Ethiopian Youth in Agriculture: Relative Deprivation, Well-being and Occupational Choices

Africa has the highest share of young people in the world relative to the total population, with the median age of the population under 25 years old, which is not expected to change in the coming decades. This high proportion of young people, combined with other factors, has prompted a sharp rise in youth unemployment in many Sub-Saharan African countries, including Ethiopia, with implications for Africa’s social and economic future. This thesis examines the current dynamics of youth employment, occupational choices, and factors driving these dynamics within the agricultural sector in Ethiopia across space, time, and gender. Using gender and age specific values of agricultural labor return from farm-level panel data collected from a sample of youth and households, the second chapter econometrically investigates the effect of marginal products of labor (or shadow wages) on youth agricultural labor supply across gender and farm locations. I show that changes in economic incentives (or shadow wages) matter for youth’s involvement in agriculture, but their impact differs for young men and women. Relative concerns are one mechanism through which income or wealth inequality is hypothesized to affect human behaviour, with consequences on well-being. Employing survey experimental methods and a socio-demographic survey, the third chapter finds that positional concerns for income vary across household members (youth, mothers and fathers) impacting on the youth’s well-being. Chapter four extends the analysis of relative concerns from income per se to consider social as well as assets (non-monetary) RD, using objective and subjective measures. The evidence suggests that while income RD has a motivational impact (resulting from a “positive externality”), assets, and social capital RD have deterrent impacts (resulting from a “status effect”) on the well-being of youth, though this varies across young men and women. The thesis also aids understanding of the implications of different forms of RD by examining their interactions with both the underlying drivers of occupational choices of young people and the occupational choices themselves. Using different estimation techniques, chapter five finds that RD is a strong predictor of occupational choices of the rural youth and their engagement in agriculture (irrespective of the RD and occupational choice indicators employed), together with an influence of the preferences and attributes of the parents.Afrika hat weltweit den höchsten Anteil junger Leute an der Gesamtbevölkerung; der Altersme dian der Gesamtbevölkerung liegt bei unter 25 Jahren . An diesem Trend dürfte sich laut aktuellen Prognosen auch in den nächsten Jahrzehnten nichts ändern. Dieser hohe Anteil an jungen Leuten hat , zusammen mit anderen Faktoren, zu einem starken Anstieg der Jugendarbeitslosigkeit in zahlreichen Ländern südlich der Sahara, so auch in Äthiopien, geführt – mit Folgen für Afrikas soziale und ökonomische Zukunft. Diese Arbeit untersucht die aktuelle Dynamik in der Beschäftigungssituation der Jugend, ihre Berufswa hl sowie die Treiber und Bedeutung dieser Entwicklung für die Landwirtschaft in Äthiopien, und zwar im Hinblick auf Raum, Zeit und Geschlecht. Das zweite Kapitel untersucht ökonometrisch die Auswirkungen von Grenzprodukten der Arbeit (Schattenlöhnen) auf das Arbeitsangebot junger Menschen in der Landwirtschaft, und zwar unter Berücksichtigung von Geschlecht, Zeit und des Orts der einzelnen Bauernhöfe. Dabei legen wir geschlechts - und altersspezifische Werte des Ertrags landwirtschaftlicher Arbeit (Schatte nlöhne) zugrunde, die aus einer Panelerhebung unter Jugendlichen und Haushalten auf Bauernhof - Ebene im ländlichen Äthiopien stammen. Die Ergebnisse, die wir mit der Fixen - Effekte - Methode und der Instrumentvariablenschätzung (IV - Schätzung) mit fixen Effekte n ermittelt haben, zeigen, dass Veränderungen bei ökonomischen Anreizen – wie sie Schattenlöhne darstellen – bei der Beteiligung Jugendlicher in der Landwirtschaft durchaus eine Rolle spielen. Dabei gibt es jedoch Unterschiede zwischen jungen Männern und j ungen Frauen. Die Ergebnisse