Classifying and Identifying Negative Poisson's Ratio. An Examination of the Auxeticity in Zeolitic Materials

The aim of this thesis is to advance the understanding of auxeticity. This is achieved by developing a more accurate way to classify materials exhibiting the property, by carrying out high-throughput atomistic simulations of framework materials based on the SiO2 and GeO2 chemistries, and by exploring mechanistic models and possible correlations with directional density variations. At first this thesis outlines the development of a typographic system for negative Poisson's ratio. Materials are given classifications based on the degree to which auxetic behaviour is observed along specific axes of deformation and the frequency of occurrence of these axes. A systematic study is then performed on the elastic properties of zeolitic silicon dioxide and germanium dioxide structures. The typology is applied to these materials to better understand their auxetic behaviour. The JST framework is identified as isotropically auxetic, the first crystal to exhibit such general negative Poisson's ratios. An exploration into the effects of local density variations between parallel planes on Poisson's ratio is undertaken, but no clear correlation is found. Finally, software for systematically creating and evaluating two dimensional networks of triangles is produced. The geometrical analysis of these rotating structures predicts a high level of auxeticity and further work into three dimensional equivalents is recommended

Evaluation of numerical models by FerryBox and fixed platform in situ data in the southern North Sea

For understanding and forecasting of hydrodynamics in coastal regions, numerical models have served as an important tool for many years. In order to assess the model performance, we compared simulations to observational data of water temperature and salinity. Observations were available from FerryBox transects in the southern North Sea and, additionally, from a fixed platform of the MARNET network. More detailed analyses have been made at three different stations, located off the English eastern coast, at the Oyster Ground and in the German Bight. FerryBoxes installed on ships of opportunity (SoO) provide high-frequency surface measurements along selected tracks on a regular basis. The results of two operational hydrodynamic models have been evaluated for two different time periods: BSHcmod v4 (January 2009 to April 2012) and FOAM AMM7 NEMO (April 2011 to April 2012). While they adequately simulate temperature, both models underestimate salinity, especially near the coast in the southern North Sea. Statistical errors differ between the two models and between the measured parameters. The root mean square error (RMSE) of water temperatures amounts to 0.72 °C (BSHcmod v4) and 0.44 °C (AMM7), while for salinity the performance of BSHcmod is slightly better (0.68 compared to 1.1). The study results reveal weaknesses in both models, in terms of variability, absolute levels and limited spatial resolution. Simulation of the transition zone between the coasts and the open sea is still a demanding task for operational modelling. Thus, FerryBox data, combined with other observations with differing temporal and spatial scales, can serve as an invaluable tool not only for model evaluation, but also for model optimization by assimilation of such high-frequency observations

Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape. We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1∕12°, and still reasonably well resolved at 1∕4°; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1∕12° global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only  ∼ 8% of regions  < 500m deep, but this increases to  ∼ 70% for a 1∕72° model, so resolving scales globally requires substantially finer resolution than the current state of the art. We quantify the benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1∕12° global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-ε vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without tides. The benefits of resolution are particularly apparent in eastern boundary upwelling zones. To explore the balance between the size of a globally refined model and that of multiscale modelling options (e.g. finite element, finite volume or a two-way nesting approach), we consider a simple scale analysis and a conceptual grid refining approach. We put this analysis in the context of evolving computer systems, discussing model turnaround time, scalability and resource costs. Using a simple cost model compared to a reference configuration (taken to be a 1∕4° global model in 2011) and the increasing performance of the UK Research Councils' computer facility, we estimate an unstructured mesh multiscale approach, resolving process scales down to 1.5km, would use a comparable share of the computer resource by 2021, the two-way nested multiscale approach by 2022, and a 1∕72° global model by 2026. However, we also note that a 1∕12° global model would not have a comparable computational cost to a 1° global model in 2017 until 2027. Hence, we conclude that for computationally expensive models (e.g. for oceanographic research or operational oceanography), resolving scales to  ∼ 1.5km would be routinely practical in about a decade given substantial effort on numerical and computational development. For complex Earth system models, this extends to about 2 decades, suggesting the focus here needs to be on improved process parameterisation to meet these challenges

