Tools for Assessing Climate Impacts on Fish and Wildlife

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how climate-impacts modeling can be used to address management concerns, providing examples of model-based assessments of climate impacts on salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest, fire regimes in the boreal region of Canada, prairies and savannas in the Willamette Valley-Puget Sound Trough-Georgia Basin ecoregion, and marten Martes americana populations in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. We also highlight some key limitations of these models and discuss how such limitations should be managed. We conclude with a general discussion of how these models can be integrated into fish and wildlife management

Social-ecological Resilience of a Nuosu Community-linked Watershed, Southwest Sichuan, China

Farmers of the Nuosu Yi ethnic group in the Upper Baiwu watershed report reductions in the availability of local forest resources. A team of interdisciplinary scientists worked in partnership with this community to assess the type and extent of social-ecological change in the watershed and to identify key drivers of those changes. Here, we combine a framework for institutional analysis with resilience concepts to assess system dynamics and interactions among resource users, resources, and institutions over the past century. The current state of this system reflects a legacy of past responses to institutional disturbances initiated at the larger, national system scale. Beginning with the Communist Revolution in 1957 and continuing through the next two decades, centralized forest regulations imposed a mismatch between the scale of management and the scale of the ecological processes being managed. A newly implemented forest property rights policy is shifting greater control over the management of forest resources to individuals in rural communities. Collective forest users will be allowed to manage commodity forests for profit through the transfer of long-term leases to private contractors. Villagers are seeking guidance on how to develop sustainable and resilient forest management practices under the new policy, a responsibility returned to them after half a century and with less abundant and fewer natural resources, a larger and aggregated population, and greater influence from external forces. We assess the watershed’s current state in light of the past and identify future opportunities to strengthen local institutions for governance of forest resources

Historical forest conditions in frequent-fire forests on the eastern slopes of the Oregon Cascade Range

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2014Records from a 1914-25 timber inventory of the forested areas on two large Indian reservations reveal historical conditions at the landscape-level in fire-prone forests in the eastern Cascade Range in Oregon. Live conifers >15 cm dbh (diameter at breast height) were tallied by species and size class in a 20% sample of over 180,000 hectares (ha). Forests were predominantly low density relative to current conditions (roughly a third to a quarter of current mean density). Total stand density, large tree (>53 cm dbh) density, and ponderosa pine density were relatively stable across a wide moisture gradient (40-180 cm annual precipitation). Large fire- and drought-tolerant trees dominated basal area (>70% of total mean basal area) and were widely distributed across the landscape (present on 97% of transects). Currently ponderosa pine and large trees no longer dominate total basal area, and large trees are not as uniformly distributed across the landscape as they were historically. Higher-density values (>120 tph, 95th percentile), although rare, were widely distributed across the mixed-conifer habitat while treeless areas (transects on which no conifers >15 cm dbh were recorded) were almost entirely restricted to documented burned areas at higher elevations in colder, wetter habitat types. Historical forest conditions in frequent-fire forests may be increasingly useful in guiding contemporary forest management given 1) projections for increased drought; 2) increases in vertical and horizontal connectivity of forest canopies related to changes in land use; and 3) documented resilience and resistance of historical forest conditions to fire and drought-related stressors in fire-prone forests. This systematic sample of a large landscape provides information about variability in species composition, densities, and structures at multiple spatial scales, which are highly relevant to management activities to restore and conserve desired ecosystem functions

Influence of human pressure on forest resources and productivity at stand and tree scales: The case study of Yunnan pine in SW China

This paper examines human impact on stands and individual trees of Pinus yunnanensis growing near the small mountain villages of Pianshui and Yangjuan in southwestern Sichuan Province, China. In an effort to assess whether use of these forests was sustainable, we examined the effects of human use in two ways. First, we directly measured the effect of cutting branches, for fuel and fodder, on tree growth. We hypothesized that branch cutting would negatively impact tree growth. We established 12 plots on four hills and compared 14 pairs of trees, one tree in each pair with an apparently full crown and the other with a considerable portion of the crown removed. Second, we assessed stand and tree properties over a 500 m elevation gradient above the villages where we hypothesized that as elevation increases, stand and tree properties should show fewer human impacts. Although extensive branch cutting reduced the live crown, tree height and diameter, compensatory processes likely enabled trees to recover and to add basal area increments (BAIs) similar to those added by trees with full crowns. Trees and stands close to villages showed less growth and lower basal areas, respectively, than stands and trees at intermediate or distant elevations from villages. Areas relatively close to the villages showed considerable effects of human-related disturbances such as branch cutting, grazing, tree and shrub removal, losses of litter, and human and animal trails. Such areas had increased soil erosion and often loss of the ‘A’ horizon. Stands close to villages had younger trees, lower stand basal areas, smaller basal area increments, and more stumps. Our results suggest an increasingly vulnerable interface between occupants of these two villages and their surrounding forests

Too hot, too cold, or just right: Can wildfire restore dry forests of the interior Pacific Northwest?