legen Folgendes nahe: Wenn die Landwirtschaft für die Jugend attraktiver werden soll, müssen Arbeitsproduktivität und Arbeitsmöglichkeiten gefördert werden. Zudem ist eine strukturelle Transformation vonnöten, um die Unzulängli chkeiten und Starre des Arbeitsmarktes und anderer Märkte aufzubrechen. Jüngere empirische Studien zeigen, dass Menschen aufgrund einer Sorge um ihre eigene Stellung in der Gesellschaft aktiv werden. Aktuelle theoretische Arbeiten führen aus, dass der Erk lärungsanteil in ökonometrischen Analysen größer wird, wenn wir uns jenseits gängiger (rationaler) Entscheidungsmodelle bewegen und auch Relativinteressen berücksichtigen. Bezieht man relative Deprivation – also Entbehrungen – in die Berufswahl von Jugendl ichen mit ein, erhält man einen zusätzlichen Erklärungsanteil – wenn nicht gar einen alternativen Erklärungsansatz, um die Entscheidungen für die Berufswahl von Jugendlichen im ländlichen Äthiopien sowie die Ursachen der ländlichen Unterentwicklung in Äthi opien zu verstehen. Es wird angenommen, dass relative Einkommensinteressen (oder die Position betreffende Einkommensinteressen) bei Einkommens - oder Wohlstandsungleichheit das menschliche Verhalten beeinflussen – mit allen Folgen für das Wohlbefinden der I ndividuen. Kapitel 3 arbeitet mit einer soziodemografischen Umfrage sowie mit umfrage - experimentellen Methoden heraus, dass sich die Sorge um die eigene Stellung bezüglich des Einkommens unter den Haushaltsmitgliedern (Jugendliche, Mütter, Väter) untersche idet, was sich auf das Wohlergehen der Kinder auswirkt. Kapitel 4 weitet die Analyse der relativen Interessen vom reinen Einkommensbezug aus auf Aspekte sozialer Entbehrung sowie auf nicht - monetäre Faktoren (vermögensbezogene Deprivation), wobei objektive und subjektive Maße relativer Deprivation eingesetzt werden. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass einkommensbezogene Deprivation einen motivierenden Einfluss hat (der von "positiven Außeneffekten" oder "Signaleffekten" herrührt). Demgegenüber wirken sich Entbeh rungen, die das Vermögen oder das soziale Kapital betreffen (und sich aus dem Statuseffekt ergeben), eher negativ auf das Wohlbefinden der Jugend aus; dabei fallen die Aussagen nach Geschlecht unterschiedlich aus. Ein Kanal, über den sich relative Entbehru ngen im menschlichen Verhalten ausdrücken, sind menschliche Entscheidungen, zum Beispiel die Berufswahl betreffend. Das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit ist es schließlich, die Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Formen relativer Deprivation zu verstehen, indem deren We chselwirkungen untersucht werden – und zwar sowohl jene mit den Treibern, die der Berufswahl junger Leute zugrunde liegen, als auch solche mit den Berufswahlmöglichkeiten und Entscheidungen selbst. Kapitel 5 bezieht die tatsächlichen Berufe in die Analyse ein. Dabei stellt sich heraus, dass die relative Deprivation ein starker Prädiktor für die Berufswahl sowie das Engagement in der Landwirtschaft der ländlichen Jugend ist – und zwar unabhängig davon, welche Indikatoren relativer Deprivation und Berufswahl angewendet werden. Dabei ist ein Einfluss der Präferenzen und Merkmale der Eltern zu verzeichnen. Diese Arbeit kommt zu dem Schluss, dass die Beschränkung relativer Deprivation auf die monetäre Ebene in die Irre führen kann. Wer dies tut, erfasst nicht die tatsächlichen Effekte, die relative Entbehrungen auf das Wohlbefinden, die Berufswahl oder auch auf Arbeitsmarktanalysen haben. Außerdem deckt die Verwendung multipler Referenzgruppen und unterschiedlicher Messmethoden bezüglich des relativen Status mögli che Interventionsfelder auf, um positive externe Effekte zu verstärken. Dies ist mit konventionellen Forschungsansätzen nicht möglich. Zuletzt macht diese Arbeit deutlich, dass die gleichzeitige und kritische Berücksichtigung väterlicher und mütterlicher A ttribute die Wirkung einiger wichtiger Variablen beeinflusst – und dass die Indikatoren tatsächlichen und geplanten Engagements in der Landwirtschaft stark variieren. Studien, die derartige Daten für die Analyse arbeitsmarkt - oder migrationspolitischer Ents cheidungen verwenden, sollten diese Variationen und Einflüsse berücksichtigen

