Ancient humans influenced the current spatial genetic structure of common walnut populations in Asia

Common walnut (Juglans regia L) is an economically important species cultivated worldwide for its wood and nuts. It is generally accepted that J. regia survived and grew spontaneously in almost completely isolated stands in its Asian native range after the Last Glacial Maximum. Despite its natural geographic isolation, J. regia evolved over many centuries under the influence of human management and exploitation. We evaluated the hypothesis that the current distribution of natural genetic resources of common walnut in Asia is, at least in part, the product of ancient anthropogenic dispersal, human cultural interactions, and afforestation. Genetic analysis combined with ethno-linguistic and historical data indicated that ancient trade routes such as the Persian Royal Road and Silk Road enabled long-distance dispersal of J. regia from Iran and Trans-Caucasus to Central Asia, and from Western to Eastern China. Ancient commerce also disrupted the local spatial genetic structure of autochthonous walnut populations between Tashkent and Samarkand (Central- Eastern Uzbekistan), where the northern and central routes of the Northern Silk Road converged. A significant association between ancient language phyla and the genetic structure of walnut populations is reported even after adjustment for geographic distances that could have affected both walnut gene flow and human commerce over the centuries. Beyond the economic importance of common walnut, our study delineates an alternative approach for understanding how the genetic resources of long-lived perennial tree species may be affected by the interaction of geography and human history

Rethinking the history of common walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Europe: Its origins and human interactions

Common walnut (Juglans regia L) is an economically important species cultivated worldwide for its high-quality wood and nuts. It is generally accepted that after the last glaciation J. regia survived and grew in almost completely isolated stands in Asia, and that ancient humans dispersed walnuts across Asia and into new habitats via trade and cultural expansion. The history of walnut in Europe is a matter of debate, however. In this study, we estimated the genetic diversity and structure of 91 Eurasian walnut populations using 14 neutral microsatellites. By integrating fossil pollen, cultural, and historical data with population genetics, and approximate Bayesian analysis, we reconstructed the demographic history of walnut and its routes of dispersal across Europe. The genetic data confirmed the presence of walnut in glacial refugia in the Balkans and western Europe. We conclude that human-mediated admixture between Anatolian and Balkan walnut germplasm started in the Early Bronze Age, and between western Europe and the Balkans in eastern Europe during the Roman Empire. A population size expansion and subsequent decline in northeastern and western Europe was detected in the last five centuries. The actual distribution of walnut in Europe resulted from the combined effects of expansion/contraction from multiple refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum and its human exploitation over the last 5,000 years

A horizon scan of issues affecting UK forest management within 50 years

Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next 50 years. These are issues that are presently under-recognized but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritize a longlist of 180 issues. The top 15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on ‘easy wins’ without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous

A horizon scan of issues affecting UK forest management within 50 years

Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next 50 years. These are issues that are presently under-recognized but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritize a longlist of 180 issues. The top 15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on ‘easy wins’ without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

Juglans regia L: genetic variation and provenance performance

A range-wide collection of Juglans regia seeds was undertaken in autumn 1997 from 12 countries, including 25 provenances and 375 half-sib progenies. 2200 seedlings were produced using innovative nursery techniques. The seedlings were planted in three provenance trials in southern England in 1999, the largest of which acted as a combined provenance/progeny trial. After one growing season, survival was 98.9 %, mean height growth 35 cm, and mean stem diameter increment 5 mm. Provenance differences for both height and stem diameter increment were highly significant (p<0.001). There were no significant genotype × environment interactions. Flushing assessments revealed few significant differences between provenances and flushing was complete by early April. Family heritability for tree height was 0.19 at one site and, with combined selection, genetic gain was estimated at 8 %. The effects of three types of treeshelter and a stumping treatment on walnut establishment were tested over three growing seasons. Treeshelters were found beneficial to height increment. However, 120 cm tall shelters promoted early flushing, and consequent risk of increased frost damage, and caused more stem die-back than 75 cm shelters. Stumping promoted rapid early height increment but gave no longer-term benefit. The crown (cd) and stem (dbh) diameter at breast height relationship of open growing trees in Britain was assessed and was highly significant (r2 = 0.96, p<0.001). The regression equation (cd = 2.71 + 17.6dbh) permitted the estimation of suitable planting densities for the provenance trials and the calculation of a thinning regime. Isozyme analysis of the 375 genotypes identified 20 loci in 15 enzyme systems with seed embryo extracts. Using young leaf extracts, the polymorphic locus Pgm-1 indicated low expected heterozygosity of 0.06 both within populations and at the species level. FST and GST estimates, both 0.05, indicated high uniformity among populations. Genetic distance estimates did not identify significant clustering consistent with geographic origin