As contemporary wildfire activity intensifies across the western United States, there is increasing recognition that a variety of forest management activities are necessary to restore ecosystem function and reduce wildfire hazard in dry forests. However, the pace and scale of current, active forest management is insufficient to address restoration needs. Managed wildfire and landscape-scale prescribed burns hold potential to achieve broad-scale goals but may not achieve desired outcomes where fire severity is too high or too low. To explore the potential for fire alone to restore dry forests, we developed a novel method to predict the range of fire severities most likely to restore historical forest basal area, density, and species composition in forests across eastern Oregon. First, we developed probabilistic tree mortality models for 24 species based on tree characteristics and remotely sensed fire severity from burned field plots. We applied these estimates to unburned stands in four national forests to predict post-fire conditions using multi-scale modeling in a Monte Carlo framework. We compared these results to historical reconstructions to identify fire severities with the highest restoration potential. Generally, we found basal area and density targets could be achieved by a relatively narrow range of moderate-severity fire (roughly 365-560 RdNBR). However, single fire events did not restore species composition in forests that were historically maintained by frequent, low-severity fire. Restorative fire severity ranges for stand basal area and density were strikingly similar for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and dry mixed-conifer forests across a broad geographic range, in part due to relatively high fire tolerance of large grand (Abies grandis) and white fir (Abies concolor). Our results suggest historical forest conditions created by recurrent fire are not readily restored by single fires and landscapes have likely passed thresholds that preclude the effectiveness of managed wildfire alone as a restoration tool

Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions.

We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes

Average Stand Age from Forest Inventory Plots Does Not Describe Historical Fire Regimes in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of Western North America

<div><p>Quantifying historical fire regimes provides important information for managing contemporary forests. Historical fire frequency and severity can be estimated using several methods; each method has strengths and weaknesses and presents challenges for interpretation and verification. Recent efforts to quantify the timing of historical high-severity fire events in forests of western North America have assumed that the “stand age” variable from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program reflects the timing of historical high-severity (i.e. stand-replacing) fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests. To test this assumption, we re-analyze the dataset used in a previous analysis, and compare information from fire history records with information from co-located FIA plots. We demonstrate that 1) the FIA stand age variable does not reflect the large range of individual tree ages in the FIA plots: older trees comprised more than 10% of pre-stand age basal area in 58% of plots analyzed and more than 30% of pre-stand age basal area in 32% of plots, and 2) recruitment events are not necessarily related to high-severity fire occurrence. Because the FIA stand age variable is estimated from a sample of tree ages within the tree size class containing a plurality of canopy trees in the plot, it does not necessarily include the oldest trees, especially in uneven-aged stands. Thus, the FIA stand age variable does not indicate whether the trees in the predominant size class established in response to severe fire, or established during the absence of fire. FIA stand age was not designed to measure the time since a stand-replacing disturbance. Quantification of historical “mixed-severity” fire regimes must be explicit about the spatial scale of high-severity fire effects, which is not possible using FIA stand age data.</p></div

Wildfire, Smoke Exposure, Human Health, and Environmental Justice Need to be Integrated into Forest Restoration and Management.

Purpose of reviewIncreasing wildfire size and severity across the western United States has created an environmental and social crisis that must be approached from a transdisciplinary perspective. Climate change and more than a century of fire exclusion and wildfire suppression have led to contemporary wildfires with more severe environmental impacts and human smoke exposure. Wildfires increase smoke exposure for broad swaths of the US population, though outdoor workers and socially disadvantaged groups with limited adaptive capacity can be disproportionally exposed. Exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with a range of health impacts in children and adults, including exacerbation of existing respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, worse birth outcomes, and cardiovascular events. Seasonally dry forests in Washington, Oregon, and California can benefit from ecological restoration as a way to adapt forests to climate change and reduce smoke impacts on affected communities.Recent findingsEach wildfire season, large smoke events, and their adverse impacts on human health receive considerable attention from both the public and policymakers. The severity of recent wildfire seasons has state and federal governments outlining budgets and prioritizing policies to combat the worsening crisis. This surging attention provides an opportunity to outline the actions needed now to advance research and practice on conservation, economic, environmental justice, and public health interests, as well as the trade-offs that must be considered. Scientists, planners, foresters and fire managers, fire safety, air quality, and public health practitioners must collaboratively work together. This article is the result of a series of transdisciplinary conversations to find common ground and subsequently provide a holistic view of how forest and fire management intersect with human health through the impacts of smoke and articulate the need for an integrated approach to both planning and practice