Institutional Bricolage as a New Perspective to Analyse Institutions of Communal Irrigation

Access to water supply in Ethiopia is one of the lowest in the world. In response, Ethiopia has developed a 15-year water development project for the period 2002-2016 in order to enhance appropriate and comprehensive water use policies and related institutional arrangements. The objective of this paper is to analyze the institutional aspects of communal irrigation in Ethiopia using the concepts of institutional bricolage. Based on two case studies and intensive literature review, the trust to ensure that the poor communities achieve economic efficiency, social equity in access to water and ecological sustainability simultaneously through the adoption of 'institutional crafting' does not seem to correspond with reality. It then challenges the universal application of the 'design principles' approach for its inadequacy in explaining the realities underlying the institutional formation of communal irrigation where collective action is more complex. The paper argues that the concept of institutional bricolage is an alternative approach to understand the dynamics and complexities of institutions in irrigation development. In the face of growing demands of irrigation water, there are key issues to consider through the lens of bricolage for appropriate development interventions aimed at institutional building: acknowledging the complexity of institutional building, ecological stress, historical factors, power relations, gender, access to other institutions and cultural repertoires embedded in the community. Development interventions which recognise the importance of the processes of institutional bricolage have great potential of success and enhance sustainable use of natural resources

Are rural youth disengaging from agriculture? Empirical evidence from Ethiopia

This study investigates the trends, patterns and prospects of youth involvement in agriculture in Ethiopia, by gender. It also analyses the determinants of youth labor supply in agriculture using household and youth sample survey data collected during 2010/11 and 2014/15 main agricultural seasons in Oromia, one of the designated high agricultural potential area of Ethiopia. Labor supply is measured as the total annual working days (in adult equivalent) of male and female youth members of the household allocated to on-farm and off-farm work. Based on this data the marginal products (shadow wages) of youth workers of each gender and net income (shadow income) are estimated, using a structural time-allocation models. Then the estimated shadow wages and shadow income are used as regressors in a structural model of youth labor supply. The results indicate that trends and patterns of youth involvement in agriculture vary across gender and work locations, and so do their marginal products. Whilst the on-farm participation of youth is declining across time irrespective of gender, the participation in off-farm agricultural activities is increasing for both. There is statistically no significant decrease in the total agricultural labor supply of both male and female youths. Further, we find that the effect of own shadow wage on labor supply is positive for male youth members, suggesting an upward sloping labor supply. However, the effect of own marginal product of female youth labor is negative, suggesting that female youth agricultural labor supply is backward bending. The findings challenge the presumption that youth are abandoning agriculture, at least in the survey areas. Policy implications of the results would be that changes in economic incentives such as shadow wages and shadow income matter for youth involvement in agriculture and off-farm agricultural employment opportunities could help to reduce youth underemployment

Urbanisation and rural development in sub-Saharan Africa: A review of pathways and impacts

This paper reviews the current state of literature on the impacts of urbanisation on rural development in the context of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with special emphasis to the pathways through which urbanisation affect rural economic development. Assessments of these effects diverge greatly. While some authors see urbanisation as strongly benefitting rural areas, for instance, through increased demand for agricultural goods and services, others highlight negative effects, for example, through the loss of livelihoods emanating from displacements and the conversion of agricultural land that may lead to urban sprawl. Given this complexity, a review that thoroughly analyses the causal relationships between urbanisation and rural development is warranted. To do this, the paper identifies seven pathways through which urbanisation affects rural development both positively and negatively: i) production and consumption linkages; ii) employment linkages; iii) financial linkages; iv) land market linkages; v) information and knowledge linkages; vi) social interactions linkages; and vii) environmental externalities linkages. The study suggests that recognising the importance of such linkages and incorporating them into the local and national economic policies is crucial for sustainable development. Overall, the review findings indicate that the impact of urbanisation on rural development in SSA is conditional and heterogeneous. It is conditional because countries need to be well-placed to reap the benefits of urbanisation, i.e., they need to have conducive infrastructure and institutional settings, as well as strong political commitment and leadership. When well-managed, however, urbanisation can play a pivotal role in reducing rural poverty, improving food security and creating opportunities for rural transformation. To this end, the review has identified research gaps that have important policy relevance in SSA. Addressing these gaps is imperative to harnessing the economic advantages of rapid urbanisation in a way that supports rural areas and promotes sustainable development

