Improving warehouse labour efficiency by intentional forecast bias

Purpose – This paper shows that intentional demand forecast bias can improve warehouse capacity planning and labour efficiency. It presents an empirical methodology to detect and implement forecast bias. Design/methodology/approach – A forecast model integrates historical demand information and expert forecasts to support active bias management. A non-linear relationship between labour productivity and forecast bias is employed to optimise efficiency. The business analytic methods are illustrated by a case study in a consumer electronics warehouse, supplemented by a survey among thirty warehouses. Findings – Results indicate that warehouse management systematically over-forecasts order sizes. The case study shows that optimal bias for picking and loading is 30-70 percent with efficiency gains of 5-10 percent, whereas the labour-intensive packing stage does not benefit from bias. The survey results confirm productivity effects of forecast bias. Research implications – Warehouse managers can apply the methodology in their own situation if they systematically register demand forecasts, actual order sizes and labour productivity per warehouse stage. Application is illustrated for a single warehouse, and studies for alternative product categories and labour processes are of interest. Practical implications – Intentional forecast bias can lead to smoother workflows in warehouses and thus result in higher labour efficiency. Required data includes historical data on demand forecasts, order sizes and labour productivity. Implementation depends on labour hiring strategies and cost structures. Originality/value – Operational data support evidence-based warehouse labour management. The case study validates earlier conceptual studies based on artificial data

Cross-border electronic commerce: distance effects and express delivery in European Union markets

This empirical study examines distance effects on cross-border electronic commerce and in particular the importance of express delivery in reducing the time dimension of distance. E-commerce provides suppliers with a range of opportunities to reduce distance as perceived by online buyers. They can reduce psychological barriers to cross-border demand by designing websites that simplify the search for and comparison of products and suppliers across countries. They can reduce cost barriers by applying pricing strategies that redistribute transportation costs, and they can overcome time barriers offering express delivery services. This study of 721 regions in five countries of the European Union shows that distance is not “dead” in e-commerce, that express delivery reduces distance for cross-border demand, and that e-demand delivered by express services is more time sensitive and less price sensitive than e-demand satisfied by standard delivery. The willingness of e-customers to pay for express services is shown to be affected by income and by the relative lead-time benefits and express charges. Furthermore, the adoption of express delivery is positively associated with e-loyalty in terms of repurchase rates. The results confirm the importance for e-suppliers of cleverly designed delivery services to reduce distance in order to attract online customers across borders

Spare part demand forecasting for consumer goods using installed base information

When stopping production, the manufacturer has to decide on the lot size in the final production run to cover spare part demand during the end-of-life phase. This decision can be supported by forecasting how much demand is expected in the future. Forecasts can be obtained from the installed base of the product, that is, the number of products still in use. This type of information is relatively easily available in case of B2B maintenance contracts, but it is more complicated in B2C spare parts supply management. Consumer decisions on whether or not to repair a malfunctioning product depend on the specific product and spare part. Further, consumers may differ in their decisions, for example, for products with fast innovations and changing social trends. Consumer behavior can be accounted for by using appropriate types of installed base, for example, lifetime installed base for essential spare parts of expensive products with long lifecycle, and warranty installed base for products with short lifecycle. This paper proposes a set of installed base concepts with associated simple empirical forecasting methodologies that can be applied in practice for B2C spare parts supply management during the end-of-life phase of consumer products. The methodology is illustrated by case studies for eighteen spare parts of six products from a consumer electronics company. The research hypotheses on which installed base type performs best under which conditions are supported in the majority of cases, and forecasts obtained from installed base are substantially better than simple black box forecasts. Incorporating past sales via installed base therefore supports final production decisions to cover future consumer demand for spare parts

Semantic context effects when naming Japanese kanji, but not Chinese hànzì

The process of reading aloud bare nouns in alphabetic languages is immune to semantic context effects from pictures. This is accounted for by assuming that words in alphabetic languages can be read aloud relatively fast through a sub-lexical grapheme-phoneme conversion (GPC) route or by a direct route from orthography to word form. We examined semantic context effects in a word-naming task in two languages with logographic scripts for which GPC cannot be applied: Japanese kanji and Chinese hanzi. We showed that reading aloud bare nouns is sensitive to semantically related context pictures in Japanese, but not in Chinese. The difference between these two languages is attributed to processing costs caused by multiple pronunciations for Japanese kanji. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

