144 research outputs found
The importance of accounting for unobserved heterogeneity, state-dependence and differences in residual variances across groups: An application to Irish Farmers land market participation decisions
working paperLand is an essential input into agricultural production. A grwoing literature is
concerned with the factors influencing farmers’ land market participation decisions in
developing countries, with developed countries largely ignored. Current best-practise
in the land market participation literature is exemplified by Holden et al. (2007) who
use a dynamic model which allows for state-dependence and unobserved
heterogeneity. Much of the literature fails to adequately deal with these features of
land market decisions. In addition, a single model is used to represent all farm types.
In this paper, we firstly consider the factors influencing land market participation
decisions in a developing country, Ireland, while allowing for state-dependence,
unobserved heterogeneity and differences across farm tyes. We compare these results
to those that are obtained while ignoring state-dependence, unobserved heterogeneity
and differences between farm types. Our results suggest that some caution may be
warranted when these aspects are ignored when if fact they are present
The Rural Economy Research Centre
End of project report ENARPRIThe economic impact of trade policy reform receives less attention than the impact of trade policy on the environment. In part this may be due to the secondary importance attributed to environmental issues when economic consequences take centre stage. However, another consideration may be the difficulties of bringing together models which examine the economic impact of trade policy reform and models which can provide measures of environmental indicators.
This study combines a partial equilibrium economic commodity model with a model for the estimation of agricultural input usage and GHG emissions. The paper examines one aspect of the relationship between trade policy and the environment, namely that between agricultural trade policy reform and indicators relating to emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) from agriculture. The paper examines the impact of agricultural production levels and production practices on the level of GHG emissions from agriculture in Ireland under a Baseline of the recent reform of EU agricultural policy and an alternate scenario where trade policy reforms resulting from a future World Trade Organisation Doha Development Round agreement to reveal the extent to which there are significant environmental impacts which should be considered in addition to the conventional economic considerations.FAPRI-Ireland Partnershi
Impact analysis of the CAP reform on main agricultural commodities
End of project reportThis study has been carried out for the European Commission's Joint Research Centre to analyze agricultural policies at Member State, EU15 and EU25 levels as well as for Bulgaria and Romania. The modelling tool allows for projections and policy analysis (up to a 10 year horizon) for the enlarged EU.This study has been carried out for the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, under Contract no 150267-2005-FIED-N
Potential WTO Trade Reform: Multifunctionality Impacts for Ireland?. CEPS ENARPRI Working Papers No. 16, 7 June 2006
The economic impact of trade policy reforms on various sectors of the economy receives more attention than the effects on the environment. This may be partly owing to the secondary importance attributed to environmental or multifunctionality issues when economic consequences take centre stage. An additional consideration, however, may be the practical difficulties of bringing together models that examine the economic impact of trade policy reforms and models that can measure environmental or multifunctionality indicators. This paper examines one aspect of the relationship between trade policy and the environment, namely that between agricultural trade policy reform and emissions from the agricultural sector. The paper analyses the impact of agricultural production levels and practices on the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) and ammonia emissions from this sector in Ireland. The study combines an economic, partial equilibrium, agricultural commodity and inputs model (the FAPRI-Ireland model) with a model for the estimation of GHG and ammonia emissions from agriculture. The paper considers a potential reform of agricultural trade policy under a possible World Trade Organisation agreement, to reveal the extent to which there are environmental effects associated with such a reform that need to be considered in addition to the conventional economic ones
CAP reform post 2013: Examining the equity dimensions of agricultural support.
This research was supported by EU FP6 research funding, contract. SSPE-CT-2005-
021543.Using a dynamic multi-product partial equilibrium model, this paper firstly examines the potential impact of recent policy changes accruing from the mid term review of
the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 2003 on the cattle and sheep sectors in
Ireland. Secondly, this paper evaluates the potential impact of the implementation of
a CAP budget neutral, common EU flat area payment across all Member States. The
European Commission has signalled that it will be evaluating current differences in
the level of support between Member States as, for example, in the explanatory
memorandum accompanying the Commission’s Health Check proposals the
Commission argues that it is “increasingly harder to justify the legitimacy of
significant individual differences in the support level which are only based on past
support” (CEC, 2008; p.18). This paper demonstrates how there are significant
differences in the level of CAP payments per hectare across Member States, as
generally farmers in more prosperous Western and Nordic countries receive a much
higher level of payment per hectare than farmers in relatively poorer Central and
Eastern European countries. In relation to Ireland, similar to most other EU-15
countries, farmers benefit from the current inequitable distribution of payments and
the results indicate that any move towards equalising the level of payments per
hectare will have a significant negative impact on agricultural production and net
trade.This research was supported by EU FP6 research funding, contract. SSPE-CT-2005-
021543
The 2003 CAP reform: Do decoupled payments affect agricultural production?
