The price of piracy in Somalia

Somalia is a country ravaged by political instability, internal strife and abject poverty – an ideal breeding ground for piracy. But the short term gains that have filtered through the economy from ransom payments have done little to address the country’s long term economic health, argues LSE’s Ryan Jablonski

Captain Phillips and the causes of piracy

LSE’s Ryan Jablonski and Steven Oliver of the University of California, San Diego explore the reasons for piracy on the Somali economy

What politicians don’t know can hurt you: the effects of information on politicians’ spending decisions

Do well-informed politicians make more effective spending decisions? In experiments with 70% of all elected politicians in Malawi (N=460), we tested the effects of information on public spending. Specifically, we randomly provided information about school needs, foreign aid, and voting patterns prior to officials making real decisions about the allocation of spending. We show that these information interventions reduced inequalities in spending: treatment group politicians were more likely to spend in schools neglected by donors and in schools with greater need. Some information treatment effects were strongest in remote and less populated communities. These results suggest information gaps partially explain inequalities in spending allocation and imply social welfare benefits from improving politicians’ access to information about community needs

Did aid promote democracy in Africa?: the role of technical assistance in Africa’s transitions

Did foreign aid impede or catalyze democratization in Africa in the 1990s? We argue that after the Cold War, donors increased their use of technical assistance in aid packages, improving their monitoring capacity and thus reducing autocrats’ ability to use aid for patronage. To remain in power, autocrats responded by conceding political rights to their opponents—from legalizing opposition parties to staging elections. We test our theory with panel data for all sub-Saharan African countries. While other factors played pivotal roles in Africa’s political liberalization, we find technical assistance helps to explain the timing and extent of Africa’s democratization

Information about service provision in Uganda is insufficient to affect voting behaviour

The quality of service provision in Uganda varies greatly across regions and between villages, and yet evidence suggests citizens’ are unable to assess these differences. A research experiment used SMS messages about public services to help Ugandans make informed voting decisions, but it found no effect on voting outcomes. Here is why information alone is sometimes insufficient to affect political behaviour

Individualized text messages about public services fail to sway voters: evidence from a field experiment on Ugandan elections

Mobile communication technologies can provide citizens access to information that is tailored to their specific circumstances. Such technologies may therefore increase citizens' ability to vote in line with their interests and hold politicians accountable. In a large-scale randomized controlled trial in Uganda (n = 16,083), we investigated whether citizens who receive private, timely, and individualized text messages by mobile phone about public services in their community punished or rewarded incumbents in local elections in line with the information. Respondents claimed to find the messages valuable and there is evidence that they briefly updated their beliefs based on the messages; however, the treatment did not cause increased votes for incumbents where public services were better than expected nor decreased votes where public services were worse than anticipated. The considerable knowledge gaps among citizens identified in this study indicate potential for communication technologies to effectively share civic information. Yet the findings imply that when the attribution of public service outcomes is difficult, even individualized information is unlikely to affect voting behavior

The Tortuga disease: the perverse effects of illicit foreign capital

Transnational crime brings substantial foreign capital into a number of fragile and developing states. Yet the economic and political impacts of such capital have rarely been studied due to the challenges of obtaining accurate data on illicit activities. We overcome this challenge by compiling a dataset on the amount and disbursement dates of ransom payments made by ship owners and insurers to Somali pirates from 2005 to 2012, along with sub-national commodity prices and trade flows in Somalia. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we hypothesize and find that ransoms have effects similar to those associated with the Dutch Disease. These effects include appreciating the local currency, decreasing export competitiveness, and increasing import dependence. The results illuminate a new channel through which illicit capital can undermine long-term economic development and foster an economic and political dependency on illicit sectors

Connecting urban food plans to the countryside: leveraging Denver's food vision to explore meaningful rural-urban linkages

Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-18).Cities are increasingly turning to food policy plans to support goals related to food access, food security, the environment, and economic development. This paper investigates ways that rural farmers, communities, and economies can both support and be supported by metropolitan food-focused initiatives. Specifically, our research question asked what opportunities and barriers exist to developing food policies that support urban food goals, particularly related to local procurement, as well as rural economic development. To address this question, we described and analyzed a meeting of urban stakeholders and larger-scale rural producers related to Colorado’s Denver Food Vision and Plan. We documented and explored “findings” gleaned from a supply chain diagraming and data compilation process that were then used to inform an event that brought together diverse supply chain partners. Three findings stand out. First, facilitating dialog between urban food policymakers and rural producers to understand potential tensions, mitigate such tensions, and capitalize on opportunities is essential. Second, perceptions and expectations surrounding “good food” are nuanced—a timely finding given the number of preferred procurement programs emerging across the county. Third, critical evaluation is needed across a diverse set of value chain strategies (e.g., conventional and alternative distribution) if food policy intends to support heterogeneous producers, their communities, and urban food policy goals

Surviving elections: election violence, incumbent victory, and post-election repercussions

It is often assumed that government-sponsored election violence increases the probability that incumbent leaders remain in power. Using cross-national data, we show that election violence increases the probability of incumbent victory, but can generate risky post-election dynamics. These differences in the consequences of election violence reflect changes in the strategic setting over the course of the election cycle. In the pre-election period, anti-incumbent collective action tends to be focused on the election itself, either through voter mobilization or opposition-organized election boycotts. In the post-election period, by contrast, when a favorable electoral outcome is no longer a possibility, anti-government collective action more often takes the form of mass political protest, which in turn can lead to costly repercussions for incumbent leaders