Recruiting Diverse Smokers: Enrollment Yields and Cost

To help tobacco control research better include vulnerable populations, we sought to identify effective ways to recruit diverse smokers. In 2014–2015, we recruited 2149 adult cigarette smokers in California and North Carolina, United States, to participate in a randomized trial of pictorial cigarette pack warnings. The most effective means of recruiting smokers were the classified advertising website Craigslist (28% of participants), word of mouth (23%), Facebook (16%), and flyers or postcards (14%). Low-income and African American smokers were more likely to respond to interpersonal contact (including staff in-person recruitment and word of mouth) than were high-income and non-African American smokers (all p < 0.05). Hispanic and gay, lesbian, and bisexual smokers were more likely to be recruited by Craigslist than non-Hispanic and straight smokers (both p < 0.05). Of the recruitment methods requiring cost, the cheapest was Craigslist ($3–7 per smoker). The most expensive methods were newspaper ads in California ($375 per smoker) and staff in-person recruiting in North Carolina ($180 per smoker). Successfully recruiting diverse smokers requires using multiple methods including interpersonal, online, and other media. Craigslist and word of mouth are especially useful and low-cost ways to recruit diverse smokers

Twenty year comparison of reproduction and habitat characteristics of Gopherus polyphemus between two sites of varying management

The effects of fire on Gopherus polyphemus populations in a sandhill habitat, specifically their reproductive success, has not been extensively studied in Georgia. Here we present data on a long term comparison of the reproduction and habitat use under different management: long term active fire management vs limited management approach. Reproductive output, population structure, and habitat quality were compared over a 20 year period (1994 to 2014). The project took place at two sites: Fort Stewart Army Reserve (FSAR) which is managed aggressively for tortoises and George L Smith State Park (GLS) which only recently received some management for its population. Female tortoises at FSAR are significantly larger than females at GLS (GLS: 29.08±0.327cm, n=69, FSAR: 30.49±0.107cm, n=301, p=.0002). When the data was pooled, there was a significant difference in clutch size (GLS: 4.83± 0.177 eggs, n=44, FSAR: 6.565± 0.113 eggs, n=194). The linear regression of clutch size and carapace length show weak positive correlations for GLS and FSAR (r²=0.0129, 0.1401 respectively). Analysis of Covariance showed significant heterogeneity of the slopes suggesting that the larger females at FSAR are producing larger clutch sizes which is not seen at GLS (p=0.0368). Habitat results were similar to the 1994-1996 study. There was a significant difference in canopy and ground cover between the burrows and random points at GLS but not at FSAR. Tortoises at both sites are selecting habitat with low canopy and available ground forage however tortoises at FSAR are able to find more favorable available habitat throughout their range

Predicting successful long-term weight loss from short-term weight-loss outcomes: new insights from a dynamic energy balance model (the POUNDS Lost study)

Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1. Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, target energy intake, percent weight loss, and deviation of actual weight from expected were developed for months 1, 2, and 3 that predicted the probability of losing \u3c5% of body weight in 1 y. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and thresholds were calculated for each model. The AUC statistic quantified the ROC curve\u27s capacity to classify participants likely to lose \u3c5% of their body weight at the end of 1 y. The models yielding the highest AUC were retained as optimal. For comparison with current practice, ROC curves relying solely on percent weight loss were also calculated. Results: Optimal models for months 1, 2, and 3 yielded ROC curves with AUCs of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.74), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.81), and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.84), respectively. Percent weight loss alone was not better at identifying true positives than random chance (AUC ≤0.50). Conclusions: The newly derived models provide a personalized prediction of long-term success from early weight-loss variables. The predictions improve on existing fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds. Future research is needed to explore model application for informing treatment approaches during early intervention

Coronal Heating as Determined by the Solar Flare Frequency Distribution Obtained by Aggregating Case Studies

Flare frequency distributions represent a key approach to addressing one of the largest problems in solar and stellar physics: determining the mechanism that counter-intuitively heats coronae to temperatures that are orders of magnitude hotter than the corresponding photospheres. It is widely accepted that the magnetic field is responsible for the heating, but there are two competing mechanisms that could explain it: nanoflares or Alfv\'en waves. To date, neither can be directly observed. Nanoflares are, by definition, extremely small, but their aggregate energy release could represent a substantial heating mechanism, presuming they are sufficiently abundant. One way to test this presumption is via the flare frequency distribution, which describes how often flares of various energies occur. If the slope of the power law fitting the flare frequency distribution is above a critical threshold, $\alpha=2$ as established in prior literature, then there should be a sufficient abundance of nanoflares to explain coronal heating. We performed $>$600 case studies of solar flares, made possible by an unprecedented number of data analysts via three semesters of an undergraduate physics laboratory course. This allowed us to include two crucial, but nontrivial, analysis methods: pre-flare baseline subtraction and computation of the flare energy, which requires determining flare start and stop times. We aggregated the results of these analyses into a statistical study to determine that $\alpha = 1.63 \pm 0.03$. This is below the critical threshold, suggesting that Alfv\'en waves are an important driver of coronal heating.Comment: 1,002 authors, 14 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, published by The Astrophysical Journal on 2023-05-09, volume 948, page 7