Detecting Economic Regimes in France : a Qualitative Markov-Switching Indicator Using Mixed Frequency Data

This paper proposes an indicator for detecting business cycle turning points involving mixed frequency business survey unbalanced data. It is based on a hidden Markov-switching model and allows for the detection of regime changes in a given economy where information is displayed monthly and/or quarterly. Starting from Gregoir and Lenglart (2000) we propose an adaptable framework which can be applied to many situations involving monthly, bimonthly and quarterly data. The proposed methodology is applied to the French economy. Using balances from business survey, this indicator measures the probability of being in an accelerating or a decelerating phase referring to the output growth rate cycle. The index is confronted over the past with a reference dating based on the growth cycle of the French GDP estimated through a Christiano-Fitzgerald filter. By extracting information from business survey, our index exhibits quite clearly and timely regime changes in France. Moreover, the signal delivered by the indicator is mainly unrevised and available many quarters before the ex-post dating. Considering this adequacy with the reference dating over the past, the turning point index therefore provides an accurate signal on the current outlook.Business Cycle; Business Survey; Turning points; Markov Switching Indicator; Multifrequency Data

Pensions in the French public sector: projections up to 2040 with the DESTINIE microsimulation model

The microsimulation model Destinie developed at INSEE is a privileged tool to assess the effect of pension schemes reforms since it projects the evolution of a representative sample of the French population up to 2040. Up to now, the model was exclusively devoted to the projection of pensions for wage earners in the private sector. A new module has been developed to project pensions for public sector employees. After having described this module, and the results it provides in projection by 2040, this paper presents its application to the simulation of the macroeconomic impacts of the French reform of 2003. Results that are obtained are consistent with other results already published: a decrease in the number of pensioners amounting to approximately 400.000 people in the long run, and a total burden of pensions reduced by about 19%.Pension system, microsimulation, Destinie, public sector, 2003 reform

Estimating the Underwater Diffuse Attenuation Coefficient with a Low-Cost Instrument: The KdUINO DIY Buoy

A critical parameter to assess the environmental status of water bodies is the transparency of the water, as it is strongly affected by different water quality related components (such as the presence of phytoplankton, organic matter and sediment concentrations). One parameter to assess the water transparency is the diffuse attenuation coefficient. However, the number of subsurface irradiance measurements obtained with conventional instrumentation is relatively low, due to instrument costs and the logistic requirements to provide regular and autonomous observations. In recent years, the citizen science concept has increased the number of environmental observations, both in time and space. The recent technological advances in embedded systems and sensors also enable volunteers (citizens) to create their own devices (known as Do-It-Yourself or DIY technologies). In this paper, a DIY instrument to measure irradiance at different depths and automatically calculate the diffuse attenuation Kd coefficient is presented. The instrument, named KdUINO, is based on an encapsulated low-cost photonic sensor and Arduino (an open-hardware platform for the data acquisition). The whole instrument has been successfully operated and the data validated comparing the KdUINO measurements with the commercial instruments. Workshops have been organized with high school students to validate its feasibility

An analytical solver for the multi-group two-dimensional neutron-diffusion equation by integral transform techniques

In this work, we present an analytical solver for neutron diffusion in a rectangular two-dimensional geometry by a two-step integral transform procedure. To this end, we consider a regionwise homogeneous problem for two energy groups, i.e. fast and thermal neutrons, respectively. Each region has its specific physical properties, specified by cross-sections and diffusion constants. The problem is set up by two coupled bi-dimensional diffusion equations in agreement with general perturbation theory. These are solved by integral transforms Laplace transform and generalized integral transform technique yielding analytical expressions for the scalar neutron fluxes. The solutions for neutron fluxes are presented for fast and thermal neutrons in the four regions

Structural basis for the enhanced activity of cyclic antimicrobial peptides:The case of BPC194

AbstractWe report the molecular basis for the differences in activity of cyclic and linear antimicrobial peptides. We iteratively performed atomistic molecular dynamics simulations and biophysical measurements to probe the interaction of a cyclic antimicrobial peptide and its inactive linear analogue with model membranes. We establish that, relative to the linear peptide, the cyclic one binds stronger to negatively charged membranes. We show that only the cyclic peptide folds at the membrane interface and adopts a β-sheet structure characterised by two turns. Subsequently, the cyclic peptide penetrates deeper into the bilayer while the linear peptide remains essentially at the surface. Finally, based on our comparative study, we propose a model characterising the mode of action of cyclic antimicrobial peptides. The results provide a chemical rationale for enhanced activity in certain cyclic antimicrobial peptides and can be used as a guideline for design of novel antimicrobial peptides