Rural Shadow Wages and Youth Agricultural Labor Supply in Ethiopia: Evidence from Farm Panel Data

The majority of the youth in Ethiopia live in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of livelihood. Using gender- and age-specific values of agricultural labor return (shadow wages), we systematically analyse trends, patterns and prospects of youth’s labor supply in agriculture across space (farm locations). We also analyse whether the household male and female youth members’ agricultural labor supply is responsive to economic incentives. We investigate these using shadow wages estimation techniques applied to farm-household panel data collected during the 2010/11 and 2014/15 agricultural seasons. The results indicate that trends and patterns of the youth’s involvement in agriculture vary across gender and farm work locations, and so do their labor returns. Yet the on-farm participation for youth members is declining across time irrespective of gender, whilst their participation in off-farm activities is increasing. The findings also suggest that changes in agricultural shadow wages matter for the youth’s involvement in the sector, but their impact differs for male and female youth. The results are consistent after controlling for individual heterogeneity, sample selection and instrumenting for possible endogeneity. In addition, we find that youth’s intentions and actual engagement in agricultural production vary greatly. This suggests that the frequent narrative of youth disengaging from agriculture may be a result of methodological flaws or data limitations. Taking into account the intensity of the youth’s involvement in family farm, own farm and off-farm work, the results challenge the presumption that youth are abandoning agriculture, at least in agricultural potential areas of Ethiopia. Instead the youth’s involvement makes an important economic contribution to the operation of the family farm. Therefore, it is necessary to invest in agricultural development to enhance productivity and employment opportunities; and structural transformation that addresses the imperfections and rigidities in labor and other input markets to make agriculture more attractive to youth

Labor-intensive public works programs in sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences and implications for employment policies

Public works programs (PWPs) in sub-Saharan African countries have re-emerged as an important policy to stimulate employment generation in addition to their protective role such as consumption smoothening. The paper reviews evidence on the extent to which empirical research can substantiate the claim that labor-intensive PWPs in African countries have important economic benefits. We also refer to the experiences with PWPs in India and China for comparison. We aim to answer the following questions: Do PWPs stimulate job creation and raise earning potentials of beneficiaries? And, how do these programs augment employment generation. Based on our review complemented with secondary data analyses, we conclude that in addition to their role as an effective anti-poverty instrument, labor-intensive PWPs have important roles in mitigating poor labor market outcomes and thus enhance employment creation. Yet we also find that more systematic investigations on short-term implementation outcomes of PWPs are necessary, and – due to externalities that are not captured by short-term assessments at the program level – long-run impacts on employment and development also need more research attention

Ecosystem tipping points due to variable water availability and cascading effects on food security in Sub‐Saharan Africa

The frequency, duration, and magnitude of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and variation in rainfall onset and cessation periods will continue to increase. Such stress may result in significant shifts in the functioning of ecosystems. As climate change affects the capacity of ecosystems to mitigate the effects of extreme events such as drought and floods, leading to disruptions in water supply and food production, or to the destruction of infrastructure, human well‐being is ultimately impacted. Chief among those impacts are those on the four dimensions of food security: food availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability. An interesting channel of impacts is through the observed and forecasted increase in the variability of water availability. This is said to cause uncertainty in agricultural production resulting in reduced productivity, food insecurity, weak economic growth and the widespread food poverty in Africa today. Due to overreliance on rain‐fed agriculture in Sub‐Saharan Africa, people usually engage in both temporary and permanent migration after consecutive years of bad harvests and reduced incomes from agriculture with migration acting as an adaptation strategy to climatic shocks. Food value chains can be significantly affected, something that the paper identifies as an area that requires further research mainly on the resilience of food value chains to water variability