A Common Protocol for Agent-Based Social Simulation

Traditional (i.e. analytical) modelling practices in the social sciences rely on a very well established, although implicit, methodological protocol, both with respect to the way models are presented and to the kinds of analysis that are performed. Unfortunately, computer-simulated models often lack such a reference to an accepted methodological standard. This is one of the main reasons for the scepticism among mainstream social scientists that results in low acceptance of papers with agent-based methodology in the top journals. We identify some methodological pitfalls that, according to us, are common in papers employing agent-based simulations, and propose appropriate solutions. We discuss each issue with reference to a general characterization of dynamic micro models, which encompasses both analytical and simulation models. In the way, we also clarify some confusing terminology. We then propose a three-stage process that could lead to the establishment of methodological standards in social and economic simulations.Agent-based, simulations, methodology, calibration, validation.

A Common Protocol for Agent-Based Social Simulation

Traditional (i.e. analytical) modelling practices in the social sciences rely on a very well established, although implicit, methodological protocol, both with respect to the way models are presented and to the kinds of analysis that are performed. Unfortunately, computer-simulated models often lack such a reference to an accepted methodological standard. This is one of the main reasons for the scepticism among mainstream social scientists that results in low acceptance of papers with agent-based methodology in the top journals. We identify some methodological pitfalls that, according to us, are common in papers employing agent-based simulations, and propose appropriate solutions. We discuss each issue with reference to a general characterization of dynamic micro models, which encompasses both analytical and simulation models. In the way, we also clarify some confusing terminology. We then propose a three-stage process that could lead to the establishment of methodological standards in social and economic simulations.Agent-Based, Simulations, Methodology, Calibration, Validation, Sensitivity Analysis

Analytical Investigation of Innovation Dynamics Considering Stochasticity in the Evaluation of Fitness

We investigate a selection-mutation model for the dynamics of technological innovation,a special case of reaction-diffusion equations. Although mutations are assumed to increase the variety of technologies, not their average success ("fitness"), they are an essential prerequisite for innovation. Together with a selection of above-average technologies due to imitation behavior, they are the "driving force" for the continuous increase in fitness. We will give analytical solutions for the probability distribution of technologies for special cases and in the limit of large times. The selection dynamics is modelled by a "proportional imitation" of better technologies. However, the assessment of a technology's fitness may be imperfect and, therefore, vary stochastically. We will derive conditions, under which wrong assessment of fitness can accelerate the innovation dynamics, as it has been found in some surprising numerical investigations.Comment: For related work see http://www.helbing.or

Systemische Organisationsberatung oder Organisationsentwicklung: haben Differenzen in den theoretischen Ansätzen praktische Folgen für die Mobbingberatung?

'Der systemischen Organisationsberatung ist es im Laufe des letzten Jahrzehnts gelungen, sich im deutschen Sprachraum semantisch als neuer Typus der Organisationsberatung zu etablieren. Doch unterscheidet sich auch ihre Beratungspraxis von derjenigen des Organisationsberatungsansatzes, von dem sie sich abgrenzen will? Die hier vorgelegte vergleichende empirische Studie zeigt auf der Basis von qualitativen Interviews mit Organisationsberatern und -beraterinnen, die Behörden und Unternehmen in Mobbingfällen beraten, dass in der Beratungspraxis die Realtypen Mediation, Coaching und Organisationsentwicklung zum Einsatz kommen. Es finden sich Hinweise darauf, dass systemische Organisationsberaterinnen eher mit der gesamten Organisation arbeiten, während sich die Mobbingberaterinnen, die sich dem Organisationsentwicklungsansatz zurechnen, eher auf Individuen konzentrieren.' (Autorenreferat)'During the last decade, systemic professional services ('systemische Organisationsberatung') have succeeded in establishing themselves in the German-language area as a novel type of counseling for organizations. But does their counseling practice really differ from what if offered by the organization development approach from which they seek to delimit themselves? A comparative empirical study based on qualitative interviews with practitioners of systemic professional services who provide mobbing counseling for administrations and enterprises shows that in the practice of counseling, real-type mediation, coaching and organization development is being implemented. Findings suggest that practitioners of systemic professional services are more likely to engage the entire organization in the counseling process whereas mobbing counselors who adhere to the organization development approach tend to focus on individuals.' (author's abstract

Pengaruh Layanan Bimbingan Kelompok terhadap Tingkat Stres Warga Binaan Wanita (Kasus Non Narkoba) di Lapas Anak Pekanbaru

