Ecology of Juvenile Walleye Pollock, Theragra chalcogramma: Papers from the workshop "The Importance of Prerecruit Walleye Pollock to the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ecosystems" Seattle, Washington, 28-30 October 1993

The Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC), National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), hosted an international workshop, 'The Importance of Prerecruit Walleye Pollock to the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ecosystems," from 28 to 30 October 1993. This workshop was held in conjunction with the annual International North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) meeting held in Seattle. Nearly 100 representatives from government agencies, universities, and the fishing industry in Canada, Japan, the People's Republic of China, Russia, and the United States took part in the workshop to review and discuss current knowledge on juvenile pollock from the postlarval period to the time they recruit to the fisheries. In addition to its importance to humans as a major commercial species, pollock also serves as a major forage species for many marine fishes, birds, and mammals in the North Pacific region. (PDF file contains 236 pages.

Climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems: Toward robust approaches for managing risks and uncertainties

The Polar Regions chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems and associated consequences for humans. It also includes identification of confidence for major findings based on agreement across studies and weight of evidence. Sources of uncertainty, from the extent of available datasets, to resolution of projection models, to the complexity and understanding of underlying social-ecological linkages and dynamics, can influence confidence. Here we, marine ecosystem scientists all having experience as lead authors of IPCC reports, examine the evolution of confidence in observed and projected climate-linked changes in polar ecosystems since SROCC. Further synthesis of literature on polar marine ecosystems has been undertaken, especially within IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group II; for the Southern Ocean also the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO). These publications incorporate new scientific findings that address some of the knowledge gaps identified in SROCC. While knowledge gaps have been narrowed, we still find that polar region assessments reflect pronounced geographical skewness in knowledge regarding the responses of marine life to changing climate and associated literature. There is also an imbalance in scientific focus; especially research in Antarctica is dominated by physical oceanography and cryosphere science with highly fragmented approaches and only short-term funding to ecology. There are clear indications that the scientific community has made substantial progress in its ability to project ecosystem responses to future climate change through the development of coupled biophysical models of the region facilitated by increased computer power allowing for improved resolution in space and time. Lastly, we point forward—providing recommendations for future advances for IPCC assessments.publishedVersio

Marine Fisheries Stock Assessment Improvement Plan: report of the National Marine Fisheries Service National Task Force for Improving Fish Stock Assessments

This report argues for greatly increased resources in terms of data collection facilities and staff to collect, process, and analyze the data, and to communicate the results, in order for NMFS to fulfill its mandate to conserve and manage marine resources. In fact, the authors of this report had great difficulty defining the "ideal" situation to which fisheries stock assessments and management should aspire. One of the primary objectives of fisheries management is to develop sustainable harvest policies that minimize the risks of overfishing both target species and associated species. This can be achieved in a wide spectrum of ways, ranging between the following two extremes. The first is to implement only simple management measures with correspondingly simple assessment demands, which will usually mean setting fishing mortality targets at relatively low levels in order to reduce the risk of unknowingly overfishing or driving ecosystems towards undesirable system states. The second is to expand existing data collection and analysis programs to provide an adequate knowledge base that can support higher fishing mortality targets while still ensuring low risk to target and associated species and ecosystems. However, defining "adequate" is difficult, especially when scientists have not even identified all marine species, and information on catches, abundances, and life histories of many target species, and most associated species, is sparse. Increasing calls from the public, stakeholders, and the scientific community to implement ecosystem-based stock assessment and management make it even more difficult to define "adequate," especially when "ecosystem-based management" is itself not well-defined. In attempting to describe the data collection and assessment needs for the latter, the authors took a pragmatic approach, rather than trying to estimate the resources required to develop a knowledge base about the fine-scale detailed distributions, abundances, and associations of all marine species. Thus, the specified resource requirements will not meet the expectations of some stakeholders. In addition, the Stock Assessment Improvement Plan is designed to be complementary to other related plans, and therefore does not duplicate the resource requirements detailed in those plans, except as otherwise noted

Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections

Management strategy analysis for multispecies fisheries including technical interactions and human behavior in modeling management decisions and fishing

A multispecies fishery management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework based on the example of the groundfish fishery in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region of Alaska was used to examine the interplay between a bycatch species and three groundfish species. The study introduces a framework for a realistic multispecies fishery MSE by accounting for fleet dynamics, multispecies fishery quota allocation, and the temporal dynamics of technical interactions. The quota allocation and the fleet dynamics models were implemented using linear programming, and regression approaches were used to realistically project future usersâ behavioral response to changes in the fishery. Models were calibrated and then validated using historical and out-of-sample data, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for technical interactions and their inter-annual dynamics for both quota allocation and fleet dynamics to design a realistic multispecies fishery MSE (without them, the amount of lost yield increased). Particular attention should therefore be paid to understanding human behavior as well as its uncertainty and to refining approaches to incorporate this information into a multispecies fishery management strategy analysis.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Are multispecies models an improvement on single-species models for measuring fishing impacts on marine ecosystems?

We review the application of multispecies models as tools for evaluating impacts of fishing on marine communities. Four types of model are identified: Descriptive multispecies, dynamic multispecies, aggregate system, and dynamic system models. The strengths and weaknesses of multispecies models and their ability to evaluate the causal mechanisms underlying shifts in production are examined. This comparison provides a basis for assessing the benefits of each modelling approach as a tool for evaluating impacts of fishing in marine ecosystems. Benefits of multispecies models include: improved estimates of natural mortality and recruitment; better understanding of spawner-recruit relationships and of variability in growth rates; alternative views on biological reference points; and a framework for evaluating ecosystem properties. Populations are regulated by competition (food limitation), predation, and environmental variability. Each factor may influence different life-history stages, locally or regionally. However, most multispecies models address only a subset of these factors, often aggregated over functionally different species or age groups. Models that incorporate the important interactions at specific stages and scales will be necessary if they are to continue to supplement the information provided by single-species models. (C) 2000 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems: Toward robust approaches for managing risks and uncertainties

The Polar Regions chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems and associated consequences for humans. It also includes identification of confidence for major findings based on agreement across studies and weight of evidence. Sources of uncertainty, from the extent of available datasets, to resolution of projection models, to the complexity and understanding of underlying social-ecological linkages and dynamics, can influence confidence. Here we, marine ecosystem scientists all having experience as lead authors of IPCC reports, examine the evolution of confidence in observed and projected climate-linked changes in polar ecosystems since SROCC. Further synthesis of literature on polar marine ecosystems has been undertaken, especially within IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group II; for the Southern Ocean also the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO). These publications incorporate new scientific findings that address some of the knowledge gaps identified in SROCC. While knowledge gaps have been narrowed, we still find that polar region assessments reflect pronounced geographical skewness in knowledge regarding the responses of marine life to changing climate and associated literature. There is also an imbalance in scientific focus; especially research in Antarctica is dominated by physical oceanography and cryosphere science with highly fragmented approaches and only short-term funding to ecology. There are clear indications that the scientific community has made substantial progress in its ability to project ecosystem responses to future climate change through the development of coupled biophysical models of the region facilitated by increased computer power allowing for improved resolution in space and time. Lastly, we point forward—providing recommendations for future advances for IPCC assessments