The value of express delivery services for cross-border e-commerce in European Union markets

Further growth of cross-border e-commerce in the European Union markets requires improved express delivery services. The framework presented in this paper identifies relevant contextual factors that affect express delivery adoption rates in European cross-border e-commerce. This framework leads to a set of hypotheses, both on the effects of express deliveries on financial performance indicators (order incidence, order size, and repurchase rate) and on the factors that drive demand for express deliveries (consumer income, logistic costs, and lead-time benefits). A case study provides empirical tests of the hypotheses, using data on about forty thousand sales transactions from a consumer electronics manufacturer’s cross-border online shop. The findings are that express delivery has positive effects on financial performance, as it leads to higher order incidence, larger order size, and higher repurchase rates in cross-border transactions. Demand for express delivery services increases with higher income, larger lead-time benefits, and lower logistic costs. Managers can employ the presented framework to formulate and analyse their own targets for performance and express delivery services

A top-down methodology to calculate the CO2-footprint for terminal operations; the 6-step approach

There is an increasing need for green and effective operations at terminals and in port due to existing and upcoming stricter air quality standards and regulations. At the same time there is an increasing awareness of the need to reduce energy consumption of ports and terminals and to focus on the carbon footprint which is dependent not only on equipment and operations, but also the energy mix and the management of energy consumption. This is an important objective for the terminals but also for a wide variety of stakeholders, such as port authorities and transport service clients. Sustainable terminal operations require a good insight in terminal configurations, the use of equipment and the availability of reliable data about the energy consumption on the terminal. This information is in many cases not available for a variety of reasons, such as the very competitive environment and the competition between terminals, sometimes simply because the information is not known. In this deliverable an innovative top-down approach is presented to calculate the CO2-emissions of terminals. This methodology is named ‘the 6-step-approach’. This approach can be considered as an easy applicable tool to get a brief and coherent overview of the total energy consumption of a terminal. The 6-step approach is a standardised methodology which is coherent with CEN standard CEN 16258 “Methodology for calculation and declaration of energy consumption and GHG emissions of transport services (freight and passengers)”. The CEN standard contributes to the standardisation, comprehensiveness, transparency, consistency, generalization and predetermination. __The methodology consists of 6 steps:__ 1- the operations on the terminal (what is actually happening?) 2- the construction of an analytical model of activities 3- the development of an algorithm based on the analytical model 4- application of the model (preferably with real data, presently mostly based on estimations) 5- valorisation of the outcomes of the model 6- policy recommendations In coherence with the consumption scheme based on the GHG Protocol or to ISO 14064 standard and the CEN EN 16258 standard, the methodology concentrates on three domains of energy consumption: the terminal operations and related equipment, the consumption of reefers and the lighting of the yard. These three elements cover more than 95% of all energy consumption at a terminal. An important contribution of the 6-step approach to the port community is the fact that the model delivers outcomes that can function as the basis for tailor made recommendations that cover almost all activities. Therefore the main objective of the tool is that it can function as a benchmark tool for companies, port authorities, E.U., WorldBank/IMF/OECD, etc. (policy investment). Furthermore the application of tool can be considered as a basis for evaluation (rising awareness and motivation to use energy competently and thoughtfully), organizational investments (modifying operations to increase productivity versus energy consumption), technical modification investments (modifying equipment and systems to reduce consumption/increase productivity), technical purchase investments (put new equipment/systems into operation). But overall, the 6-step approach is a source for inspiration, it gives structure to process and the methodology recognizes the new challenges: to apply the model as a a pro-active methodology that addresses the economic (profit), environmental (planet), and social objectives (people) in one coherent strategy. By doing this, the 6-step approach offers an opportunity for cooperation and interaction between the private firms su

Sortimentsvergelijking beach freesia : herfstbloei 2003

De veredeling van Beach Freesia voor de herfstbloei zorgt voor een geleidelijke vernieuwing van het sortiment. Voor de Freesia kwekers die met (minder energie nodig) en zonder grondkoeling telen is het gewenst om spoedig te weten wat de teelt mogelijkheden zijn van nieuwe cultivars in vergelijking met het bestaande Beach sortiment. Voor dit doel is het gebruikswaarde-onderzoek opgezet. Hierin worden cultivars gedurende tenminste twee jaar onder gelijke teeltomstandigheden met het bestaande Beach sortiment vergeleken op teelteigenschappen en houdbaarheid