Oscilaciones eustáticas e implicaciones climáticas en el tránsito Neógeno-Cuaternario en la isla de Sal (archipiélago de Cabo Verde)

Solution pipes interpreted as a cryptokarst separate large-scale cross-bedded megaforms of shallowmarine calcarenites deposited at the Neogene-Quatemary transition in Cape Verde Islands. This implies that depositional phases were followed by subaerial exposure of the cemented calcarenites during subsequent falls of sea level, and accumulation of unconsolidated eolianites which supported a vegetal cover that promoted the cryptokarst. The process was repeated several times. A widespread, more recent karstification with red silty clay filling of voids may represent the aridification of climate at the beginning oi the Quaternary and the increased supply of Saharan dust by Trade Winds

Anterior fundoplication at the time of congenital diaphragmatic hernia repair

The loss of normal anatomic barriers in neonates with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) can predispose children to gastroesophageal reflux (GER). In an attempt to improve post-operative feeding, we have added a modified anterior fundoplication to restore natural gastric and esophageal positioning. The institutional review board of both participating centers approved this study. Between 1997 and 2008, 13 neonates with high-risk anatomy underwent repair of CDH combined with an anterior fundoplication (Boix-Ochoa). The anatomic indications for concomitant fundoplication were absence of an intra-abdominal esophagus, an obtuse angle of His, and a small, vertically oriented stomach. Ten patients survived to discharge and eight were on full oral nourishment. One required partial gastrostomy feedings for an improving oral aversion and quickly progressed to full oral feedings. One patient with chromosomal anomalies and swallowing dysfunction remained on long-term bolus gastrostomy feedings. Two with progressive symptoms of GER and failure to thrive required conversion to a 360° wrap after 18 months of medical management. This was performed in conjunction with a planned, staged muscle flap reconstruction in one patient. There were no complications related to the fundoplication. Anatomic predictors of severe GER can be efficiently countered at the time of CDH repair. A modified fundoplication should be considered in the operative management of high-risk infants

Aulamar: Projecte escola d’oceanografia costanera

En aquest Research Café es presenten projectes on la tecnologia es posa al servei dels mars i els oceans, i que estan lligats amb els objectius ODS Vida Submarina i Acció pel clima.Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::13 - Acció per al ClimaObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::14 - Vida Submarin

Catalogue of the geological and environmental effects of earthquakes in Spain in the ESI-2007 Macroseismic Scale and their application to paleoseismology

Este trabajo resume la contribución del grupo de trabajo español sobre efectos geológicos y ambientales de los terremotos en la elaboración de la escala macrosísmica ESI-2007 promovida por la subcomisión de paleosismología de INQUA. En la actualidad se han clasificado 20 eventos sísmicos, 7 instrumentales y 13 históricos. La mayoría se encuentran incluidos en los catálogos sísmicos existentes salvo dos de los que sólo existen evidencias en el registro geológico o arqueológico (Tobarra y Baelo Claudia). Se han catalogado un total de 103 efectos geológicos para los eventos mencionados, de los cuales 32 se han implementado en la base de datos EEE de INQUA. Los datos recogidos en el presente catálogo cubren intensidades desde VI a X de la escala convencional MSK, con magnitudes (Ms) asociadas entre 4,3 y 6,7. En los eventos analizados las intensidades ESI-07 estimadas provisionalmente resultan similares a las MSK y se sitúan entre uno o dos grados por encima de las intensidades EMS correspondientes.This work summarizes the contribution of the Spanish working group on the Earthquake Environmental Effects (EEE) for their implementation in the ESI-2007 macroseismic Intensity Scale promoted by the INQUA Subcomission on Paleoseismology. At present the Spanish working group has classified a total amount of 20 seismic events, 7 of them instrumental earthquakes and the other 13 historical ones. While two of the historical ones are only evidenced by geological, geomorphological (Tobarra, Albacete) and archaeological data (Baelo Claudia,, Cádiz), the rest are well documented in historical sources and existing seismic catalogues. From the bulk 103 site locality effects cataloged a total of 32 EEE files have been completed, which have been already implemented in the EEE INQUA data-base. The Spanish data cover intensity degrees from VI to X of the conventional MSK Scale, with associated magnitudes (Ms) from 4.3 to 6.7. The analysed events result in estimated ESI-07 intensities similar to that of the MSK conventional scale, but one or two degrees higher than those resulting from the EMS scale estimations.Depto. de Geodinámica, Estratigrafía y PaleontologíaFac. de Ciencias GeológicasTRUEpu