2,621 research outputs found
On Identifying and Mitigating Bias in the Estimation of the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate
The relative case fatality rates (CFRs) between groups and countries are key
measures of relative risk that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical
resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the middle of an
active outbreak when surveillance data is the primary source of information,
estimating these quantities involves compensating for competing biases in time
series of deaths, cases, and recoveries. These include time- and severity-
dependent reporting of cases as well as time lags in observed patient outcomes.
In the context of COVID-19 CFR estimation, we survey such biases and their
potential significance. Further, we analyze theoretically the effect of certain
biases, like preferential reporting of fatal cases, on naive estimators of CFR.
We provide a partially corrected estimator of these naive estimates that
accounts for time lag and imperfect reporting of deaths and recoveries. We show
that collection of randomized data by testing the contacts of infectious
individuals regardless of the presence of symptoms would mitigate bias by
limiting the covariance between diagnosis and death. Our analysis is
supplemented by theoretical and numerical results and a simple and fast
open-source codebase at https://github.com/aangelopoulos/cfr-covid-19 .Comment: Harvard Data Science Review (2020) article available at
https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/y9vc2u3
Spectral analysis of Swift long GRBs with known redshift
We study the spectral and energetics properties of 47 long-duration gamma-ray
bursts (GRBs) with known redshift, all of them detected by the Swift satellite.
Due to the narrow energy range (15-150 keV) of the Swift-BAT detector, the
spectral fitting is reliable only for fitting models with 2 or 3 parameters. As
high uncertainty and correlation among the errors is expected, a careful
analysis of the errors is necessary. We fit both the power law (PL, 2
parameters) and cut--off power law (CPL, 3 parameters) models to the
time-integrated spectra of the 47 bursts, and present the corresponding
parameters, their uncertainties, and the correlations among the uncertainties.
The CPL model is reliable only for 29 bursts for which we estimate the nuf_nu
peak energy Epk. For these GRBs, we calculate the energy fluence and the rest-
frame isotropic-equivalent radiated energy, Eiso, as well as the propagated
uncertainties and correlations among them. We explore the distribution of our
homogeneous sample of GRBs on the rest-frame diagram E'pk vs Eiso. We confirm a
significant correlation between these two quantities (the "Amati" relation) and
we verify that, within the uncertainty limits, no outliers are present. We also
fit the spectra to a Band model with the high energy power law index frozen to
-2.3, obtaining a rather good agreement with the "Amati" relation of non-Swift
GRBs.Comment: 16 pages. To appear in MNRAS. Minor changes were introduced in this
last versio
Stirring Unmagnetized Plasma
A new concept for spinning unmagnetized plasma is demonstrated
experimentally. Plasma is confined by an axisymmetric multi-cusp magnetic field
and biased cathodes are used to drive currents and impart a torque in the
magnetized edge. Measurements show that flow viscously couples momentum from
the magnetized edge (where the plasma viscosity is small) into the unmagnetized
core (where the viscosity is large) and that the core rotates as a solid body.
To be effective, collisional viscosity must overcome the ion-neutral drag due
to charge exchange collisions
Isolated elliptical galaxies in the local Universe
We have studied a sample of 89 very isolated, elliptical galaxies at z < 0.08
and compared their properties with elliptical galaxies located in a
high-density environment such as the Coma supercluster. Our aim is to probe the
role of environment on the morphological transformation and quenching of
elliptical galaxies as a function of mass. In addition, we elucidate the nature
of a particular set of blue and star-forming isolated ellipticals identified
here. We study physical properties of ellipticals such as color, specific star
formation rate, galaxy size, and stellar age, as a function of stellar mass and
environment based on SDSS data. We analyze the blue star-forming isolated
ellipticals in more detail, through photometric characterization using GALFIT,
and infer their star formation history using STARLIGHT. Among the isolated
ellipticals ~ 20% are blue, 8% are star forming, and ~ 10% are recently
quenched, while among the Coma ellipticals ~ 8% are blue and just <= 1% are
star forming or recently quenched. There are four isolated galaxies (~ 4.5%)
that are blue and star forming at the same time. These galaxies, with masses
between 7 x 10^9 and 2 x 10^10 h-2 M_sun, are also the youngest galaxies with
light-weighted stellar ages <= 1 Gyr and exhibit bluer colors toward the galaxy
center. Around 30-60% of their present-day luminosity, but only < 5% of their
present-day mass, is due to star formation in the last 1 Gyr. The processes of
morphological transformation and quenching seem to be in general independent of
environment since most of elliptical galaxies are 'red and dead', although the
transition to the red sequence should be faster for isolated ellipticals. In
some cases, the isolated environment seems to propitiate the rejuvenation of
ellipticals by recent (< 1 Gyr) cold gas accretion.Comment: 23 pages, 15 figures (16 pages and 9 figures without appendices).