This study aimed to determine the effect of group guidance service on stress levels the female inmates (non drug cases) at pekanbaru children's correctional institution. The research method used in this research pre experimental method using The One Group Pre-test Post-test Design. The research wa done twice before the experiment (pre test) and after experiment (post test) with one group of subject. Data analysis used in this research is descriptive qualitative and quantitative analytic. Subjects in this study were selected using non-probability sampling technique with purposive sampling method amounting to 7 non-drug users of non-drug cases. This research was conducted by providing group guidance service for 5 meetings. The analysis was used Wilcoxon test. The result showed significant influence of group guidance service to stress levels (Asymp. Sign obtained at 0,043 where 0,043 < 0,05 = signicficant)

Pengaruh Terapi Spiritual Emotional Freedom Technique (Seft) Melalui Konseling Individu Terhadap Kecanduan Rokok Pada Siswa Pondok Pesantren Darul Qur\u27an Kampar Tahun Ajaran 2014/2015

Smoking dipsomania in the students\u27 environment of course really constrains the achievement of education goal. This research purposes are 1) to know the description of smoking addicted level of student before given the SEFT therapies. 2) To know theraphy applying process of SEFT via individual counselling in decreasing smoking addicted level of the students. 3) To know the description of students smoking addicted level after given the SEFT theraphies. This research uses pre-experimental method designed one group pretest posttest design. The sample of this research are 5 students which experience smoking dipsomania. The dipsomnia level of konseli F before given the theraphy is 70%, decreases until 0% after given the therapy and increases back on post test both of as 66,6%. On konseli D, before given the therapy, the addicted level is as big as 80%, decrease until 0% and increases back on post test both of as 63,3 %. On konseli H before given the theraphy is 73,3%, decreases until 0% after given the therapy and increases back to 46,6 %. On konseli R before given the theraphy is 66,6%, increases bbecome 70 % after given the therapy. But, on post test researcher could not find out how the level of smoking dipsomnia of R since R move to SMK. On konseli A, before given the theraphy is 50%, the pretest result is unknowledgeable because he goes home and never back to the boarding school since the first test, but he returns to the Pesantren Darul Qur\u27an Boarding School on post test and if it was compared with pre- test result,the addicted level of the smoking dipsomnia decrease to 46,6%

The Large Group Interaction Method Open Space Technology. Introduction of Market Mechanism into Organizations

Aus den USA kommend, wird zunehmend auch in Deutschland das Großgruppenverfahren Open Space (Owen 1997) als Methode im Rahmen von langfristigen Prozessen organisationalen Wandels eingesetzt. Open Space ist eine Methode der Organisationsentwicklung, bei der mehr als 30 Personen (häufig mehrere hundert) für die Dauer von drei Tagen hauptsächlich oder immer wieder in einem Raum versammelt sind und sich auf eine gemeinsame Aufgabe konzentrieren. Der vorliegende Aufsatz stellt zunächst das Konzept von Open Space und seine Anwendungspraxis vor. Anschließend konzentriert er sich auf die sozialtheoretische Fundierung dieses Verfahrens: Unter Rückgriff auf Hayek wird die These vertreten, dass das Konzept von Open Space auf der sozialen Koordinationsform des Marktes beruht, die in eine Organisation eingeführt wird, und in dessen Mittelpunkt die Generierung von Wissen steht. Aus dem Transaktionskostenansatz (Williamson) werden Thesen über die Voraussetzungen und die Grenzen für den Einsatz des Open Space-Verfahrens abgeleitet.Open Space Technology (OST) is a more and more often used large-group interaction method in the planning and implementation of major change effects. However, our knowledge about the theoretical foundations of OST is quite unsatisfactory. It is the intention of this article to illuminate the theoretical foundations of OST from a sociological point of view. We put forward three hypotheses: (1) Relying on Hayek we state that OST is a method which introduces the social coordination mechanism of the market into an organization in the center of which is the generation of knowledge. We derive the preconditions and limitations of the use of OST from Williamson's transaction cost economics: (2) OST is to be recommended if otherwise hierarchical failure due to uncertainty and market power or market power and long decision processes would result. (3) OST is no longer the most efficient method if certainty or market power prevail or if opportunism is a problem

Management of aseptic nonunions and severe bone defects: let us get this thing healed!

Effective nonunion and bone defect management requires consideration of multiple potential contributing factors including biomechanics, biology, metabolic, and patient factors. This article reviews these factors as well as several potential nonunion or bone defect treatments including bone grafts, bone graft substitutes, the induced membrane technique, and distraction osteogenesis. A summary of these concepts and guidelines for an overall approach to management are also provided