 1.03, 1.37; aOR 1.21, 95%CI 1.07, 1.37; aOR 1.10 (1.02, 1.18) respectively). Cohort 3 showed an increase in unplanned caesarean sections and high birth weight babies (aOR 1.15, 95%CI 1.04, 1.27 and aOR 1.16, 95%CI 1.02, 1.31 respectively), and a decrease in gestational diabetes mellitus was observed for both cohorts 3 and 4. Conclusion: Pregnancies exposed to both severe climate events and pandemic disruptions appear to have increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes beyond only experiencing one event, but further research is needed

Neighbourhood environments and cognitive health in the longitudinal Personality and Total Health (PATH) through life study: A 12-year follow-up of older Australians

Background: Urban neighbourhood environments may impact older adults’ cognitive health. However, longitudinal studies examining key environmental correlates of cognitive health are lacking. We estimated cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of neighbourhood built and natural environments and ambient air pollution with multiple cognitive health outcomes in Australian urban dwellers aged 60+ years. Methods: The study included 1160 participants of the PATH Through Life study (60+ cohort) who were followed up for 12 years (four assessments; 2001/02 to 2013/15) and with data on socio-demographics, health, cognitive functions and diagnoses, and full residential address. Neighbourhood environmental features encompassed population and street-intersection densities, non-commercial land use mix, transit points, presence of blue space, percentages of commercial land, parkland and tree cover, and annual average PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations. All exposures except for tree cover were assessed at two time points. Generalised additive mixed models estimated associations of person-level average, and within-person changes in, exposures with cognitive functions. Multi-state hidden Markov models estimated the associations of neighbourhood attributes with transitions to/from mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Results: Dense, destination-rich neighbourhoods were associated with a lower likelihood of transition to MCI and reversal to no MCI. Positive cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of non-commercial land use mix, street intersection density and percentage of commercial land were observed especially with global cognition and processing speed. While access to parkland and blue spaces were associated with a lower risk of transition to MCI, the findings related to cognitive functions were mixed and supportive of an effect of parkland on verbal memory only. Higher levels of PM2.5 and NO2 were consistently associated with steeper declines and/or decreases in cognitive functions and worse cognitive states across time. Conclusion: To support cognitive health in ageing populations, neighbourhoods need to provide an optimal mix of environmental complexity, destinations and access to the natural environment and, at the same time, minimise ambient air pollution

Parental experience of an early developmental surveillance programme for autism within Australian general practice: A qualitative study

Objectives Implementing support and services early in the life course has been shown to promote positive developmental outcomes for children at high likelihood of developmental conditions including autism. This study examined parents'/caregivers' experiences and perceptions about a digital developmental surveillance pathway for autism, the autism surveillance pathway (ASP), and usual care, the surveillance as usual (SaU) pathway, in the primary healthcare general practice setting. Design This qualitative study involves using a convenience selection process of the full sample of parents/caregivers that participated in the main programme, 'General Practice Surveillance for Autism', a cluster-randomised controlled trial study. All interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and coded using NVivo V.12 software. An inductive thematic interpretive approach was adopted and data were analysed thematically. Participants Twelve parents/caregivers of children with or without a developmental condition/autism (who participated in the main programme) in South Western Sydney and Melbourne were interviewed. Settings All interviews were completed over the phone. Results There were seven major themes and 20 subthemes that included positive experiences, such as pre-existing patient-doctor relationships and their perceptions on the importance of knowing and accessing early support/services. Barriers or challenges experienced while using the SaU pathway included long waiting periods, poor communication and lack of action plans, complexity associated with navigating the healthcare system and lack of understanding by general practitioners (GPs). Common suggestions for improvement included greater awareness/education for parents/carers and the availability of accessible resources on child development for parents/caregivers. Conclusion The findings support the use of digital screening tools for developmental surveillance, including for autism, using opportunistic contacts in the general practice setting. Trial registration number ANZCTR (ACTRN12619001200178)