Evaluating the impact of atmospheric forcing and air–sea coupling on near-coastal regional ocean prediction

Atmospheric forcing applied as ocean model boundary conditions can have a critical impact on the quality of ocean forecasts. This paper assesses the sensitivity of an eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) regional ocean model of the north-west European Shelf (NWS) to the choice of atmospheric forcing and atmosphere–ocean coupling. The analysis is focused on a month-long simulation experiment for July 2014 and evaluation of simulated sea surface temperature (SST) in a shallow near-coastal region to the south-west of the UK (Celtic Sea and western English Channel). Observations of the ocean and atmosphere are used to evaluate model results, with a particular focus on the L4 ocean buoy from the Western Channel Observatory as a rare example of co-located data above and below the sea surface. The impacts of differences in the atmospheric forcing are illustrated by comparing results from an ocean model run in forcing mode using operational global-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with an ocean model run forced by a convective-scale regional atmosphere model. The value of dynamically representing feedbacks between the atmosphere and ocean state is assessed via the use of these model components within a fully coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere system. Simulated SSTs show considerable sensitivity to atmospheric forcing and to the impact of model coupling in near-coastal areas. A warm ocean bias relative to in situ observations in the simulation forced by global-scale NWP (0.7 K in the model domain) is shown to be reduced (to 0.4 K) via the use of the 1.5 km resolution regional atmospheric forcing. When simulated in coupled mode, this bias is further reduced (by 0.2 K). Results demonstrate much greater variability of both the surface heat budget terms and the near-surface winds in the convective-scale atmosphere model data, as might be expected. Assessment of the surface heat budget and wind forcing over the ocean is challenging due to a scarcity of observations. However, it can be demonstrated that the wind speed over the ocean simulated by the convective-scale atmosphere did not agree as well with the limited number of observations as the global-scale NWP data did. Further partially coupled experiments are discussed to better understand why the degraded wind forcing does not detrimentally impact on SST results

Research priorities in support of ocean monitoring and forecasting at the Met Office

Ocean monitoring and forecasting services are increasingly being used by a diverse community of public and commercial organizations. The Met Office, as the body responsible for severe weather prediction, has for many years been involved in providing forecasts of aspects of the marine environment. This paper describes how these have evolved to include a range of wave, surge, and ocean reanalysis, analysis, and forecasts services. To support these services, and to ensure they evolve to meet the demands of users and are based on the best available science, a number of scientific challenges need to be addressed. The paper goes on to summarize the key challenges, and highlights some priorities for the ocean monitoring and forecasting research group at the Met Office. There is a need to both develop the underpinning science of the modelling and data assimilation systems and to maximize the benefits from observations and other inputs to the systems. Systematic evaluation underpins this science, and also needs to be the focus of research

Recent Change—North Sea

This chapter discusses past and ongoing change in the following physical variables within the North Sea: temperature, salinity and stratification; currents and circulation; mean sea level; and extreme sea levels. Also considered are carbon dioxide; pH and nutrients; oxygen; suspended particulate matter and turbidity; coastal erosion, sedimentation and morphology; and sea ice. The distinctive character of the Wadden Sea is addressed, with a particular focus on nutrients and sediments. This chapter covers the past 200 years and focuses on the historical development of evidence (measurements, process understanding and models), the form, duration and accuracy of the evidence available, and what the evidence shows in terms of the state and trends in the respective variables. Much work has focused on detecting long-term change in the North Sea region, either from measurements or with models. Attempts to attribute such changes to, for example, anthropogenic forcing are still missing for the North Sea. Studies are urgently needed to assess consistency between observed changes and current expectations, in order to increase the level of confidence in projections of expected future conditions

The impact of ocean‐wave coupling on the upper ocean circulation during storm events

