Analysis of the spatial variation in the parameters of the SWAT model with application in Flanders, Northern Belgium

International audienceOperational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future) time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders), with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the simulation of a large river basin. Keywords: hydrological model, regionalisation, parameterisation, spatial variabilit

Effects of watershed and riparian zone characteristics on nutrient concentrations in the River Scheldt Basin

International audienceThe relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics on surface water nutrient concentrations was examined in 173 watersheds within two subcatchments (Upper-Scheldt and Nete) of the River Scheldt Basin (Flanders, Belgium). Each watershed was described by seasonal rainfall, discharge loading of point sources, morphological characteristics (area, average slope, drainage density, elongation), land use and soil properties (soil texture and drainage). Partial regression analysis revealed that soil drainage variables had the strongest influence on nutrient concentrations. Additional influence was exerted by land use and point source loading variables. Nitrate concentrations were positively correlated with effluent loadings coming from wastewater treatment plants and with the area of agricultural land. Phosphate concentrations were best explained by effluent loadings of industrial point sources and by the area of urban land. Land use close to the river was not a better predictor of nitrate and phosphate concentrations than land use away from the river. This suggests that the mediating impact of riparian zones is rather explained by the hydrologic pathways within the buffer strip

PHP48 COST SENSITIVENESS AND PHYSICIAN TREATMENT CHOICES

Objectives To explore the relationship between nodule count and lung cancer probability in baseline low-dose CT lung cancer screening. Materials and Methods Included were participants from the NELSON trial with at least one baseline nodule (3392 participants [45% of screen-group], 7258 nodules). We determined nodule count per participant. Malignancy was confirmed by histology. Nodules not diagnosed as screen-detected or interval cancer until the end of the fourth screening round were regarded as benign. We compared lung cancer probability per nodule count category. Results 1746 (51.5%) participants had one nodule, 800 (23.6%) had two nodules, 354 (10.4%) had three nodules, 191 (5.6%) had four nodules, and 301 (8.9%) had > 4 nodules. Lung cancer in a baseline nodule was diagnosed in 134 participants (139 cancers; 4.0%). Median nodule count in participants with only benign nodules was 1 (Inter-quartile range [IQR]: 1–2), and 2 (IQR 1–3) in participants with lung cancer (p = NS). At baseline, malignancy was detected mostly in the largest nodule (64/66 cancers). Lung cancer probability was 62/1746 (3.6%) in case a participant had one nodule, 33/800 (4.1%) for two nodules, 17/354 (4.8%) for three nodules, 12/191 (6.3%) for four nodules and 10/301 (3.3%) for > 4 nodules (p = NS). Conclusion In baseline lung cancer CT screening, half of participants with lung nodules have more than one nodule. Lung cancer probability does not significantly change with the number of nodules. Baseline nodule count will not help to differentiate between benign and malignant nodules. Each nodule found in lung cancer screening should be assessed separately independent of the presence of other nodules

Protocol of the Healthy Brain Study: An accessible resource for understanding the human brain and how it dynamically and individually operates in its bio-social context

The endeavor to understand the human brain has seen more progress in the last few decades than in the previous two millennia. Still, our understanding of how the human brain relates to behavior in the real world and how this link is modulated by biological, social, and environmental factors is limited. To address this, we designed the Healthy Brain Study (HBS), an interdisciplinary, longitudinal, cohort study based on multidimensional, dynamic assessments in both the laboratory and the real world. Here, we describe the rationale and design of the currently ongoing HBS. The HBS is examining a population-based sample of 1,000 healthy participants (age 30-39) who are thoroughly studied across an entire year. Data are collected through cognitive, affective, behavioral, and physiological testing, neuroimaging, bio-sampling, questionnaires, ecological momentary assessment, and real-world assessments using wearable devices. These data will become an accessible resource for the scientific community enabling the next step in understanding the human brain and how it dynamically and individually operates in its bio-social context. An access procedure to the collected data and bio-samples is in place and published on https://www.healthybrainstudy.nl/en/data-and-methods. https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/795

Protocol of the Healthy Brain Study: An accessible resource for understanding the human brain and how it dynamically and individually operates in its bio-social context

The endeavor to understand the human brain has seen more progress in the last few decades than in the previous two millennia. Still, our understanding of how the human brain relates to behavior in the real world and how this link is modulated by biological, social, and environmental factors is limited. To address this, we designed the Healthy Brain Study (HBS), an interdisciplinary, longitudinal, cohort study based on multidimensional, dynamic assessments in both the laboratory and the real world. Here, we describe the rationale and design of the currently ongoing HBS. The HBS is examining a population-based sample of 1,000 healthy participants (age 30-39) who are thoroughly studied across an entire year. Data are collected through cognitive, affective, behavioral, and physiological testing, neuroimaging, bio-sampling, questionnaires, ecological momentary assessment, and real-world assessments using wearable devices. These data will become an accessible resource for the scientific community enabling the next step in understanding the human brain and how it dynamically and individually operates in its bio-social context. An access procedure to the collected data and bio-samples is in place and published on https://www.healthybrainstudy.nl/en/data-and-methods/access. Trail registration: https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/7955

Les Cétacés du "Vis booc" (1577-1578) d'Adrien Coenensoen Van Schilperoort (1514-?)

Arvy Lucie, Heuvelmans Bernard. Les cétacés du « Vis booc » (1577-1578) d'Adrien Coenensoen Van Schilperoort (1514-?). In: Revue d'histoire des sciences, tome 32, n°4, 1979. pp. 333-338

Effects of watershed and riparian zone characteristics on nutrient concentrations in the River Scheldt Basin

The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics on surface water nutrient concentrations was examined in 173 watersheds within two subcatchments (Upper-Scheldt and Nete) of the River Scheldt Basin (Flanders, Belgium). Each watershed was described by seasonal rainfall, discharge loading of point sources, morphological characteristics (area, average slope, drainage density, elongation), land use and soil properties (soil texture and drainage). Partial regression analysis revealed that soil drainage variables had the strongest influence on nutrient concentrations. Additional influence was exerted by land use and point source loading variables. Nitrate concentrations were positively correlated with effluent loadings coming from wastewater treatment plants and with the area of agricultural land. Phosphate concentrations were best explained by effluent loadings of industrial point sources and by the area of urban land. Land use close to the river was not a better predictor of nitrate and phosphate concentrations than land use away from the river. This suggests that the mediating impact of riparian zones is rather explained by the hydrologic pathways within the buffer strip