A Fuzzy Pay-off Method for Real Option Valuation

Real Options analysis offers interesting insights on the value of assets and on the profitability of investments, which has made real options a growing field of academic research and practical application. Real option valuation is, however, often found to be difficult to understand and to implement due to the quite complex mathematics involved. Recent advances in modeling and analysis methods have made real option valuation easier to understand and to implement. This paper presents a new method (fuzzy pay-off method) for real option valuation using fuzzy numbers that is based on findings from earlier real option valuation methods and from fuzzy real option valuation. The method is intuitive to understand and far less complicated than any previous real option valuation model to date. The paper also presents the use of number of different types of fuzzy numbers with the method and an application of the new method in an industry setting.Real Option Valuation; Fuzzy Real Options; Fuzzy Numbers

A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Models for Sentiment Analysis: Customer Reviews of E-Commerce Platforms

Understanding customers\u27 preferences can be vital for companies to improve customer satisfaction. Reviews of products and services written by customers and published on various online platforms offer tremendous potential to gain important insights about customers\u27 opinions. Sentiment classification with various machine learning models has been of great interest to academia and practice for a while, however, the emergence of language transformer models brings forth new avenues of research. In this article, we compare the performance of traditional machine learning models and recently introduced transformer-based techniques on a dataset of customer reviews published on the Trustpilot platform. We found that transformer-based models outperform traditional models, and one can achieve over 98% accuracy. The best performing model shows the same excellent performance independently of the store considered. We also illustrate why it can be sometimes more reliable to use the sentiment polarity assigned by the machine learning model, rather than a numeric rating that is provided by the customer

Automating lead scoring with machine learning: An experimental study

Companies often gather a tremendous amount of data, such as browsing behavior, email activities and other contact data. This data can be the source of important competitive advantage by utilizing it in estimating a contact\u27s purchase probability using predictive analytics. The calculated purchase probability can then be used by companies to solve different business problems, such as optimizing their sales processes. The purpose of this article is to study how machine learning can be used to perform lead scoring as a special application case of making use of purchase probability. Historical behavioral data is used as training data for the classification algorithm, and purchase moments are used to limit the behavioral data for the contacts that have purchased a product in the past. Different ways of aggregating time-series data are tested to ensure that limiting the activities for buyers does not result in model bias. The results suggest that it is possible to estimate the purchase probability of leads using supervised learning algorithms, such as random forest, and that it is possible to obtain business insights from the results using visual analytic

Introduction to Machine Learning and Network Analytics in Finance Minitrack

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A BM III/II. csoportfőnöksége által az 1975–1980 közötti időszakban foglalkoztatott hálózatra vonatkozó adatok elemzése

A titkosszolgálatok feladataik ellátásához több forrásból is gyűjtenek információkat. Ebbe beletartoznak a nyílt források, a technikai információgyűjtés, a titkosszolgálati együttműködések, végül, de nem utolsósorban a titkosszolgálatokkal együttműködő személyek. Ez utóbbi a titkosszolgálati tevékenység 6000 évvel ezelőtti megjelenése óta fő eleme ennek a rendszernek. A hidegháború ideje alatt a magyar állambiztonsági szervek is kiemelten kezelték a munkájukat segítő személyeket. Jelen tanulmányban a kémelhárító csoportfőnökség által foglalkoztatott hálózatot kívánom bemutatni az 1975–1980 közötti időszakban. Kitérek olyan elemekre, mint a foglalkoztatott személyek funkciója, képzettsége és a kémelhárítás szempontjából lényegi adatokra is, mint például az állampolgárságra vagy éppen az idegen nyelvek ismeretére. A publikációval a célom egyrészt bepillantást engedni ebbe a kevéssé ismert területbe, illetve röviden értékelni az adatokat a Helsinki záróokmány 1975-es aláírása tükrében

A köztársasági elnökök megválasztása Magyarországon, 1990-2012

In my project I paid attention to the six republican presidential elections after the system change. In Hungary the President of the Republic is chosen by the parliament. In the past twenty-two years though the possibility of direct elections was considered many times. In the first part of my project I collected the thoughts about direct presidential elections. In the next part I described the procedure of election before and after 2012. Next I analyzed each election deeper, with two main aspects of analysis. The first aspect is the circumstances of the choosing of candidates. I examined how each candidate could become a potential nominee. The second aspect is the analysis of the votes during the elections. The election procedure suggests that the government and the opposition should agree in the person of the candidate. I examined in my project if this really happens in practice. The important statement of my work is that the ruling party or parties with their two-thirds of votes don’t consult with the opposition about the person of the candidate. We can say that in most cases the candidate of the government will become the President of the Republic, such evidence that there was only one election when the candidate of the opposition won, in 2005. Therefore the result of the parliamentary elections has great influence on the person of the President of the Republic. The most important statement of my project is that during the six elections so far there was a consensus between the government and the opposition only once, in 1990

The Appearance of Awareness Related to Counter Intelligence in the Home Affairs Review in the Early 1960s = A kémelhárító tevékenységgel kapcsolatos tudatosító tevékenység megjelenése a Belügyi Szemlében az ­1960-as évek elején

In the early 1960s, there were several events in the world and in Hungary that posed a decisive impact on the work of state security, including the field of counter intelligence. Political shifts in the socialist countries that began in the second half of the 1950s, including a confrontation with the former Stalinist system, the need to win over society in detecting crime, and the necessary broadening of relations between the two opposing blocs, all affected state security; also the reorganisation of the Ministry of the Interior (BM) in 1962, but also the rethinking of the professional journal of the Ministry of the Interior (Police Review) and its launch as the Home Affairs Review in 1963. The purpose of the present writing is to overview how those changes appeared in the articles of the Home Affairs Review with regard to one of the main areas of state security, the counter intelligence. | Az 1960-as évek elején több olyan esemény is történt a világban és Magyarországon, amely meghatározó volt a magyar állambiztonsági munka, azon belül is a kémelhárítás szempontjából. A szocialista országokban az ­1950-es évek második felében elindult politikai irányváltás, többek között a korábbi, sztálini rendszerrel való szembefordulás, a társadalom megnyerésének igénye a bűncselekmények felderítésében vagy a két szemben álló tömb kapcsolatainak szükségszerű kiszélesedése mind-mind hatással volt az állambiztonság feladatellátására. Szintén idesorolható a Belügyminisztérium (BM) 1962-es átszervezése, de a BM szakmai folyóiratának, a Rendőrségi Szemlének az újragondolása és Belügyi Szemleként történő 1963-as elindulása. Jelen írás célja annak áttekintése, hogy e változások hatásai hogyan jelentkeztek a Belügyi Szemle cikkeiben az állambiztonság egyik meghatározó területét, a kémelhárítási munkát érintően