Many human activities rely on accurate knowledge of the sea surface dynamics. This is especially true during storm events, when wave-current interactions might represent a leading order process of the upper ocean. In this study, we assess and analyze the impact of including three wave-dependent processes in the ocean momentum equation of the Met Office North West European Shelf ocean-wave forecasting system on the accuracy of the simulated surface circulation. The analysis is conducted using ocean currents and Stokes drift data produced by different implementations of the coupled forecasting systems to simulate the trajectories of surface (iSphere) and 15 m drogued (SVP) drifters affected by four storms selected from winter 2016. Ocean and wave simulations differ only in the degree of coupling and the skills of the Lagrangian simulations are evaluated by comparing model results against the observed drifter tracks. Results show that, during extreme events, ocean-wave coupling improves the accuracy of the surface dynamics by 4%. Improvements are larger for ocean currents on the shelf (8%) than in the open ocean (4%): this is thought to be due to the synergy between strong tidal currents and more mature decaying waves. We found that the Coriolis-Stokes forcing is the dominant wave-current interaction for both type of drifters; for iSpheres the secondary wave effect is the wave-dependent sea surface roughness while for SVPs the wave-modulated water-side stress is more important. Our results indicate that coupled ocean-wave systems may play a key role for improving the accuracy of particle transport simulations

Irregular wave runup statistics on plane beaches: application of a Boussinesq-type model incorporating a generating-absorbing sponge layer and second-order wave generation

Efficient absorption of reflected waves at the offshore boundary is a prerequisite for the accurate physical or theoretical modelling of long-duration irregular wave runup statistics at uniform, gently sloped beaches. This paper presents an implementation of the method suggested by Zhang et al. (2014) to achieve reflected wave absorption and simultaneous generation and propagation of incident waves in an existing numerical wave flume incorporating a moving boundary wavemaker. A generating–absorbing layer is incorporated within this 1DH hybrid Boussinesq-nonlinear shallow water equation model such that inshore-travelling incident waves, encompassing bound-wave structure approximately correct to second order, propagate unhindered while offshore-travelling reflected waves are absorbed. Once validated, the method is used to compile random wave runup statistics on uniform beach slopes broadly representative of dissipative, intermediate, and reflective beaches. Analyses of the individual runup time series, ensemble statistics and comparison to an empirical formula based on experimental runup data suggest that the main aspects of runup observed in the field are properly represented by the model. Existence of an upper limit on maximum runup is investigated using a simple extreme-value statistical analysis. Spectral saturation is examined by considering ensemble-averaged swash spectra for three representative beach slopes subject to incident waves with two different offshore significant wave heights. All spectra show f^−4 roll-off at high frequencies in agreement with many previous field studies. The effect is also investigated of the swash motions preceding one particular extreme runup event on the eventual maximum runup elevation

The Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) using a 1/12‐degree grid for global forecasts

The Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) ocean–sea-ice analysis and forecasting operational system has been using an ORCA tripolar grid with 1/4° horizontal grid spacing since December 2008. Surface boundary forcing is provided by numerical weather prediction fields from the operational global atmosphere Met Office Unified Model. We present results from a 2-year simulation using a 1/12° global ocean–sea-ice model configuration while keeping a 1/4° data assimilation (DA) set-up. We also describe recent operational data assimilation enhancements that are included in our 1/4° control and 1/12° simulations: a new bias-correction term for sea-level anomaly assimilation and a revised pressure correction algorithm. The primary effect of the first is to decrease the mean and variability of sea-level anomaly increments at high latitudes, whereas the second significantly reduces the vertical velocity standard deviation in the tropical Pacific. The level of improvement achieved with the higher resolution configuration is moderate but consistently satisfactory when measured using neighbourhood verification metrics that provide fairer quantitative comparisons between gridded model fields at different spatial resolutions than traditional root-mean-square metrics. A comparison of the eddy kinetic energy from each configuration and an observation-based product highlights the regions where further system developments are most needed