A&A, in pres
Self-trapping at the liquid vapor critical point
Experiments suggest that localization via self-trapping plays a central role
in the behavior of equilibrated low mass particles in both liquids and in
supercritical fluids. In the latter case, the behavior is dominated by the
liquid-vapor critical point which is difficult to probe, both experimentally
and theoretically. Here, for the first time, we present the results of
path-integral computations of the characteristics of a self-trapped particle at
the critical point of a Lennard-Jones fluid for a positive particle-atom
scattering length. We investigate the influence of the range of the
particle-atom interaction on trapping properties, and the pick-off decay rate
for the case where the particle is ortho-positronium.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, revtex4 preprin
A volume-based hydrodynamic approach to sound wave propagation in a monatomic gas
We investigate sound wave propagation in a monatomic gas using a volume-based
hydrodynamic model. In Physica A vol 387(24) (2008) pp6079-6094, a microscopic
volume-based kinetic approach was proposed by analyzing molecular spatial
distributions; this led to a set of hydrodynamic equations incorporating a
mass-density diffusion component. Here we find that these new mass-density
diffusive flux and volume terms mean that our hydrodynamic model, uniquely,
reproduces sound wave phase speed and damping measurements with excellent
agreement over the full range of Knudsen number. In the high Knudsen number
(high frequency) regime, our volume-based model predictions agree with the
plane standing waves observed in the experiments, which existing kinetic and
continuum models have great difficulty in capturing. In that regime, our
results indicate that the "sound waves" presumed in the experiments may be
better thought of as "mass-density waves", rather than the pressure waves of
the continuum regime.Comment: Revised to aid clarification (no changes to presented model); typos
corrected, figures added, paper title change
Photometric Decomposition of Barred Galaxies
We present a non-parametric method for decomposition of the light of disk
galaxies into disk, bulge and bar components. We have developed and tested the
method on a sample of 68 disk galaxies for which we have acquired I-band
photometry. The separation of disk and bar light relies on the single
assumption that the bar is a straight feature with a different ellipticity and
position angle from that of the projected disk. We here present the basic
method, but recognise that it can be significantly refined. We identify bars in
only 47% of the more nearly face-on galaxies in our sample. The fraction of
light in the bar has a broad range from 1.3% to 40% of the total galaxy light.
If low-luminosity galaxies have more dominant halos, and if halos contribute to
bar stability, the luminosity functions of barred and unbarred galaxies should
differ markedly; while our sample is small, we find only a slight difference of
low significance.Comment: Accepted to appear in AJ, 36 pages, 9 figures, full on-line figures
available at http://www.physics.rutgers.edu/~sellwood/Reese.htm
Revisiting Clifford algebras and spinors III: conformal structures and twistors in the paravector model of spacetime
This paper is the third of a series of three, and it is the continuation of
math-ph/0412074 and math-ph/0412075. After reviewing the conformal spacetime
structure, conformal maps are described in Minkowski spacetime as the twisted
adjoint representation of the group Spin_+(2,4), acting on paravectors.
Twistors are then presented via the paravector model of Clifford algebras and
related to conformal maps in the Clifford algebra over the lorentzian R{4,1}$
spacetime. We construct twistors in Minkowski spacetime as algebraic spinors
associated with the Dirac-Clifford algebra Cl(1,3)(C) using one lower spacetime
dimension than standard Clifford algebra formulations, since for this purpose
the Clifford algebra over R{4,1} is also used to describe conformal maps,
instead of R{2,4}. Although some papers have already described twistors using
the algebra Cl(1,3)(C), isomorphic to Cl(4,1), the present formulation sheds
some new light on the use of the paravector model and generalizations.Comment: 17 page
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