Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

Background: More cost-effective HIV control may be achieved by targeting geographical areas with high infection rates. The AIDS Impact model of Spectrum – used routinely to produce national HIV estimates – could provide the required subnational estimates but is rarely validated with empirical data, even at a national level. Design: The validity of the Spectrum model estimates were compared to empirical estimates. Methods: Antenatal surveillance and population survey data from a population HIV cohort study in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, were input into Spectrum 5.441 to create a simulation representative of the cohort population. Model and empirical estimates were compared for key demographic and epidemiological outcomes. Alternative scenarios for data availability were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted for model assumptions considered important for subnational estimates. Results: Spectrum estimates generally agreed with observed data but HIV incidence estimates were higher than empirical estimates while estimates of early age all-cause adult mortality were lower. Child HIV prevalence estimates matched well with the survey prevalence among children. Estimated paternal orphanhood was lower than empirical estimates. Including observations from earlier in the epidemic did not improve the HIV incidence model fit. Migration had little effect on observed discrepancies - possibly because the model ignores differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents. Conclusions: The Spectrum model, using subnational surveillance and population data, provided reasonable subnational estimates although some discrepancies were noted. Differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents may need to be captured in the model if applied to subnational epidemics

Monitoring of Early Warning Indicators for HIV Drug Resistance in Antiretroviral Therapy Clinics in Zimbabwe

Monitoring human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance (HIVDR) early warning indicators (EWIs) can help national antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs to identify clinic factors associated with HIVDR emergence and provide evidence to support national program and clinic-level adjustments, if necessary. World Health Organization-recommended HIVDR EWIs were monitored in Zimbabwe using routinely available data at selected ART clinics between 2007 and 2009. As Zimbabwe's national ART coverage increases, improved ART information systems are required to strengthen routine national ART monitoring and evaluation and facilitate scale-up of HIVDR EWI monitoring. Attention should be paid to minimizing loss to follow-up, supporting adherence, and ensuring clinic-level drug supply continuit

HIV decline in Zimbabwe due to reductions in risky sex? Evidence from a comprehensive epidemiological review.

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Trends in Prevalence of Advanced HIV Disease at Antiretroviral Therapy Enrollment - 10 Countries, 2004-2015.

Monitoring prevalence of advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease (i.e., CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/μL) among persons starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important to understand ART program outcomes, inform HIV prevention strategy, and forecast need for adjunctive therapies.*,†,§ To assess trends in prevalence of advanced disease at ART initiation in 10 high-burden countries during 2004-2015, records of 694,138 ART enrollees aged ≥15 years from 797 ART facilities were analyzed. Availability of national electronic medical record systems allowed up-to-date evaluation of trends in Haiti (2004-2015), Mozambique (2004-2014), and Namibia (2004-2012), where prevalence of advanced disease at ART initiation declined from 75% to 34% (p<0.001), 73% to 37% (p<0.001), and 80% to 41% (p<0.001), respectively. Significant declines in prevalence of advanced disease during 2004-2011 were observed in Nigeria, Swaziland, Uganda, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe. The encouraging declines in prevalence of advanced disease at ART enrollment are likely due to scale-up of testing and treatment services and ART-eligibility guidelines encouraging earlier ART initiation. However, in 2015, approximately a third of new ART patients still initiated ART with advanced HIV disease. To reduce prevalence of advanced disease at ART initiation, adoption of World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended "treat-all" guidelines and strategies to facilitate earlier HIV testing and treatment are needed to reduce HIV-related mortality and HIV incidence

Independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, and improved complementary feeding, on child stunting and anaemia in rural Zimbabwe: a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Child stunting reduces survival and impairs neurodevelopment. We tested the independent and combined effects of improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), and improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) on stunting and anaemia in in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We did a cluster-randomised, community-based, 2 × 2 factorial trial in two rural districts in Zimbabwe. Clusters were defined as the catchment area of between one and four village health workers employed by the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care. Women were eligible for inclusion if they permanently lived in clusters and were confirmed pregnant. Clusters were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to standard of care (52 clusters), IYCF (20 g of a small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplement per day from age 6 to 18 months plus complementary feeding counselling; 53 clusters), WASH (construction of a ventilated improved pit latrine, provision of two handwashing stations, liquid soap, chlorine, and play space plus hygiene counselling; 53 clusters), or IYCF plus WASH (53 clusters). A constrained randomisation technique was used to achieve balance across the groups for 14 variables related to geography, demography, water access, and community-level sanitation coverage. Masking of participants and fieldworkers was not possible. The primary outcomes were infant length-for-age Z score and haemoglobin concentrations at 18 months of age among children born to mothers who were HIV negative during pregnancy. These outcomes were analysed in the intention-to-treat population. We estimated the effects of the interventions by comparing the two IYCF groups with the two non-IYCF groups and the two WASH groups with the two non-WASH groups, except for outcomes that had an important statistical interaction between the interventions. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01824940. FINDINGS: Between Nov 22, 2012, and March 27, 2015, 5280 pregnant women were enrolled from 211 clusters. 3686 children born to HIV-negative mothers were assessed at age 18 months (884 in the standard of care group from 52 clusters, 893 in the IYCF group from 53 clusters, 918 in the WASH group from 53 clusters, and 991 in the IYCF plus WASH group from 51 clusters). In the IYCF intervention groups, the mean length-for-age Z score was 0·16 (95% CI 0·08-0·23) higher and the mean haemoglobin concentration was 2·03 g/L (1·28-2·79) higher than those in the non-IYCF intervention groups. The IYCF intervention reduced the number of stunted children from 620 (35%) of 1792 to 514 (27%) of 1879, and the number of children with anaemia from 245 (13·9%) of 1759 to 193 (10·5%) of 1845. The WASH intervention had no effect on either primary outcome. Neither intervention reduced the prevalence of diarrhoea at 12 or 18 months. No trial-related serious adverse events, and only three trial-related adverse events, were reported. INTERPRETATION: Household-level elementary WASH interventions implemented in rural areas in low-income countries are unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia and might not reduce diarrhoea. Implementation of these WASH interventions in combination with IYCF interventions is unlikely to reduce stunting or anaemia more than implementation of IYCF alone. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Swiss Development Cooperation, UNICEF, and US National Institutes of Health.The SHINE trial is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1021542 and OPP113707); UK Department for International Development; Wellcome Trust, UK (093768/Z/10/Z, 108065/Z/15/Z and 203905/Z/16/Z); Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation; US National Institutes of Health (2R01HD060338-06); and UNICEF (PCA-2017-0002)

HIV decline in Zimbabwe due to reductions in risky sex? Evidence from a comprehensive epidemiology review

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Is Zimbabwe ready to transition from anonymous unlinked sero-surveillance to using prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) program data for HIV surveillance?: results of PMTCT utility study, 2012

Background: Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programs collect socio-demographic and HIV testing information similar to that collected by unlinked anonymous testing sero-surveillance (UAT) in antenatal settings. Zimbabwe evaluated the utility of PMTCT data in replacing UAT. Methods: A UAT dataset was created by capturing socio-demographic, testing practices from the woman’s booking-card and testing remnant blood at a laboratory from 1 June to 30 September 2012. PMTCT data were collected retrospectively from ANC registers. UAT and PMTCT data were linked by bar-code labels that were temporarily affixed to the ANC register. A questionnaire was used to obtain facility-level data at 53 sites. Results: Pooled HIV prevalence was 15.8 % (95 % CI 15.3–16.4) among 17,349 women sampled by UAT, and 16.3 % (95 % CI 15.8 %–16.9 %) among 17,150 women in PMTCT datasets for 53 sites. Pooled national percent-positive agreement (PPA) was 91.2 %, and percent-negative agreement (PNA) was 98.7 % for 16,782 women with matched UAT and PMTCT data. Based on UAT methods, overall median prevalence was 12.9 % (Range 4.0 %–19.4 %) among acceptors and refusers of HIV test in PMTCT compared to 12.5 % ((Range 3.4 %–19.5 %) among acceptors in ANC registers. There were variations in prevalence by site. Conclusion: Although, there is no statistical difference between pooled HIV prevalence in UAT compared to PMTCT program, the overall PPA of 91.2 % and PNA of 98.7 % fall below World Health Organisation (WHO) benchmarks of 97.6 % and 99.6 % respectively. Zimbabwe will need to strengthen quality assurance (QA) of rapid HIV testing and data collection practices. Sites with good performance should be prioritised for transitioning.National Research Foundation (South Africa

Additional file 1: Table S1. of Is Zimbabwe ready to transition from anonymous unlinked sero-surveillance to using prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) program data for HIV surveillance?: results of PMTCT utility study, 2012

Merged Data Set. (PDF 26 kb