Juglans regia L: genetic variation and provenance performance:

A range-wide collection of Juglans regia seeds was undertaken in autumn 1997 from 12 countries, including 25 provenances and 375 half-sib progenies. 2200 seedlings were produced using innovative nursery techniques. The seedlings were planted in three provenance trials in southern England in 1999, the largest of which acted as a combined provenance/progeny trial. After one growing season, survival was 98.9 %, mean height growth 35 cm, and mean stem diameter increment 5 mm. Provenance differences for both height and stem diameter increment were highly significant (p<0.001). There were no significant genotype × environment interactions. Flushing assessments revealed few significant differences between provenances and flushing was complete by early April. Family heritability for tree height was 0.19 at one site and, with combined selection, genetic gain was estimated at 8 %. The effects of three types of treeshelter and a stumping treatment on walnut establishment were tested over three growing seasons. Treeshelters were found beneficial to height increment. However, 120 cm tall shelters promoted early flushing, and consequent risk of increased frost damage, and caused more stem die-back than 75 cm shelters. Stumping promoted rapid early height increment but gave no longer-term benefit. The crown (cd) and stem (dbh) diameter at breast height relationship of open growing trees in Britain was assessed and was highly significant (r2 = 0.96, p<0.001). The regression equation (cd = 2.71 + 17.6dbh) permitted the estimation of suitable planting densities for the provenance trials and the calculation of a thinning regime. Isozyme analysis of the 375 genotypes identified 20 loci in 15 enzyme systems with seed embryo extracts. Using young leaf extracts, the polymorphic locus Pgm-1 indicated low expected heterozygosity of 0.06 both within populations and at the species level. FST and GST estimates, both 0.05, indicated high uniformity among populations. Genetic distance estimates did not identify significant clustering consistent with geographic origin

A Review of Modeling Approaches for Understanding and Monitoring the Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy

Understanding the environmental effects of marine energy (ME) devices is fundamental for their sustainable development and efficient regulation. However, measuring effects is difficult given the limited number of operational devices currently deployed. Numerical modeling is a powerful tool for estimating environmental effects and quantifying risks. It is most effective when informed by empirical data and coordinated with the development and implementation of monitoring protocols. We reviewed modeling techniques and information needs for six environmental stressor–receptor interactions related to ME: changes in oceanographic systems, underwater noise, electromagnetic fields (EMFs), changes in habitat, collision risk, and displacement of marine animals. This review considers the effects of tidal, wave, and ocean current energy converters. We summarized the availability and maturity of models for each stressor–receptor interaction and provide examples involving ME devices when available and analogous examples otherwise. Models for oceanographic systems and underwater noise were widely available and sometimes applied to ME, but need validation in real-world settings. Many methods are available for modeling habitat change and displacement of marine animals, but few examples related to ME exist. Models of collision risk and species response to EMFs are still in stages of theory development and need more observational data, particularly about species behavior near devices, to be effective. We conclude by synthesizing model status, commonalities between models, and overlapping monitoring needs that can be exploited to develop a coordinated and efficient set of protocols for predicting and monitoring the environmental effects of ME

Development of a Tool for Navigating the Evidence concerning Land Managers and Woodland Creation in the United Kingdom

Woodland creation has become an important objective for a variety of stakeholders to help tackle the climate and biodiversity crises. One of the key evidence needs is a better understanding of the multiple factors influencing the willingness and ability of landowners and managers to establish new woodlands. To address this gap, a systematic map of evidence was prepared comprising publications from academic journals and grey literature accessed through bibliographic databases (Web of Science, Scopus, and CAB Abstracts), libraries, direct requests to relevant organisations and individuals, and citation tracking from past reviews. A screening process refined the evidence base to 226 studies within the UK. The systematic evidence map codes the content of each study against a comprehensive list comprising actors, drivers of or barriers to woodland creation, and outcomes. These are presented as a freely accessible, interactive online dashboard detailing sources of evidence. The systematic evidence map helps users navigate the evidence, demonstrating where the bulk of the evidence lies and, conversely, several evidence gaps where there is comparatively little evidence. The findings serve as a basis for dialogue with stakeholders to determine priorities for future primary research