A review of Open Defecation (OD) in Indonesia and the control with logic model

In 2015, Indonesia was ranked as the second-highest, with a percentage of 12.9%. Open Defecation Free (ODF) in Indonesia is still a problem, 33 out of 34 provinces in Indonesia are still not 100% verified as ODF. The purpose of this study is to make a management control of OD behaviour in Indonesia. This study’s literature was collected using Google Scholar and Pubmed search engines by entering keywords open defecation Indonesia, and buang air besar sembarangan. From review of published literature, it is found that several factors cause people to practice OD, namely environmental, socio-cultural, and economic factors. These factors become the basis for making OD model control with a logic model. The program was made with a button-up approach carried out through several activities, namely approaches to community leaders, youth, and local communities, monitoring potential areas for OD practice and cross-sector coordination, and making regional regulations

A retrospective cohort study of stroke onset: implications for characterizing short term effects from ambient air pollution

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Case-crossover studies used to investigate associations between an environmental exposure and an acute health response, such as stroke, will often use the day an individual presents to an emergency department (ED) or is admitted to hospital to infer when the stroke occurred. Similarly, they will use patient's place of residence to assign exposure. The validity of using these two data elements, typically extracted from administrative databases or patient charts, to define the time of stroke onset and to assign exposure are critical in this field of research as air pollutant concentrations are temporally and spatially variable. Our a priori hypotheses were that date of presentation differs from the date of stroke onset for a substantial number of patients, and that assigning exposure to ambient pollution using place of residence introduces an important source of exposure measurement error. The objective of this study was to improve our understanding on how these sources of errors influence risk estimates derived using a case-crossover study design.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We sought to collect survey data from stroke patients presenting to hospital EDs in Edmonton, Canada on the date, time, location and nature of activities at onset of stroke symptoms. The daily mean ambient concentrations of NO₂and PM_2.5on the self-reported day of stroke onset was estimated from continuous fixed-site monitoring stations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 336 participating patients, 241 were able to recall when their stroke started and 72.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 66.9 - 78.3%) experienced stroke onset the same day they presented to the ED. For subjects whose day of stroke onset differed from the day of presentation to the ED, this difference ranged from 1 to 12 days (mean = 1.8; median = 1). In these subjects, there were no systematic differences in assigned pollution levels for either NO₂or PM_2.5when day of presentation rather than day of stroke onset was used. At the time of stroke onset, 89.9% (95% CI: 86.6 - 93.1%) reported that they were inside, while 84.5% (95% CI: 80.6 - 88.4%) reported that for most of the day they were within a 15 minute drive from home. We estimated that due to the mis-specification of the day of stroke onset, the risk of hospitalization for stroke would be understated by 15% and 20%, for NO₂and PM_2.5, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data suggest that day of presentation and residential location data obtained from administrative records reasonably captures the time and location of stroke onset for most patients. Under these conditions, any associated errors are unlikely to be an important source of bias when estimating air pollution risks in this population.</p

Health effects of smoke from planned burns: a study protocol

Abstract Background Large populations are exposed to smoke from bushfires and planned burns. Studies investigating the association between bushfire smoke and health have typically used hospital or ambulance data and been done retrospectively on large populations. The present study is designed to prospectively assess the association between individual level health outcomes and exposure to smoke from planned burns. Methods/design A prospective cohort study will be conducted during a planned burn season in three locations in Victoria (Australia) involving 50 adult participants who undergo three rounds of cardiorespiratory medical tests, including measurements for lung inflammation, endothelial function, heart rate variability and markers of inflammation. In addition daily symptoms and twice daily lung function are recorded. Outdoor particulate air pollution is continuously measured during the study period in these locations. The data will be analysed using mixed effect models adjusting for confounders. Discussion Planned burns depend on weather conditions and dryness of ‘fuels’ (i.e. forest). It is potentially possible that no favourable conditions occur during the study period. To reduce the risk of this occurring, three separate locations have been identified as having a high likelihood of planned burn smoke exposure during the study period, with the full study being rolled out in two of these three locations. A limitation of this study is exposure misclassification as outdoor measurements will be conducted as a measure for personal exposures. However this misclassification will be reduced as participants are only eligible if they live in close proximity to the monitors