Controle biológico no Brasil: situação, desafios e oportunidades.

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Impacts devalue the potential of large-scale terrestrial CO2 removal through biomass plantations

Large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) are often considered a feasible and safe climate engineering proposal for extracting carbon from the atmosphere and, thereby, reducing global mean temperatures. However, the capacity of such terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) strategies and their larger Earth system impacts remain to be comprehensively studied—even more so under higher carbon emissions and progressing climate change. Here, we use a spatially explicit process-based biosphere model to systematically quantify the potentials and trade-offs of a range of BP scenarios dedicated to tCDR, representing different assumptions about which areas are convertible. Based on a moderate CO2 concentration pathway resulting in a global mean warming of 2.5 °C above preindustrial level by the end of this century—similar to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5—we assume tCDR to be implemented when a warming of 1.5 °C is reached in year 2038. Our results show that BPs can slow down the progression of increasing cumulative carbon in the atmosphere only sufficiently if emissions are reduced simultaneously like in the underlying RCP4.5 trajectory. The potential of tCDR to balance additional, unabated emissions leading towards a business-as-usual pathway alike RCP8.5 is therefore very limited. Furthermore, in the required large-scale applications, these plantations would induce significant trade-offs with food production and biodiversity and exert impacts on forest extent, biogeochemical cycles and biogeophysical properties

Testing Order Constraints: Qualitative Differences Between Bayes Factors and Normalized Maximum Likelihood

We compared Bayes factors to normalized maximum likelihood for the simple case of selecting between an order-constrained versus a full binomial model. This comparison revealed two qualitative differences in testing order constraints regarding data dependence and model preference

Response of selected plant and insect species to simulated solid rocket exhaust mixtures and to exhaust components from solid rocket fuels

The effects of solid rocket fuel (SRF) exhaust on selected plant and and insect species in the Merritt Island, Florida area was investigated in order to determine if the exhaust clouds generated by shuttle launches would adversely affect the native, plants of the Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge, the citrus production, or the beekeeping industry of the island. Conditions were simulated in greenhouse exposure chambers and field chambers constructed to model the ideal continuous stirred tank reactor. A plant exposure system was developed for dispensing and monitoring the two major chemicals in SRF exhaust, HCl and Al203, and for dispensing and monitoring SRF exhaust (controlled fuel burns). Plants native to Merritt Island, Florida were grown and used as test species. Dose-response relationships were determined for short term exposure of selected plant species to HCl, Al203, and mixtures of the two to SRF exhaust