"Is My Crown Better than Your Euro? Exchange Rates and Public Opinion on the European Single Currency"

The No to the euro in referendums in Denmark and Sweden has been characterized as a public rebellion against an elite project and a sign of a general Euroscepticism among the citizens. However, it is often ignored that support for the euro fluctuates significantly over time in these countries, and hence analysing referendum outcomes simply in terms on static factors will provide only part of the explanation. In contrast to existing studies, this paper provides an analysis of the short-term dynamics in public support for the euro in the period leading up to the referendums. We thus address the question of why public attitudes towards monetary integration vary over time. We argue that at least part of the answer can be found in exchange rate fluctuations. Existing studies have neglected the fact that the national currency is not only a purely monetary indicator, but also carries symbolic weight. The public is therefore less likely to surrender their national currency when it is strong than when it is weak. They are also less willing to accept a replacement currency (e.g. the euro) when it is seen as weak vis-à-vis other world currencies. Our analysis of the two euro campaigns lends credence to our proposition that exchange rates matter. Moreover, we test impact of exchange rate changes on support of the euro using time series analysis. We find that the rapid fall in the value of the euro vis-à-vis the dollar contributed to the Danish rejection of the euro, whereas the strength of the Swedish currency made the Swedes more reluctant to relinquish their crown

Why did voters choose Brexit?

The UK voted to leave the European Union in its referendum on 23 June. Sara B. Hobolt writes that although the result has come as a shock to Britain and the rest of Europe, the signs were there that the leave campaign could win and the discontent among British voters is mirrored in many other countries across Europe

Portfolio saliency and ministerial turnover: Dynamics in Scandinavian postwar cabinets

© 2013 The Author(s) Scandinavian Political Studies © 2013 Nordic Political Science Association. This is the accepted version of the following article: Hansen, M. E., Klemmensen, R., Hobolt, S. B. and Bäck, H. (2013), Portfolio Saliency and Ministerial Turnover: Dynamics in Scandinavian Postwar Cabinets. Scandinavian Political Studies, 36: 227–248, which has been published in final form at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9477.12004/abstract.Why do certain ministers remain in their post for years while others have their time in office cut short? Drawing on the broader literature on portfolio allocation, this article argues that the saliency of individual portfolios shapes ministerial turnover. The main argument is that ministerial dismissals are less likely to occur the higher the saliency attributed to the ministerial portfolio since ministers appointed to important posts are more likely to have been through extensive screening before appointment. Importantly, it is also posited in the article that the effect of portfolio salience is conditioned by government approval ratings: when government ratings are on the decline, prime ministers are less likely to reshuffle or fire important ministers than when approval ratings are improving. To test these claims, Cox proportional hazards models are applied to a new dataset on ministerial turnover in Scandinavia during the postwar period. The results strongly support the proposition that portfolio saliency matters for ministerial survival, and that this effect is moderated by government popularity

What lessons can Britain learn from other EU referendums?

Although the upcoming UK referendum on EU membership will only be the second time the British electorate has voted on its participation in the integration project, over 50 referendums have been held elsewhere in Europe on other aspects of European integration. Sara Hobolt assesses what lessons these referendums might have for the UK, noting that there are four key characteristics of ballots on the EU: that the campaign matters, party messages are important, the framing of the “reversion point” is crucial, and that EU referendums are not just about the EU

Getting the timing right: Cameron weighs up the pros and cons of a June 2016 referendum

The EU referendum could be held as soon as June – which leaves little time for David Cameron to negotiate the reforms he wants to make. On the other hand, says Sara Hobolt, the PM will be wary of delaying the vote and falling prey to a mid-term slump in popularity. Should he call the referendum as soon as possible – or give himself more time to win over his European peers

Voters have punished the ‘elite’ – and this is not just a British phenomenon

The UK has voted to leave the European Union. Sara Hobolt writes that although the result has come as a shock to Britain and the rest of Europe, the signs were there that the Leave campaign could win and the discontent among British voters is mirrored in many other countries across Europe. Voters took the opportunity to ‘stick it to the elite’ and punish mainstream politicians for their reluctance to address concerns about migration

A vote to leave the EU may have a detrimental impact on Parliament

What will life be like in the UK House of Commons and House of Lords if the UK leaves the EU? And if it is a vote to remain? Will Parliament have more or less influence on the government’s dealings with its European partners post-23 June? Sara Hobolt (left) and Sara Hagemann report on the expert evidence gathered at the eighth LSE Commission on the Future of Britain in Europe

Which argument will win the referendum – immigration, or the economy?

The UK is set to vote on its EU membership on Thursday. Which arguments have resonated most with voters throughout the campaign? Sara Hobolt and Christopher Wratil present survey evidence indicating that immigration and the economy have been the most prominent topics. Undecided voters have, however, been less moved by these issues and cite misinformation and distrust in politicians as their reasons for remaining on the fence