working paperThe move from coupled payment policy instruments to payments that are decoupled
from production have made estimating future trends in agricultural output much more
challenging. Using a dynamic multi product partial equilibrium model, the overall
aim of this paper is to examine the potential supply inducing effect of decoupled
payments. This issue is important in the context of WTO negotiations, and, in
particular, in discussions surrounding the appropriateness of decoupled payments
being included as a ‘green box’ policy. The results suggest that farm operators, to a
large extent, do not treat these payments as fully decoupled and they do in fact
maintain a strong supply inducing effect on agricultural production. Findings suggest,
however, that this trade distorting effect is less than previously coupled payments
Study on the Functioning of Land Markets in the EU Member states under the Influence of Measures applied under the Common Agricultural Policy
End of project reportStudy on the Functioning of Land Markets in the EU Member states under the Influence of Measures applied under the Common Agricultural Polic
Cap reform: implications for Ireland
working paperIncreasingly farmers can be viewed as multifunctional providers of a range of
commodity and non-commodity goods that are valued by society. Changes to the
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) such as the shift towards decoupled payments not
only have significant effects on agriculture but also rural areas and society more
generally. Given that the CAP is likely to be the most significant driving force for
change in the Irish countryside, it will be important to assess the impact of policy
changes. Using a dynamic, multi-product, partial equilibrium model, this paper firstly
examines the potential impact of recent policy changes accruing from the Mid-Term
Review of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In addition, this paper highlights
additional potential reforms of the CAP and discusses their implications for the Irish
agricultural sector.European Commission 6th Framewor
An Econometric Model of Irish Beef Exports
End of Project ReportThis report summarizes research that the author undertook as part of his doctoral
studies in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Missouri-
Columbia.†
The policy environment within which the Irish beef sector operates is changing
such that the demand for Irish beef will increasingly be of a market rather than a
policy determined nature. This changing environment makes knowledge
concerning the demand for Irish beef important to understanding the economic
prospects of the sector.
The objectives of this research were thus two fold. The first objective was to
investigate the demand for Irish beef in the UK. The second objective relates to
how such consumer demand models are econometrically estimated.
The empirical results show that the demand for beef in general in the UK is not
price elastic and that the demand for Irish beef in the UK is price inelastic. The
expenditure elasticity of demand for beef in the UK is also inelastic. The
implications of this result for the Irish beef industry are as follows
Decreases in the price of beef in the UK will not lead to large increases in
British demand for beef.
Increases in expenditure on meats will see expenditure on beef increase
but to a lesser extent than other meats.
Increases in the price of Irish beef relative to the prices of other beef
products on the UK market will not lead to a large decrease in the market
share of Irish beef.
The relative insensitivity of demand for Irish beef in the UK to changes in
its relative price also implies that attempts to increase the Irish share of
the UK beef market will require very large reductions in the price of Irish
beef.
Given the current dependence of the Irish beef industry on subsidized exports to
non-EU markets, the results of this research imply that attempts to re-orientate
the Irish industry more towards servicing EU beef markets will require either large
price decreases, with the consequent impacts on the market based revenue of
the Irish beef industry and farmers, or alternatively, a movement towards the
production of beef products that appeal to the non-price concerns of EU
consumers and away from the production of a commodity product
Modelling the impact of the recession on greenhouse gases from agriculture in Ireland
working paperThe effects of the recession of 2009 have been felt across the economy of
Ireland. The rapid contraction in economic activity has had its effect on greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions as well. It is possible to model the recession’s effect on
agricultural GHG in the FAPRI-Ireland GHG model using the latest international
commodity price projections from Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
(FAPRI). The FAPRI-Ireland GHG model creates projections of future levels of Irish
agricultural activity and then uses a mix of national and default emissions factors to
convert this activity to estimates of annual GHG emissions from now to 2020. Our
model is shocked using post-downturn commodity price projections for a selection of
exogenous prices. The changes to these international commodity prices reflect the
international market response to the downturn, and as such they have an impact on the
level of GHG emitted by the agricultural sector in Ireland. This analysis finds that,
despite the depth and breadth of the recession, the impact on GHG emissions from
Irish agriculture has been muted. The impact of the shock is to reduce the projected
annual emissions from the sector by only 0.14 Mt by 2020. This compares to the 2.97
Mt reduction in annual emissions which the sector would have to achieve if, for
example, a reduction target of 20 percent on 2005 levels were to be imposed
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